Using Expert Knowledge to Develop a Vulnerability and Adaptation Framework and Methodology for Application in Tropical Island Communities

Purpose Bangladesh is highly exposed to climatic hazards, placing communities closely connected to the natural environment, such as fishermen, at significant risk. This study aims to understand the effect of climate change on the livelihood of the fisherman community. Design/methodology/approach This study assessed the vulnerability of fishermen communities in three unions of Shyamnagar Upazila: Munshiganj, Burigoalini and Gabura, using the livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) IPCC framework. A total of 219 household-level interviews were conducted. Findings The LVI was found to be 0.5, indicating a high level of vulnerability across all three unions. Key contributing factors included water insecurity, poor health access, natural disasters and climate variability. The climate vulnerability index (CVI) score was minus 0.19, showing high climate vulnerability, as adaptive capacity (0.342) was notably lower than sensitivity (0.477) and exposure (0.748). Among the unions, Gabura exhibited the highest climate vulnerability. Despite these challenges, alternative livelihood practices and local adaptation strategies were observed as important mechanisms helping communities cope with ongoing climatic stressors. Findings highlight the urgent need for targeted adaptation support and sustainable livelihood options in coastal disaster-prone areas. Originality/value The coastal fisherman communities are among the first to be affected by climate change. While studies were done on coastal communities, their livelihood vulnerability to climate change and adaptive capacity has not been assessed thoroughly. This study will explore the interactive relationship between livelihood and climate vulnerability, and it will portray the adaptive dynamics of coastal fishermen.

This chapter discusses vulnerability and adaptation of the coastal communities to climate change impacts with the aim of contributing to an understanding on how vulnerability and livelihoods are constructed among coastal communities, with particular focus on Mtwara communities along the southern coast of Mtwara Region, Tanzania. This study aimed at identifying pathways to reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience of livelihoods of the concerned coastal communities. The study was conducted in four villages purposively selected based on the existing diversity reflecting issues related to fishing as well as farming livelihoods. The selection of the villages was also made to cover both the coastal strip and the nearby zone, to capture issues related to coastal fishing and farming. A total of 200 households were included in the survey, 122 of whom were males. The research methods used in the two phases included key informant interviews, FGDs, transect walks and on-sight observations. The study also employed an integrated assessment of socioecological systems’ vulnerability to climate change and variability as well as adaptive capacity and the implications of these in resilience. Climatic data from the TMA were also obtained in order to complement the observations from the field. Data from this study show that challenges and impacts associated with climate change are evident in this coastal environment of Tanzania. Common impacts included destruction of coral reefs, coastal erosion, destruction of coastal infrastructures and human settlements. They also included intrusion of seawater into freshwater wells and crop fields in the areas. Sea level rise was probably the most challenging climate change issue in the region since it threatened not only the livelihoods of the already stressed coastal communities but also the economy and integrity of the coastal ecosystems and resources.

Background: Climate change, primarily driven by global warming, has substantial negative impacts on coastal areas, particularly affecting the livelihoods of fishing communities. Rising temperatures, changing weather patterns, and sea-level rise have made fishing activities increasingly challenging. These environmental changes lead to reduced fish stocks, declining income from fishing, and broader socio-economic disruptions for coastal populations. Furthermore, the health of fishing communities is at risk due to the scarcity of clean water and decreased nutritional intake resulting from reduced fish catches. Objective: This study aims to systematically review the scientific literature on the impacts of climate change on fishing communities and coastal areas, with particular emphasis on the socio-economic and health consequences, as well as adaptation strategies. Methods: A Systematic Literature Review (SLR) was conducted using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Relevant scientific articles published between 2010 and 2024 were collected and analyzed. The inclusion criteria focused on studies addressing climate change, its impacts on coastal communities, and adaptation efforts by fishers. Results: The review findings indicate that climate change has far-reaching negative impacts on the livelihoods of coastal fishing communities. From a health perspective, climate change exacerbates the risk of disease transmission due to limited access to clean water and contributes to malnutrition resulting from reduced fish availability. Economically, decreased fish catches directly reduce fishermen's incomes, increasing their vulnerability. The findings also highlight the importance of adaptive capacity in maintaining the resilience of fishing communities, ensuring their economic activities and health status are not severely compromised. Conclusion: Climate change poses serious threats to the health, economic stability, and social well-being of fishing communities. Enhancing the adaptability of fishermen is crucial to mitigate these impacts. In addition, policymakers must develop comprehensive, multi-sectoral adaptation strategies that address the entire chain of vulnerability—from environmental changes to economic and health outcomes. Such policies should be implemented holistically, from upstream planning to downstream execution, to ensure they effectively support the resilience of affected coastal populations. Keywords: Climate Change, Global Warming, Socioeconomic Factors, Coastal Communities, Indonesia

