Transforming the land sector

The Food Crises and Political Instability in North Africa and the Middle East

This paper examines the effects of international collaborative efforts on climate-friendly agricultural technologies on global food security. In particular, we use patent data on environmental technological innovations for OECD countries and global food prices from the period 1990 to 2016. Also, we investigate the impact of uncertainties in weather conditions in terms of rising global temperature created by climate change using data on global surface temperature from the Energy Information Administration and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Surface Temperature Analysis of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). We used both impulse response functions and variance error decomposition from a panel Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model to examine both the response of global food prices to shocks on the concerned variables and the decomposition of error variance in global food prices. First, our results show that international collaborative efforts on climate-friendly agricultural technologies reduce global food prices while increasing global surface temperature increases food prices. Regarding the variance decomposition of global food prices, results show that surface temperature followed by international collaborations in climate-friendly innovations and other environment-related technologies are the main drivers of forecast error variance in global food prices. The food price variance share associated with greenhouse gas emissions is less when compared to that of technological innovations.

Plant-based transportation fuels were the focus of extended criticism in the press, especially during 2008 when a portion of the blame for a spike in global food prices was associated with growth of the United States’ corn ethanol industry. The critique is based on an unsophisticated portrayal of the ethical issues at stake in the food security implications of biofuel. Three ethical critiques can be leveled at the food vs. fuel debate. First, although market drivers of biofuels indeed skew consumption of agricultural grains, this is not a problem that is unique to biofuels. Second, the critique does not reflect an adequate understanding of the way that rising food prices and changes in agricultural technology affect the food security of the poorest people. Third, although rising food prices could be beneficial to poor farm producers among the world’s poor, it is unlikely that benefits will materialize in the absence of concerted programs to deliberately select biofuel development strategies that are targeted to strengthen food security for poor and small-holding producers. An adequate agricultural ethics for biofuels will require commitment by both private and public sector biofuel developers to ensure that potentially positive attributes of biofuel development are realized.

This study aims to analyze the volatility of food prices, especially rice, in Central Java from 2020 to 2023. Food price volatility can have a negative impact on consumer welfare and costs. Indonesia, as a country that still imports basic food needs, is vulnerable to food price volatility. Spikes in food prices can cause inflation to rise and economic growth to decline, which impacts the condition of people’s households, especially the poor. This research uses a quantitative method using ARCH GARCH time series data. The results of this study are expected to identify and analyze the volatility of rice food prices, predict rice food prices at the end of 2023, and determined Bank Indonesia’s policies related to rice food price volatility. This research is based on the concepts of volatility, food prices, and inflation. Quantitative methods such as ARCH and GARCH models are used to analyze the volatility of rice food prices. Secondary data is used in this study, and the research steps include data collection, data analysis and interpretation, and presentation of results to provide recommendations

An upsurge in global food prices in 2008 led to significantly higher food prices across the developing world. Global commodity prices have since declined but still remain volatile, but at the same time local food prices remain high in many countries. This study examines the potential impacts of the rise in food prices on poverty—income based poverty and calorie-based poverty- focusing on Pakistan, and its rural and urban areas. For this purpose, we used HIES data collected in three waves 2005–06, 2007–08 and 2010–11. Price elasticities are computed using binary Logistic regression method. The study results show that price of wheat, rice, milk, meat, fruit, pulses appear to distinguish the status of a household. Price elasticities shows that urban households are hit harder than rural households in calorie-poverty model. Overall, rising food prices are likely to lead higher poverty in Pakistan, as the negative impact on net consumers outweighs the benefits to producers. Therefore, effective strategy for eliminating poverty is far more concerned with price increases. Safety net programs can be more effective, but geographic targeting and other investments to strengthen safety nets are necessary to ensure that fewer people are affected by future crises. Government policies oriented towards relieving the food price pressure on the Pakistani poor should aim at lowering the prices of wheat, rice, eggs, oil, milk, and chicken.

An upsurge in global food prices in 2008 led to significantly higher food prices across the developing world. Global commodity prices have since declined but still remain volatile, but at the same time local food prices remain high in many countries. This study examines the potential impacts of the rise in food prices on poverty-income based poverty and calorie-based poverty- focusing on Pakistan, and its rural and urban areas. For this purpose, we used HIES data collected in three waves 2005-06, 2007-08 and 2010-11. Price elasticities are computed using binary Logistic regression method. The study results show that price of wheat, rice, milk, meat, fruit, pulses appear to distinguish the status of a household. Price elasticities shows that urban households are hit harder than rural households in calorie-poverty model. Overall, rising food prices are likely to lead higher poverty in Pakistan, as the negative impact on net consumers outweighs the benefits to producers. Therefore, effective strategy for eliminating poverty is far more concerned with price increases. Safety net programs can be more effective, but geographic targeting and other investments to strengthen safety nets are necessary to ensure that fewer people are affected by future crises. Government policies oriented towards relieving the food price pressure on the Pakistani poor should aim at lowering the prices of wheat, rice, eggs, oil, milk, and chicken.

