Unmanned systems: An emerging threat to waterside security: Bad robots are coming

The "Training and Tactical Operationally Responsive Space (ORS) Operations (TATOO)" Classroom and Laboratory is currently being developed by Star Technologies Corporation and the U. S. Air Force Research Laboratory / Human Effectiveness Directorate. This paper discusses the laboratory hardware and software being developed to give voice to the Warfighter' s interaction with Operationally Responsive Space (ORS) satellites. ORS is currently defined by the Department of Defense as 'assured space power focused on timely satisfaction of Joint Force Commanders' needs'. The purpose is to accommodate the Warfighter's needs by improving space capability responsiveness and by delivering the capability to directly task satellites for communications and sensor data. The goals of the TATOO laboratory are to provide an environment for the development of procedures and protocols for tasking tactical satellites and to provide an environment for training the Warfighter on the tasking process, both of which support the ORS mission. ORS systems aim to enhance operational space capabilities, as well as support flexibility and responsiveness to the theater that do not exist today. ORS communication, navigation, and ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) satellites are designed to replace or supplement existing systems in order to enhance the current space force. These systems intend to rapidly meet near term space needs of the tactical forces. The ORS concept includes new tactical satellites specifically designed to support contingency operations such as increased communication bandwidth, and ISR imagery over the theater for a limited period to support air, ground, and naval force missions. The full potential of ORS is to support in- theater tactical forces in developing satellite tasking, data retrieval, and interface capabilities for mission operations from a Warfighter centered perspective, and to develop realistic training and simulation that allows development, demonstration, and assessment of ORS Concept of Operations (CONOPS) for tactical missions. TATOO provides a laboratory/classroom environment for the development, testing, and evaluation of ORS CONOPS for in-theater ORS operation.

Managers need a framework for assessing various kinds of risk and uncertainty that will continue to confront corporate decision makers as the 9/11 event plays out over the following months and years. The authors suggest an innovative scenario process, one that provides business continuity planning and medium‐term operational planning with a more rigorous analytical grounding, but without overburdening the process with excessive and ultimately counter‐productive complexity. The authors have introduced alternative scenario‐based tools to respond to this specific need for continuity assurance and near‐term operations planning. Case one: business continuity planning (BCP) for the management of one leading global financial services firm committed to a process of identifying and remedying gaps in the recoverability of its key assets. Workshops developed strategies that would close unacceptable asset recovery gaps in two scenarios. Case two: medium term operational planning for a professional services firm in the weeks that followed 9/11 evaluated the plausible range of impacts on their business and operations as the USA and the world took action and terrorist groups responded further. Case three: three years ago the US Coast Guard developed scenarios for very long range strategic planning for their long view project. The Coast Guard developed ten basic strategies from these scenarios. The fourth strategy was “Acquire full maritime domain awareness”. The goal was to give the Coast Guard the ability to acquire, track, and identify in real time any vessel or aircraft entering America’s maritime domain. Maritime domain awareness (MDA) turned out to be highly relevant for USCG decision making both before and after 9/11. Of all the major US federal services involved in the 9/11 response operation, the Coast Guard was singled out for its agility and preparedness.

: In the twenty-first century, the threat of asymmetric warfare in the form of terrorism is one of the most likely direct threats to the United States homeland. It has been recognized that perhaps the key element in protecting the continental United States from terrorist threats is obtaining intelligence of impending attacks in advance. Enormous amounts of resources are currently allocated to obtaining and parsing such intelligence. However, it remains a difficult problem to deal with such attacks once intelligence is obtained. In this context, the Maritime Threat Response Project has applied Systems Engineering processes to propose different cost-effective System of Systems (SoS) architecture solutions to surface-based terrorist threats emanating from the maritime domain. The project applied a five-year time horizon to provide near-term solutions to the prospective decision makers and take maximum advantage of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) solutions and emphasize new Concepts of Operations (CONOPS) for existing systems. Results provided insight into requirements for interagency interactions in support of Maritime Security and demonstrated the criticality of timely and accurate intelligence in support of counterterrorism operations.