Assessment of climate change vulnerability of farm households in Pyapon District, a delta region in Myanmar

BackgroundUnlike the studies undertaken on agricultural and hydrological sectors, focused climate change vulnerability researches in urban centers in Ethiopia is not widely available and of recent history. However, as many signals of climate change vulnerability started to happen in urban centers as well, it is inevitable to analyze, quantify, map, prioritize and be prepared for adaptation measures. This study is therefore, tried to assess, quantify and map climate change vulnerability in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, by integrating two climate change vulnerability assessment models, namely, the Sullivan and Meigh’s Model of composite climate change vulnerability index and the IPCC’s approach of vulnerability assessment which comprises exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Fifteen sub-components of vulnerability indicators were identified in ten sub-cities (Addis Ketema, Arada, Akaki-Kality, Bole, Gulelle, Kirkos, Kolfe-Keraniyo, Lideta, Nifasilk-Lafto and Yeka) of Addis Ababa. Due to the scale, degree, amount and unit of measurement for the selected indicators varied, their values were normalized to a number which ranges between 0 and 1, indicating as the values increased to 1, vulnerability to climate change increases. The study uses Iyengar and Sudarshan’s unequal weighting system, to assign a weight to all indicators. The results were mapped using ArcGIS 10.2 package.ResultsThe results indicated that the ten sub-cities in Addis Ababa were found in different levels of vulnerability to climate change. The exposure and sensitivity were highest for Addis Ketema, Arada, and Lideta which are found in central parts of the city, with a normalization index value greater than 0.5. The adaptive capacity index is the highest in Gulelle, Bole, and Arada sub-cities. These sub-cities have better quality houses, well-planned districts, good infrastructural facilities and good coverage of green areas compared to others. The overall climate change vulnerability was the highest (normalized index > 0.5) in Arada, Addis Ketema and Lideta, due to the adaptation capacity is the lowest compared to other sub-cities.ConclusionAddis Ababa is vulnerable to climate change impacts and the degree of vulnerability is underpinned by the interaction of multiple factors mainly adaptive capacities of sub-cities, location based characteristics and changes in climatic parameters. These present a need to strengthen mitigation and adaptation activities and prioritize sub cities for intervention based on the degree of vulnerability. It is also understood that the Sullivan and Meigh’s Model and IPCC’s approach for climate change analyses, could be used simultaneously for preparing vulnerability index per different geographical locations.

A Hybrid Modelling Framework for Ecosystem-Based Climate Change Adaptation Using System Dynamics and Bayesian Networks

<p><strong>Abstract</strong>: Changes in the global oceanic system have already negatively affected the world’s marine life and the livelihoods of many coastal communities across the world, including in the Middle East' and Eastern Africa's Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Coastal communities in Somalia and Yemen for instance, have been particularly affected by extreme environmental events (EEEs), with an increase in the frequency of tropical cyclones over the past 20 years. Using expert elicitation as a method to generate data to assess and quantify a specific issue in the absence of sufficient and/or reliable data, the authors interviewed selected specialists in or from Somalia and Yemen, from diverse fields of expertise related to climate change, extreme environmental events, disaster risk reduction, and humanitarian affairs. Ten experts followed the elicitation protocol and answered a specific series of questions in order to better quantify the expectable mid-to-long-term climatic and humanitarian levels of risks, impacts, and consequences that climate change and related issues (e.g., sea-level rise, tropical cyclones, and sea surge) may generate in coastal areas along the Gulf of Aden's coastal cities of Aden and Bossaso, in Yemen and Somalia, respectively.</p><p>The findings indicate that there is cause for significant concern as climate change is assessed by all interviewees - irrespective of their background -, as very likely to hold a negative to a devastating impact on (fresh) water security, food security, public health, social conflicts, population displacement, and eventually political stability; and to strongly worsen the humanitarian situations in Somalia and Yemen, both in the medium-term (i.e., 2020-2050) and the long-term (i.e., 2020-2100). The authors call on the scientific community to further research the issue of climate change in the understudied coastal areas of the Gulf of Aden, and on the international community to pro-actively and urgently help the local populations and relevant authorities to rapidly and strongly build up their adaptation capacities, especially in the niche of coastal EEEs.</p>