The Long-Run Impact of Biofuels on Food Prices

In this study, 5 different econometric models are constructed by determining the variables affecting food price increases in Turkey. Monthly data for the years 2005-2023 are used. The coefficients of the models are estimated by Dynamic Least Squares method. TUFE_GIDA (food and non-alcoholic beverages series), TUFE_IMG (CPI unprocessed food series) and producer prices of agricultural products (UFE_TARIM) are used to represent the food prices variable. In all models, the exchange rate increases food prices. Similarly, increases in diesel prices increase TUFE_GIDA and TUFE_IMG. As expected, increases in the export volume of agricultural products increase food prices, while increases in the import volume of agricultural products increase food prices. While increases in producer prices of agricultural products increase TUFE_IMG, increases in producer food prices increase TUFE_FOOD. World food prices have an increasing effect on TUFE_GIDA. The increase in fertilizer prices increases producer prices of agricultural products. The 2008 and 2018 economic crises and the dummy variable used to represent the Covid-19 pandemic also increase food prices. Keywords: Dynamic Least Squares method, Price Indices.

Asymmetric effect of energy price on commodity price: New evidence from NARDL and time frequency wavelet approaches

We study the relationship between the extent of participation in global agricultural value chains (GAVCs) and food prices at the country level. Using longitudinal data on a sample of 138 countries for the period 2000–2015 and a shift‐share instrumental variable design, we study how the extent of a country's participation in GAVCs in a given year relates to food price levels and volatility in that same country and in the same year. We document a mean–variance trade‐off, finding that on average, participation in GAVCs is associated with a decrease in consumer food price levels but an increase in food price volatility. Looking at a country's upstream (i.e., closer to producers) or downstream (i.e., closer to consumers) positioning in GAVCs, we find that food price volatility is associated more strongly with downstream participation than with upstream participation.

This paper investigated how sensitive food price is to changes in petroleum price and exchange rate in Ghana from January 1997 to August 2017. Interest rate was included as a control variable in the study since it may be a useful macroeconomic policy tool. Using Johansen cointegration procedure, Vector Error Correction Model, Impulse Response Functions and BEKK-GARCH estimations, the results of the study showed there exist positive long-run and short-run relationships between food prices and all the macroeconomic variables used in the model. Thus, increases in petroleum price, exchange rate and interest rate raise food prices in Ghana. The magnitudes of these increases were found to be very high during the food crises periods in 2007/08 and 2010/11. It was also found that effects of these food price spikes caused by shocks from petroleum price, exchange rate and interest rate are long lasting and do not decay easily with time. The results from the BEKK-GARCH estimation showed that food prices in Ghana exhibit time-varying volatility; caused by its own ARCH and GARCH effects as well as exogenously determined shocks from petroleum price, exchange rate and interest rate. Also, the results indicated that food price volatility shocks in Ghana are persistent. It is recommended that; policy aimed at food price stabilization must build national petroleum buffer stocks to stabilize fuel prices, improve exchange rate and interest rate management, build district, regional and national food buffer stocks, selectively target fuel subsidy at crop farmers and food processors, and remove bottlenecks in food marketing.

