Trends in forestry modelling.

Boreal forests play an important role in climate change mitigation, biodiversity conservation and the provision of vital ecosystem services. Changing climate is likely to increase the frequency and the severity of forest disturbances. Hence, increasing disturbances may offset the past and ongoing efforts to increase forest-based mitigation and halt biodiversity loss. Therefore, understanding the dynamics of forest ecosystems and predicting their responses to management, changing climate and disturbance regimes is vital.  While forest disturbance risk prevention measures i.e., adaptive management, offer solutions to safeguard future timber yields, the effects of adaptive management on biodiversity, climate change mitigation potential of forests and other ecosystem services have received little attention. In addition, it remains unknown whether climate change alters disturbance regimes in a way that cancels out efforts to increase and preserve carbon stocks and protect forest biodiversity. In this study we contrast the effects of mitigation versus adaptation forest management on the resilience of boreal forest ecosystems in a changing climate. We address the following questions: i) How timber harvests, forest carbon stocks and disturbed volumes develop in different forest management and land-use options that emphasize either adaptation or mitigation under different climate scenarios? ii) What are the synergies and trade-offs in ecosystem service and biodiversity indicators in adaptation and mitigation options? To address these questions, we used the process-based forest landscape and disturbance model iLand to dynamically simulate interactions of forest management, climate change and disturbances. We simulated combinations of seven forest management scenarios and three climate scenarios with ten replicate runs for 80 years in Finland. The forest management scenarios included a business-as-usual scenario and mitigation and adaptation scenarios with changes in rotation lengths and in the shares of deciduous trees in regeneration. Mitigation managements resulted in on average 6 to 15% higher carbon stocks over the simulation period compared to business-as-usual even when disturbances were accounted for but even halved the annual harvests. Mitigation management generally increased the amount of deadwood (3-21%) and large diameter trees (10-52%) compared to business-as-usual management but the severity of climate change reduced the positive trend on large diameter trees. Adaptive management reduced especially the bark beetle disturbances but, in some cases, the disturbed volumes were even higher than business-as-usual management because of increased wind damages. Generally, over the simulation period, adaptive management had a small positive impact on deadwood and mixed effects on large diameter trees.  Scenic beauty was impacted very little by climate change or management. Our findings highlight the complex interactions between disturbance risk prevention, biodiversity, carbon storage and sequestration and other ecosystem services. The results help to guide forest managers and policymakers in planning conservation and mitigation efforts, maximizing multiple benefits and enhancing forest resilience under a changing climate.

BackgroundClimate change may strongly influence soil erosion risk, namely through variations in the precipitation pattern. Forests may contribute to mitigate the impacts of climate change on soil erosion and forest managers are thus challenged by the need to define strategies that may protect the soil while addressing the demand for other ecosystem services. Our emphasis is on the development of an approach to assess the impact of silvicultural practices and forest management models on soil erosion risks under climate change. Specifically, we consider the annual variation of the cover-management factor (C) in the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation over a range of alternative forest management models to estimate the corresponding annual soil losses, under both current and changing climate conditions. We report and discuss results of an application of this approach to a forest area in Northwestern Portugal where erosion control is the most relevant water-related ecosystem service.ResultsLocal climate change scenarios will contribute to water erosion processes, mostly by rainfall erosivity increase. Different forest management models provide varying levels of soil protection by trees, resulting in distinct soil loss potential.ConclusionsResults confirm the suitability of the proposed approach to address soil erosion concerns in forest management planning. This approach may help foresters assess management models and the corresponding silvicultural practices according to the water-related services they provide.

Subalpine vegetation across the Tibetan Plateau is globally one of the most sensitive to climate change. However, the potential landscape-scale effects of climate change on subalpine forest dynamics remain largely unexplored. Here, we used a forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) coupled with a forest ecosystem process model (PnET-II) to simulate forest dynamics under future climate change in Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve in the eastern subalpine region of the Tibetan Plateau. We examined changes in the composition, distribution and aboveground biomass of cold temperate coniferous forests, temperate coniferous forests, deciduous broad-leaved forests and redwood forest under four climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 and the current climate) from 2016 to 2096. Our model predicts that by 2096, (i) cold temperate coniferous forests will expand and increase by 7.92%, 8.18%, 8.65% and 7.02% under current climate, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5scenarios, respectively; (ii) distribution of forests as a whole shows upward elevational range shift, especially under RCP8.5scenario and (iii) total aboveground biomass slowly increases at first and then decreases to 12%-16% of current distribution under RCPs. These results show that climate change can be expected to significantly influence forest composition, distribution and aboveground biomass in the subalpine forests of eastern Tibetan Plateau. This study is the first to simulate forest dynamics at the landscape scale in subalpine areas of the Tibetan Plateau, which provides an important step in developing more effective strategies of forest management for expected climate change, not only in China but also around the world.