People like living near the sea. From early human settlements to many of today's great cities, proximity to the oceans and estuaries of the world has brought advantages such as trade, transport, and easy access to marine resources. Coastal areas have also long been favorite holiday destinations, with resorts and homes with sea views lining beaches and cliffs everywhere. However, people living along coasts will be among the first to be affected by the rising sea levels and increasingly frequent severe storms that are predicted consequences of global climate change. Although no definite link exists between global warming and the trio of hurricanes that caused so much destruction and loss of life in the Caribbean and southern US this year, they are a portent of things to come. Even the most skeptical governments now recognize, albeit reluctantly, that global climate change is real, and that it is no longer a question of if, but of when, and how much. Large, wealthy countries have already begun to plan for these contingencies. They have the luxury of being able to build at higher elevations, of moving populations away from high-risk areas, and of diverting huge sums of money and manpower to disaster relief and the rebuilding of ravaged areas. Small island nations are generally not so fortunate. Many are low-lying or have uninhabitable interiors, so that the people, infrastructure, and agriculture are concentrated in coastal zones. This, combined with the tendency of small islands to be economically and ecologically fragile, makes them particularly vulnerable to the effects of global climate change. In January 2005, small island nations will join with donor and other countries at a meeting in Mauritius, to discuss the many challenges they face. A key item on the agenda will be climate change. An alliance of 43 small island developing States (SIDS), created prior to the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio, persuaded the United Nations to call a Global Conference on the Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States, in Barbados in 1994. Now, 10 years later, an international meeting will review the implementation of the Barbados Program of action. There will undoubtedly be calls for developed nations to renew their pledges of financial assistance since, according to a recent report by UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, foreign aid represented only 1% of small islands' gross national income in 2002, compared to 2.6% in 1990. But help is also needed in advance planning and coastal management, as well as advice on the cheapest, most effective methods for preventing coastal erosion – not the large-scale, large-investment infrastructure projects that a developed country would use, but simple, affordable measures such as maintaining sufficient space between houses and the shoreline, and preserving wetlands, mangroves, and other natural buffers against storms. The international community should provide the financial and technical resources to help these at-risk nations develop and implement the response strategies they will need to protect themselves as much as possible from the impacts of climate change. At the opening General Assembly, held in New York in September, the representatives of the small island nations called on the developed world to go a big step further – to reduce the levels of greenhouse gases, particularly CO2, that are the root cause of global warming. By the time the world's biggest polluting nations have finished arguing about carbon credits, deadlines, and percentage reduction levels, the small island nations fear it will be too late. Russia's ratification of the Kyoto Treaty, announced this September, is predicted to re-energize international climate negotiations. Klaus Toepfer, Executive Director of the UN Environment Programme, called on “other nations, some of whom, like Russia, may have been…reluctant to ratify [the Treaty], to now join us in this truly global endeavor”. At the time of writing, the US has not yet gone to the polls for the 2004 Presidential elections. Yet, whatever the outcome, as Rep. Tom Udall pointed out in this column last month, environmental issues should be tackled in a bipartisan spirit. Although some cities and states across the country are introducing measures to reduce CO2 emissions, the US is still one of the world's top CO2-producing countries. It is therefore at the Federal level that action is required, with the US returning to the negotiating table, for the sake of its own citizens as well as those of other nations. As Mr Fradique Bandeira De Melo De Menezes, President of Sao Tome and Principe, so eloquently told the UN General Assembly, “Is my small country to end up nothing but a tiny volcanic peak sticking up above the waves, with the last of our people clinging to the land left unclaimed by the rising sea? The Kyoto Protocol must be implemented by all, for the benefit of all.” Dr Sue Silver, Editor-in-Chief