This paper defines a process of predictive approach to evaluate the maintainability of a Commercial Off-the-Shelf (COTS)-based system(CBS) by analyzing the complexity of the deployment of the system. The approach integrates architectural dependencies and the system’s concept of operations to derive a network-based representation of the software system. A greater understanding of the deployment complexity is gained by using a Design Structure Matrix (DSM) to determine the number of architectural dependencies on a COTS product, or in-degree, for each COTS product in the system. The arithmetic mean of the in-degree for all nodes in the system is then compared with the perceived effort to maintain the system. The resultant measure – the in-degree mean – is useful in evaluating the maintainability of the operational system while the system is being designed and throughout its lifetime. Architects can use the approach to assist in COTS product selection and to make product trades to optimize the maintainability of the system. Integrators can use the approach to optimize product deployment and to determine the upgrade strategy for deployment. Finally, maintenance engineers can use the approach to estimate the effort required to maintain the system and to identify areas in which extensive product expertise is required. Because the approach requires only basic information about the system, it can be applied early in the design process and used until the system is decommissioned.

: Small unmanned systems provide great utility to military applications due to their portable and expendable design. These systems are, however, costly to develop, produce, and maintain, making it desirable to integrate available commercial off the shelf (COTS) components. This research investigates the integration of COTS components through the development of a modular unified command and control (C2) architecture for heterogeneous and homogeneous vehicle teams to accomplish formation flocking and communication relay scenarios. A vehicle agnostic architecture was developed to be applied across different vehicle platforms, different vehicle combination, and different cooperative missions. COTS components consisting primarily of open source hardware and software were integrated and tested based on the positional accuracy, precision, and other qualitative measures. The resulting system successfully demonstrated formation flocking in three of four vehicle combinations, with the forth still demonstrating leader follower behaviors. The system achieved at best a mean positional error of 0.99m, a standard deviation of 0.44m, and a DRMS of 0.59m....

Buoys are continuing to see increased use around the world for functions ranging from collecting atmospheric, meteorological and oceanographic data to providing early warning of tsunamis and renewable power generation. To accomplish these tasks, many of the current buoy systems attempt to couple cutting-edge sensors and advanced communication technology with relatively older structural designs and electrical powering. COBIA is a ldquonext generation buoyrdquo approach, designed as a low-profile, modular and fully reconfigurable buoy platform based on state-of-the-art maritime technology. COBIA is designed to support single or multiple payloads and, in its low-profile state, it can be deployed by many types of aircraft and watercraft. COBIA can support and enhance a wide range of missions, from measurement of oceanic, acoustic, meteorological and biological data to the detection and monitoring of maritime hazards, including oil or chemical spills. With COBIA's multiple and modular communication protocols and technologies, COBIA buoys can serve as gateway network relays between air, surface and subsurface, as well as provide sensor monitoring and detection points for harbor security. COBIA's modular design greatly simplifies configuration and reconfiguration for specific tasks, while it's use of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) components further simplifies repairs and upgrades, thereby lowering engineering, deployment and life-cycle costs. The COBIA next generation buoy solution meets the emergent need for a rapidly designed, fabricated and deployable buoy that can handle the rigors of ocean use. They can be small to allow transportability by a varied number of platforms and are multi-functional with reduced acquisition and operations and maintenance costs. A flexible and modular COBIA buoy-based solution can be easily and rapidly developed for virtually any maritime mission.

In its effort to develop unmanned autonomous systems research capabilities, the college of engineering is adding a rotary wing UAV to its research activities. This paper demonstrates the use of Maxi Joker 3 commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) electric RC helicopter as a platform and implementing it with COTS autopilot system to serve as a benchmark for future AUS rotary wing in-house autopilot development. Many problems and issues were experienced during the flights, such us mechanical vibrations, acoustic noise, and autopilot failure during the flight and consequently crashing the platform. All of those problems were solved inside the lab on a test stand which was designed to fly and test the helicopter avoiding crashing and without a skilled pilot sometimes.