Forest landscapes at the southern boreal forest transition zone are likely to undergo great alterations due to projected changes in regional climate. We projected changes in forest landscapes resulting from four climate scenarios (baseline, RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), by simulating changes in tree growth and disturbances at the southern edge of Canada’s boreal zone. Projections were performed for four regions located on an east–west gradient using a forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) parameterized using a forest patch model (PICUS). Climate-induced changes in the competitiveness of dominant tree species due to changes in potential growth, and substantial intensification of the fire regime, appear likely to combine in driving major changes in boreal forest landscapes. Resulting cumulative impacts on forest ecosystems would be manifold but key changes would include (i) a strong decrease in the biomass of the dominant boreal species, especially mid- to late-successional conifers; (ii) increases in abundance of some temperate species able to colonize disturbed areas in a warmer climate; (iii) increases in the proportions of pioneer and fire-adapted species in these landscapes and (iv) an overall decrease in productivity and total biomass. The greatest changes would occur under the RCP 8.5 radiative forcing scenario, but some impacts can be expected even with RCP 2.6. Western boreal forests, i.e., those bordering the prairies, are the most vulnerable because of a lack of species adapted to warmer climates and major increases in areas burned. Conservation and forest management planning within the southern boreal transition zone should consider both disturbance- and climate-induced changes in forest communities.

Geographical information systems in long-term forest management and planning with special reference to preservation of biological diversity: a review

This paper discusses the concept of spatial stratification (SS) as applied to forest modelling in general, and spatial forest modelling in particular. SS is a way of providing a geographically explicit forest description in forest modelling, or a way of accommodating spatially explicit management objectives and interventions. In the former, called a priori SS, stands of a forest landscape are spatially aggregated into a set of stand clusters which become input to forest modelling. The latter, called dynamic SS, utilizes stands as the input forest description upon which various spatial aggregations occur throughout forest modelling. Distinctions between the two alternative approaches are highlighted and implementation considerations are examined within the forest landscape management design context. The paper concludes that: (i) modelling techniques are directly linked to forest stratification approaches; and (ii) a priori stratification is seriously limited in spatial modelling for landscape management design where multiple and often conflicting spatial objectives exist. In view of these findings, the paper outlines an alternative spatial forest modelling approach using a combination of dynamic SS and heuristic optimization. Key words: spatial stratification, spatial forest modelling, heuristic optimization, forest management

Nowadays, Turkish forest management philosophy has changed from timber management to ecosystem-based multiple-use forest planning (EBMUFM) with the principles of “sustainable forest management” criteria and indicators drafted in a few national and international agreements. This study analyzed the temporal changes in forest ecosystem structure and a few forest values such as tree species, distribution of age class, development stage, canopy closure, species mixture, timber volume and increment, carbon storage and oxygen production in Sacinka Forest Planning Unit in the northeast corner of Turkey. To assess the patterns during a 21-year period (1985-2006), the necessary data were obtained from forest stand maps and evaluated with Geographical Information Systems (GIS). Results showed that the decrease of agricultural and settlement areas caused the increase of productive forests and the decrease of degraded forests. Bark beetles, which have common effect in Artvin, had less effect on the vitality of Sacinka Forest Planning Unit forests compared to the neighboring forest ecosystems. This forest ecosystem vitality and integrity level was a result of the mechanic and biological interventions against the beetle damages and appropriate silvicultural prescriptions. Key words: Ecosystem based multiple use forest management planning, geographic information systems, land cover change, carbon storage, oxygen production.