North Africa is considered a climate change hot spot. Existing studies either focus on the physical aspects of climate change or discuss the social ones. The present article aims to address this divide by assessing and comparing the climate change vulnerability of Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia and linking it to its social implications. The vulnerability assessment focuses on climate change exposure, water resources, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The results suggest that all countries are exposed to strong temperature increases and a high drought risk under climate change. Algeria is most vulnerable to climate change, mainly due to the country’s high sensitivity. Across North Africa, the combination of climate change and strong population growth is very likely to further aggravate the already scarce water situation. The so-called Arab Spring has shown that social unrest is partly caused by unmet basic needs of the population for food and water. Thus, climate change may become an indirect driver of social instability in North Africa. To mitigate the impact of climate change, it is important to reduce economic and livelihood dependence on rain-fed agriculture, strengthen sustainable land use practices, and increase the adaptive capacity. Further, increased regional cooperation and sub-national vulnerability assessments are needed.

Key words: Climate change, Adaptation, Crop modelling, Uncertainty, Maize (Zea mays), Central Rift Valley. Smallholder farmers in Ethiopia have been facing severe climate related hazards, in particular highly variable rainfall and severe droughts that negativelyaffect their livelihoods.Anticipated climate change is expected to aggravate some of the existing challenges and impose new risks beyond the range of current experiences. This study aimed at understanding current climate variability and future climate change and associated impacts, and providing insights on current climate risk management strategies and future adaptation options for adapting agriculture, in particular maize production.The study was conducted in the Central Rift Valley, which represents major cereal-based farming systems of the semi-arid environments of Ethiopia. A second case study area, Kobo Valley was also used for additional analysis in part of the study. Empirical statistical analyses, field survey methods, and a systems analytical approach, using field experimental data in combination with crop-climate simulation modelling were used to achieve the objectives of the study.Crop growth simulation modelling was carried out using two well-accepted crop models, which is an innovative feature of the methodology used in this thesis. The analysis revealed that rainfall exhibited high inter-annual variability (coefficient of variation 15-40%) during the period 1977-2007 in the CRV. The mean annual temperature significantly increased with 0.12 to 0.54 oC per decade during 1977-2007. Projections for future climate suggested that annual rainfall will change by -40 to +10% and the annual temperature is expected to increase in the range of 1.4 to 4.1 oC by 2080s. Simulated water-limited yields are characterized by high inter-annual variability (coefficient of variation 36%) and about 60% of this variability is explained by the variation in growing season rainfall. Actual yields of maize in the CRV are only 28-30% of the simulated water-limited yield. Analysis of climate change scenarios showed that maize yield will decrease on average by 20% in the 2050s relative to a baseline climate due to an increase in temperature and a decrease in growing season rainfall. The negative impact of climate change is very likely, however, the extent of the negative impact has some uncertainties ranging from -2 to -29% depending on crop model and climate change scenario. From the selection of models used, it was concluded that General Circulation Models to assess future climate are the most important source of uncertainty in this study. In response to perceived impacts, farm households are implementing various coping and adaptation strategies. The most important current adaptive strategies include crop selection, adjusting planting time, in situ moisture conservation and income diversification. Lack of affordable technologies, high costs for agricultural inputs, lack of reliable information on weather forecasts, and insecure land tenure systems were identified as limiting factors of farmers’ adaptive capacity. The crop model-based evaluation of future adaptation options indicates that increasing nitrogen fertilization, use of irrigation and changes in planting dates can compensate for some of the negative impacts of climate change on maize production. Developing more heat tolerant and high yielding new cultivars is critical to sustain crop production under future climate change. It was clear from the study that enabling strategies targeted at agricultural inputs, credit supply, market access and strengthening of local knowledge and information services need to become an integral part of government policies to assist farmers in adapting to the impacts of current climate variability and future climate change.