Lightning-induced wildfires lead to significant loss of life and extensive property damage worldwide. This issue is especially critical in southeast Australia, where such wildfires account for 80-90% of the total area burned, emphasising the need for a comprehensive understanding of the contributing factors and mechanisms that drive these events. This study aims to investigate the complex interactions between climate, topography, lightning activity, and fire events in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. By analysing comprehensive datasets from 2017-2021, including ignition records, meteorological data, topographical information, and fuel characteristics, this research seeks to identify the key factors influencing lightning-attributed wildfires and predict the probability of lightning-caused fire occurrence. A Random Forest model is trained and tested to estimate the probability of fires caused by lightning strikes. Model performance was assessed through the Receiver Operating Characteristic, with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) around 0.7 in the validation datasets, indicating a good agreement between the estimated probabilities and the reported lightning-caused fires. The identified key factors that influence lightning fire ignitions include humidity, elevation, temperature, rainfall, soil moisture, and fuel moisture, highlighting the dominant influence of weather variables on wildfire ignitions. The preliminary results demonstrate a potential link between the geographic distribution of lightning-induced fires and the temperate climate zones, possibly due to the presence of dense vegetation and seasonal weather patterns. Our ongoing efforts focus on further refining the predictive model and conducting a more extensive analysis of the data to enhance our understanding of the dynamics of lightning-induced wildfires. Ultimately the study will provide insights for effective risk management and mitigation of lightning-caused wildfires in the regions prone to wildfires.

Various robotic tooling options have been evaluated for the NRIC DOME concept of operations (ConOps). Framatome was contracted to develop a wide-ranging list of commercial off the shelf (COTS) and custom robotic systems to be considered for performing the DOME ConOps functions. Subsequent project tasks from Framatome narrowed down the list and scored the most viable options. The abbreviated list, and associated scoring, has been reviewed and assessed to provide formal recommendations for the robotic ConOps functions of DOME. The overhead telescoping mast & Kraft arm assembly is recommended as the primary system for reactor demobilization and removal. The estimated cost is $\$700$K with a timeline to develop and deliver of about 2.5 years. The mast & Kraft arm would still require an overhead lift system for mobilization and installation. Either the refurbished polar crane or a new gantry crane delivery platform could both serve as the overhead lift and delivery system. The estimated costs for the refurbishment polar crane and new gantry crane systems are, respectively, $\$4.4$M and $\$3$M with about 2.5 years to develop and deliver. A Brokk + Kraft crawler & arm is recommended as a secondary robotic system to support the overhead mast & Kraft arm system. The Brokk + Kraft crawler & arm would cost an estimated $\$726$k and would take about 1.5 years to develop and deliver. The Boston Dynamics SPOT robot is also recommended for the in-service monitoring during experimentation operations. The estimated cost is $\$220$K with a timeline to deliver of 8-14 months. The Elios 3 aerial drone is recommended to perform large area radiation dose rate mapping and visual inspections. The estimated cost is a $\$100$K and will also need about 8-14 months to develop and deliver. A mockup rig is also recommended to be procured an employed to test & verify the robotic capabilities as well as provide needed training for operations personnel. It is estimated that a mockup rig would cost about $\$500$k and would take up to a year to develop and build.

25 - The Terrorist Threat

The 'poor man's air force' is a term for employing commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) hobbyist drones or uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) to strategic level military effect, and that effect cannot be understated (Waters, 2018; Nadeau, 2022; Shift, 2023). The ability for terror organisations to coordinate multiple layers of effects, including using COTS drones, to destroy Command and Control (C2) nodes in Israel causes alarm. Couple this with the use of COTS drones for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, strike and battle-damage assessment missions, and the threat posed by what are essentially toys is alarmingly real.