The cumulative impacts of human and natural activity on forest landscapes in Alberta are clear. Human activity, such as forestry and oil and gas development, and natural processes such as wildfire leave distinctive marks on the composition, age class structure and spatial configuration of the forest. Also, other processes such as climate change may be slowly and subtly modifying forest dynamics and may lead to important changes over time. Given the importance and ubiquitous nature of these cumulative impacts, a forest management plan that does not adequately take such impacts into account cannot be expected to adequately manage the forest, neither its components nor its processes. In order to address the question of cumulative impacts in the context of forestry, a landscape model was designed and built in order to simulate forestry, oil and gas, climate change, wildfire, and demographic change for the Whitecourt forest management area over a long time horizon. This paper presents the model and the forest landscape states it forecasted with cumulative impacts, and evaluates the fate of some key indicators of biodiversity and forest productivity. Simulations of harvesting as the only disturbance, the nearest analogue to the current approach to forest management planning, yield results that differ greatly, in every respect, from the results of simulations of harvesting combined with other disturbance agents. The simulation of multiple disturbance agents together allows for the detection of interactions among disturbance agents, and indeed, there are important interactions between the processes of fire and oil and gas. Results also show that climate and demographic change will intensify the impact of fire on the supply of timber and other values. Also, the continued development of petroleum resources will lead to an important erosion of the forest landbase. Overall, this paper makes a strong case for cumulative impacts assessment and the use of spatial and temporal stochastic modelling in forest management. Key words: cumulative impacts, forest management, climate change, landscape modelling, APLM

The instrument of forest planning is regarded as the bedrock of multifunctional forest management, serving as the nexus between forest management concepts and practice. Despite this pivotal function, its linkage to day-to-day forest management has rarely been studied. This case study employs the theory-methods package of practice theory and a variety of qualitative data from public forest management in southwestern Germany to explore the processes through which complex management objectives are substantiated and broken down to the stand level in the forest planning procedure. Additionally, it examines the role that the resulting medium-term management plans and professional relationships play in everyday forest management. First, the formal principles of forest planning and their manifestation in administrative structures are described. This rationalistic conceptualization is then considered in contrast to specific planning fieldwork and everyday forest management situations, which are much more reactively structured and shaped by local situated knowledge as a collaborative and collective practice. The analysis shows that forest management plans only partially function as the intended action-guiding instrument, and even fulfill alternative functions, while being most important for communicative and administrative purposes. Furthermore, the planning process often reveals the non-implementation of the management objectives. The observed responses to this discrepancy can only be understood by acknowledging underlying contextual and relational factors, such as the professionals' organizational positionality and the dynamic socio-material nature of the forest. The intrinsic relational nature of forest management and planning manifests itself in the form of actively cultivated professional social relationships and foresters acting as creative situational adaption artists. • Forest planning and implementation are studied from a practice perspective. • The objectives defined in management plans are often not implemented. • The plans mostly do not function as action-guiding instruments. • The rationalistic management conceptualization contrasts with its reactive practice. • Situated knowledge and relationship work are essential in forest management.

A property rights-based approach is proposed in the paper to underline the common characteristics of the forest property rights specification in ten ECE countries, the specific patterns governing the harvesting of timber in private forestry and the role of the forest management planning in determining the content of the property rights. The analysis deals with the private forests of the individuals (non industrial ownership) from ten countries, covering 7.3 million ha and producing yearly some 25 million m3 timber. The study shows that the forest management rights in private forests belong to the State and that the withdrawal rights on timber, yet recognised in the forest management plans, are in reality strongly restricted from an economic viewpoint. The forest management planning is the key instrument of the current forest governance system, based on top-down, hierarchically imposed and enforced set of compulsory rules on timber harvesting. With few exceptions, the forest ownersÂ’ have little influence in the forest planning and harvesting. The rational and State-lead approach of the private forest management has serious implications not only on the economic content of the property rights, but also on the learning and adaptive capacity of private forestry to cope with current challenges such the climate change, the increased industry needs for wood as raw material, or the marketing of innovative non wood forest products and services. The study highlights that understanding and comparing the regime of the forest ownership require a special analysis of the economic rights attached to each forest attribute; and that the evolution towards more participatory decision-making in the local forest governance can not be accurately assessed in ECE region without a proper understanding of the forest management planning process.Â