Coastal communities’ adaptive capacity to climate change: Pantanos de Centla Biosphere Reserve, Mexico

An ongoing concern with many Canada’s governments
 is avoiding climate change related policy failure,
 including that associated with climate change. In response,
 there has been a spate of government-led climate change
 vulnerability and risk assessments, studies, and strategies.
 With a growing attention on developing the ‘right’ policies
 and program to address climate change needs to be examined
 as an important factor in ‘adaptive capacity’. As governments
 turn their attention from broad strategizing to
 policy-making, we argue that a consideration of the often
 overlooked micro-level and seemingly routine government
 based capacity—especially the advice needed to formulate
 and implement policy changes—is required. A high level of
 policy capacity is an important factor in avoiding policy
 failures. The questionnaire was delivered through a webbased
 survey of 1469 Canadian provincial and territorial
 government policy analysts working in nine provinces and
 three territorial jurisdictions in the climate change, environmental,
 financial, forestry, natural resource, infrastructure,
 transportation, and water sectors. A comparison of
 mean scores across key indicators of policy work was conducted.
 A number of policy implications were raised. First,
 those in financial sector do very little climate change policy
 work. Second, the fracturing of roles in those departments
 responsible for forestry reflects the complexity of the climate
 change issue and a developed division of labour. Those who
 identified with forestry sector, under performed despite their
 concern about climate change, in terms of key policy tasks,
 the level of complexity that the issues were addressed and a
 low level engagement with stakeholders with those outside
 of government. Policy capacity was also undermined with a
 view that departments were committed vis a vis their mission
 statements but that this commitment was not reflected
 in their daily operations.

Southern Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate variability and change because of multiple existing climatic stresses and low adaptive capacity. It is now indisputable that climate change will have a grave effect on livestock production in Southern Africa, coming as an additional factor affecting livestock production that is already highly dynamic and facing a host of challenges. Climatic change is threatening the sustainability of livestock production systems by reinforcing existing stressors such as heat stress, droughts, and flooding events which have lead to reductions in livestock productivity. This review attempt to explore the likely impacts of climate change on livestock production systems, and discuss influence of climate change on water and feeds, livestock genetics and breeding, and animal health. The expected responses to climate induced environmental stressors on livestock production are also highlighted. This is on the understanding that the impact of climate change on livestock production through natural disasters and environmental challenges are likely to affect Southern Africa indiscriminately. Livestock production systems need to adjust through adoption of possible strategies to reduce vulnerability to climate change which affects livestock production in various direct and indirect ways. In order to be able to adequately address livestock production challenges in the context of climate, there is need for Southern African to carry out thorough climatic vulnerability and adaptation assessments, before responses are suggested. Lack of comprehensive training of experts in carrying out vulnerability and adaptation assessments on livestock production, which is crucial in order to develop climate change adaptation measures on livestock production has been a major concern. The vulnerability to climate change impact is a function of several biophysical and socioeconomic factors which need to be taken into account.

In the context of increasing climate change, fishery-based livelihoods as major means of income and well-beings for millions of population in coastal communities around the world are most affected. Yet, available information how fishery-based livelihood system at local level are vulnerable to climate change, especially in developing countries is very limited. Using an indicator-based vulnerability assessment framework, this study examined the household-level vulnerability of fishery-based livelihoods in two coastal communities in Central Vietnam. The results showed that the nature and degree of livelihood vulnerability to climate change among fishing households depend on their own characteristics and conditions as well as accessibility to livelihood diversification opportunities. Developing appropriate adaptation policies and coastal management measures to reduce livelihood vulnerability should enhance positive indicators of household’s adaptive capacity and create a better environment for alternative livelihood opportunities.

Disasters in the form of typhoon and storm surge-induced flooding can be very destructive for coastal communities. This study presents a quantitative framework for measuring the vulnerability of a coastal community in the City of Manila. The framework is adapted from the Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment (VCA) method presented by Prabhakar (2015), drawing on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) concept of vulnerability. The study incorporates socio-economic factors and storm surge characteristics to ascertain the leading factors of vulnerability from a household perspective. Criteria were selected from different local and international methods used to assess climate change induced vulnerability of communities. Study findings draw on survey, key informant interview, estimation of spatial attributes and applicable published census data. The assessment results show that BASECO is highly vulnerable to storm surge impacts with an overall vulnerability score of 0.74 out of 1.00. While exposure is moderate with an index of 0.51 due to coastal flooding and extent of population exposed, sensitivity is high with 0.61 and adaptive capacity with 0.38 index value. This study suggests the updating of city’s land use plan and zoning policy based on hazard and risk information to guide medium term measures, such as relocation or settlement upgrading programs. JBIP, Vol. 11, 2018 (Printed in June 2020), pp. 107-123