<sec><st>Background</st> The recent rises in global food prices have passed on to India and all the Indian states experienced huge price rise for all the major food items including rice and wheat. Recent studies showed that India’s impressive economic growth had not transformed to better maternal and child nutrition outcomes, and it is unknown whether the rising food price cause child malnutrition. We investigated the effect on food price shock on child nutrition in Andhra Pradesh, one of the largest Indian states where more than 85 million people live. </sec> <sec><st>Methods</st> We used a natural experiment study design with multilevel regression model. We used wasting as main outcome measure as this would better measure the effects of short-term fluctuation (price) of food intake on child nutrition outcome and price as the predictor after controlling for potential confounders such as socio-economic-demographic variables and episodes of natural disaster and social security programs. We utilised the food consumption and anthropometric measures from DFID-Young Lives data, a longitudinal cohort study set up in Andhra Pradesh in 2002 with a sample size of 2000 children of 6–18 months who had been followed in 2006 and 2009. This data was merged with the monthly price data from various market hubs collected by National Sample Survey Organisation since 2000, and we used the district level price of 12 highly consumed food items among Indian households. </sec> <sec><st>Results</st> The food price increased steadily from 2000 but had more than doubled after 2006. The per capita food intake had declined and the proportion of food expenditure to total expenditure increased after 2006. The percentage of children wasted was 19% in 2002 and 18.4% in 2006 but increased to 28% in 2009. An increase in the price each of the major food items increased the odds of wasting among the children, for e.g. one unit increase in price of rice resulted in 5% increase in the odds of wasting (adjusted odds ratio: 1.05; p < 0.001). </sec> <sec><st>Conclusion</st> The rising food prices adversely affected the childhood nutrition in India. The development programs to improve the maternal and child health will become ineffective if the policy measures to control the rising food price and to increase food security for people are not implemented. </sec>

How should monetary policy respond to large ‡uctuations in world food prices? We study this question in an open economy model in which imported food has a larger weight in domestic consumption than abroad and international risk sharing can be imperfect. A key novelty is that the real exchange rate and the terms of trade can move in opposite directions in response to world food price shocks. This exacerbates the policy trade-o¤ between stabilizing output prices vis a vis the real exchange rate, to an extent that depends on risk sharing and the price elasticity of exports. Under perfect risk sharing, targeting the headline CPI welfare-dominates targeting the PPI if the variance of food price shocks is not too small and the export price elasticity is realistically high. In such a case, however, targeting forecast CPI is a superior choice. With incomplete risk sharing, PPI targeting is clearly a winner.

A multisectoral, multihousehold general equilibrium model of the Thai economy is used to analyze the implications of recent increases in international food prices. Higher food prices, especially staple grains, worsen poverty incidence in Thailand despite the presence of large numbers of poor farmers, many of whom benefit from higher prices. The positive effect on the welfare of poor farmers is dominated by the negative effect on poor consumers. Of the recent price increases for rice, sugar, cassava, maize, soybeans, urea, and petroleum, the increases in rice prices raise poverty incidence the most, despite Thailand being the world's largest rice exporter.

The Tikkun Community should take justified pride in twenty-five years of fighting effectively for social justice and building from Jewish traditions and teachings in waging these fights. In that spirit I wish to pose what may seem like an out-of-nowhere question: are you following the current activities of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission?My guess is that almost everyone is answering “no.” This is a serious problem. Despite its obscurity as a federal government regulatory body, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is making decisions now that could determine whether hundreds of millions of people experience malnutrition, hunger, and perhaps even starvation in the coming years.Futures markets for food, oil and other commodities have long been used by farmers and others to maintain stability in their business operations and plan for the future. For example, under a “plain vanilla” wheat futures contract, a farmer could spend $50,000 planting her crop now, and agree now with a commodities futures trader to sell the crop at a fixed price when the crop is harvested.But such simple agreements became increasingly overwhelmed by big-time market speculators in 2000 when the markets were deregulated, along with the rest of the U.S. financial system. Deregulation produced severe swings in the global prices of food and oil.The most severely impacted victims of commodity price volatility are people in developing countries, where it is common for families to spend 50 percent or more of their total income on food. The United Nations found that sharp price increases in 2008—a 40 percent average increase across a range of different food items—led to malnourishment for 130 million additional people. Low-income people in developing countries have been further hammered because, even though global food prices did fall sharply from their mid-2008 peak, they are still today, on average, about 20 percent higher than they were in 2006. Moreover, just between June and September of this year, the price of wheat rose by 72 percent, demonstrating that the extreme food price spike in 2008 was not a one-time aberration.The Dodd-Frank financial reform bill that passed Congress in July does create a framework for effectively regulating commodities futures markets. However this new law is weak on details, leaving these decisions to the day-to-day regulators at the CFTC.The Dodd-Frank law includes a prohibition on any sort of agricultural swap trading—the single most active area for speculative gambling on food products. But Dodd-Frank also allows the CFTC to consider exemptions from this prohibition. Not surprisingly, large numbers of Wall Street lawyers have drafted letters explaining why these exemptions should be granted generously. Dodd-Frank will be rendered toothless if Wall Street prevails on this and related issues. Speculators will again be permitted to gamble on hunger.So let’s keep up the fight for social justice on all terrains, including the Commodities Futures Trading Commission.