Incorporating uncertainty into forest management planning: Timber harvest, wildfire and climate change in the boreal forest

1. INTRODUCTION The devastating forest fires and catastrophic outbreaks of both native and introduced forest insect and disease pests, witnessed in recent times throughout North America, are in part a consequence of forest management practices of the last century. The frequency and intensity of these fires and pest outbreaks exceed all historical records and many view a deteriorated state of the forest environment as a primary cause for those problems. To address this issue President George W. Bush in 2002 launched the Healthy Forest Initiative (HFI). Subsequently the Healthy Forests Restoration Act of 2003 (HFRA) became law and thereby provided a new emphasis to forest management in the US. Forest protection deals with the agents that cause undesirable change in the conditions and resources of the forest environment. It is an applied component of forest management that traditionally includes research, development, and applications activities associated with impacts of insects, diseases and fire. Frequently issues associated with impacts of insects and diseases are considered together while fire is addressed separately. Specific direct activities of forest protection include assessing the impact of agents causing change in the forest environment; suppressing and preventing negative effects of destructive agents; monitoring forest resources and conditions; and management-planning, problem-solving, and decision-making. The HFI and HFRA will profoundly influence the forest protection agenda of the future. Defining the specific elements of that agenda will require examining insects and diseases within the spatial dimensions of the forest landscape and in the temporal context of the process of ecological succession. Accordingly, the goal of this chapter is to consider impacts of insects in forest landscapes within the framework of forest health management. Our specific objectives are (1) to consider the evolution of forest management models in relation to forest health, (2) to consider forest health in an ecological context, (3) to consider how insects serve as

Historic and current fire regimes in the Great Xing’an Mountains, northeastern China: Implications for long-term forest management

This paper presents an overview of the landscape management design process and focuses on changes in forest landscape dynamics as a result of different harvesting patterns and initial landscape structure. A case study involved two different forest landscapes, one quite fragmented and the other little fragmented, with both covering the same total area and having similar forest age class distributions. The effects of four different harvesting patterns (scatter, negative edge distribution, edge progressive and nuclei progressive) and two different initial forest landscape structures on landscape fragmentation were explored using a GIS-based landscape management model (LANDMAN). The model suggested that future landscape patterns vary greatly according to initial landscape structure as well as to the four harvesting patterns. The scatter harvesting pattern created fragmented landscapes, while the nuclei progressive pattern significantly reduced fragmentation, regardless of initial spatial structure. Likewise, the negative edge distribution and edge progressive harvesting patterns tended also to reduce fragmentation. The model indicated that for a given harvesting pattern, fragmentation was generally reduced in the initially fragmented forest, whereas the clustered forest became fragmented initially, but later recovered. In conclusion, the case study demonstrated that geographically prescribed harvesting patterns, in combination with indicators of forest performance and landscape fragmentation, provide an opportunity to design management for the creation of alternative forest landscapes of significantly different spatial structure. The prerequisites for on-the-ground forest landscape management are a quantitative description of the forest landscape, a computer model, geographically-prescribed harvest interventions, an understanding of spatial forest dynamics, and a GIS-based management design process.

Forest management plans are the bibles of forest management. On the basis of these plans, farmers play essential roles in forest cultivation, protection, and utilization. After the forest tenure reform in the 2000s in China, the status of farmers has changed. For example, collective management has decreased and household management has become a leading structure of operation and management. Farmer’s dependence on income from forests has increased, which is reflected in their increased participation in management. However, insights into farmers’ perceptions of and willingness to participate in the formulation of forest management plans are insufficient. This study analyzes the factors influencing farmers’ participation by using an econometric model based on 1752 samples of farmer households from 10 counties. The empirical results reveal that according to farmers, forest type and property rights influence their willingness to participate in the formulation of forest management plans. In addition, whether there is a village leader, the village distance from town, the circulation of forest land, the area of woodland, timber price, and forestry income have a significant positive impact on farmers’ willingness to participate in forest management plan formulation; the level of education and non-agricultural income have a significant negative impact on farmers’ willingness to participate in forest management program development. Finally, this study proposes to improve and deepen the reform of the forest ownership system, encourage land circulation, and give play to the role of village leaders in promoting the participation of farmers in forest management plans, so as to improve the efficiency of forest management.