In this paper, we assess the feasibility of the neoPASCAL thermal design by performing thermal analysis. NeoPASCAL is a network of compact solar-powered landers on Mars which aim to validate Mars General Circulation Models (GCMs) by measuring the diurnal variations in surface pressure. It is a modern revision of the original Pascal mission proposed in 1996, with each science station being ten times smaller in size and mass (a kg or less) by using miniaturised commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) electronic components and satellite platforms (i.e., Boardsat and CubeSat platforms). Despite the harsh thermal environments, the analysis shows that the Boardsat-based model can survive at ≤ ±60° latitude by using a large flexible-solar-cells-attached sail that was originally designed to attain soft landing. If successful, such a network would provide an unprecedented set of global meteorological data that can be used to investigate various meteorological phenomena including the general circulation.

In this paper, we assess the feasibility of the neoPASCAL thermal design by performing thermal analysis. NeoPASCAL is a network of compact solar-powered landers on Mars which aim to validate Mars General Circulation Models (GCMs) by measuring the diurnal variations in surface pressure. It is a modern revision of the original Pascal mission proposed in 1996, with each science station being ten times smaller in size and mass (a kg or less) by using miniaturised commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) electronic components and satellite platforms (i.e., Boardsat and CubeSat platforms). Despite the harsh thermal environments, the analysis shows that the Boardsat-based model can survive at ≤ ±60° latitude by using a large flexible-solar-cells-attached sail that was originally designed to attain soft landing. If successful, such a network would provide an unprecedented set of global meteorological data that can be used to investigate various meteorological phenomena including the general circulation.

An autonomous, adaptive navigation system, tightly coupled with the overall mission management system, can provide unmanned systems with the capability to autonomously change and execute mission plans. Legislative issues, the difficulty to meet the extremely high reliability requirements of an autonomous collision avoidance function and the associated development and certification challenges can all be reasons to limit the authority of such an adaptive system by involving/requiring a human operator at the decision making level. The role of the human operator is to make decisions during situations in which significant changes in the navigation plan are needed to accomplish the mission. Such a concept of operation imposes specific challenges that must be addressed during the design of the systems that support the operator with this supervisory task. The paper starts with addressing the commonality in the associated challenges between nautical and aeronautical platforms and between manned and unmanned systems. It will be illustrated how during the past 60 years, research in both the nautical and the aeronautical domain has addressed aspects of these challenges and how developments in the area of sensors, processors and display capabilities increased the possibilities to both increase system autonomy and keep the human operator involved with the required authority. Following this background, it will be discussed how components of a system designed to support a UAS pilot with the separation assurance task have been re-used in the realization of a prototype operator support system for an unmanned vessel, the CSHIELD platform. Results of an initial simulation-based evaluation are also presented.

Marine security risk management in high-risk zones is critical for safeguarding vital energy infrastructure, particularly in regions like West Africa, where Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) terminals face complex and evolving threats. This abstract presents an overview of marine security challenges associated with LNG terminals in West African high-risk maritime zones and distills lessons learned from recent security incidents and mitigation strategies. West African coastal waters are characterized by a heightened risk environment due to piracy, armed robbery at sea, smuggling, and maritime terrorism. LNG terminals, as strategic energy assets, are attractive targets for criminal and militant groups seeking to disrupt energy supply chains and extract economic or political leverage. The unique vulnerabilities of LNG terminals such as their fixed location, dependence on maritime logistics, and proximity to international shipping lanes require robust risk management approaches tailored to the maritime context. This study explores the framework for marine security risk management implemented at several West African LNG terminals, focusing on threat identification, risk assessment, security governance, and operational controls. Key elements include the integration of maritime domain awareness technologies, such as Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) and radar surveillance, coordinated security patrols, and collaboration with regional naval forces and international partners. The importance of stakeholder engagement spanning terminal operators, government agencies, private security firms, and local communities is underscored as a critical factor in sustaining security and resilience. Lessons from West African LNG terminals highlight the necessity of adaptive security strategies that combine technological innovation with intelligence-led operations and community cooperation. The challenges posed by jurisdictional complexities and resource constraints emphasize the need for comprehensive policy frameworks and capacity building at national and regional levels. The findings contribute to the broader discourse on marine security in high-risk zones by providing practical insights into effective risk mitigation tailored to energy infrastructure. These lessons offer valuable guidance for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and security practitioners seeking to protect critical maritime assets in similarly vulnerable regions worldwide.