Validating the Contribution-Weighted Model: Robustness and Cost-Benefit Analyses

Reports an error in "Bridging the gap between subjective probability and probability judgments: The quantum sequential sampler" by Jiaqi Huang, Jerome R. Busemeyer, Zo Ebelt and Emmanuel M. Pothos (Psychological Review, 2025[Jul], Vol 132[4], 916-955; see record 2025-25219-001). The authors noticed a typo in Equation 17. In the matrix shown, the entry in the fourth row should be "(0 0 β+ … . .)" instead of "(0 β+ … . .)". A zero is missing from the fourth row. The online version of this article has been corrected. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2025-25219-001.) One of the most important challenges in decision theory has been how to reconcile the normative expectations from Bayesian theory with the apparent fallacies that are common in probabilistic reasoning. Recently, Bayesian models have been driven by the insight that apparent fallacies are due to sampling errors or biases in estimating (Bayesian) probabilities. An alternative way to explain apparent fallacies is by invoking different probability rules, specifically the probability rules from quantum theory. Arguably, quantum cognitive models offer a more unified explanation for a large body of findings, problematic from a baseline classical perspective. This work addresses two major corresponding theoretical challenges: first, a framework is needed which incorporates both Bayesian and quantum influences, recognizing the fact that there is evidence for both in human behavior. Second, there is empirical evidence which goes beyond any current Bayesian and quantum model. We develop a model for probabilistic reasoning, seamlessly integrating both Bayesian and quantum models of reasoning and augmented by a sequential sampling process, which maps subjective probabilistic estimates to observable responses. Our model, called the Quantum Sequential Sampler, is compared to the currently leading Bayesian model, the Bayesian Sampler (J. Zhu et al., 2020) using a new experiment, producing one of the largest data sets in probabilistic reasoning to this day. The Quantum Sequential Sampler embodies several new components, which we argue offer a more theoretically accurate approach to probabilistic reasoning. Moreover, our empirical tests revealed a new, surprising systematic overestimation of probabilities. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2026 APA, all rights reserved).

Biotic response to Early Cretaceous climate warming in Hebei, northern China: Implications for the phased development of the Jehol Biota

Part 1: Problem Solving. P. Johnson-Laird, The Shape of Problems. J. Evans, Insight and Self-insight in Reasoning and Decision Making. Part 2: Deductive Reasoning. W. Schaeken, J. Baptiste van der Henst, It's Good to be Wrong: An Analysis of Mistakes in Relational Reasoning. J.A. Garcia-Madruga, F. Gutierrez, N. Carriedo, J.M. Luzon, J.O. Vila, Working Memory and Propositional Reasoning: Searching for New Working Memory Tests. R. Byrne, C. Walsh, Resolving Contradictions. Part 3: Pragmatics, Hypotheses, and Probabilities. J.P. Caverni, S. Rossi, J-L. Peris, How to Defocus in Hypothesis Testing: Manipulating the Initial Triple in the 2-4-6 Problem. G. Politzer, L. Macchi, The Representation of the Task: The Case of the Lawyer-Engineer Problem in Probability Judgement. Part 4: Probabilistic Judgement. D. Over, Naive Probability and Its Model Theory. V. Girotto, M. Gonzalez, Probabilistic Reasoning and Combinatorial Analysis. Part 5: Social and Emotional Aspects of Decision Making. D. Green, Affect and Argument. F. Butera, C. Buchs, Reasoning Together: From Focusing to Decentering. E. Shafir, E. Carlisle, Heuristics and biases in attitudes towards herbal medicines.

During the last few decades, an important debate has taken place in cognitive psychology concerning the rationality of human reasoning. One field in which this debate has been vigorous is that of inductive inference and probabilistic reasoning or, in more general terms, situations in which people make predictions about uncertain events (Cohen, 1981; Gigerenzer and Murray, 1987; Bell et al., 1988; Anderson, 1991; Gigerenzer, 1996; Kahneman and Tversky, 1996). This research has produced mixed results, ranging from some showing that human predictive behaviour under uncertain conditions is basically rational to others demonstrating violations of various principles of rationality.

The gambler’s fallacy is typically defined as the false belief that a random event is less likely to occur if it has occurred recently. Although forms of this fallacy have been documented numerous times, past work either has not actually measured probabilistic predictions but rather point predictions or used sequences that were not independent. To address these problems, we conducted a series of high-powered, preregistered studies in which we asked 750 adult Amazon Mechanical Turk workers from the United States to report probabilistic predictions for truly independent sequences. In contrast to point predictions, which generated a significant gambler’s fallacy, probabilistic predictions were not found to lead to a gambler’s fallacy. Moreover, the point predictions could not be reconstructed by sampling from the probability judgments. This suggests that the gambler’s fallacy originates at the decision stage rather than in probabilistic reasoning, as posited by several leading theories. New theories of the gambler’s fallacy may be needed to explain these findings.

Authors like Keynes, H. Jeffreys and Carnap advocated using a concept of "logical probability". Logical probability had the following properties: (a) it was representable as a function from potential states of full belief (or "evidence") to states of subjective or credal probability judgment. (b) Such functions were alleged to be constrained by principles of probability logic. (c) All rational agents were supposed to be obliged to adopt the standard function that probability logic prescribed. In this essay, it is argued that these three requirements could be satisfied only if probability logic prescribed that credal probability should be numerically determinate. Keynes denied that it should numerically determinate and Carnap abandoned the idea that probability logic could supply a determinate function from states of full belief to numerically determinate credal states that all rational agents ought to adopt. The paper explains that once this is conceded, logical probability ought to be interpreted rather differently than it is customarily is.

SAT0259 High plasma concentration of mycophenolate acid in early phase of induction therapy predicts good renal outcome in lupus nephritis class iii or iv

IntroductionSeveral reports indicate lower rates of emergency admissions in the cardiovascular sector and reduced admissions of patients with chronic diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of this study was therefore to evaluate numbers of admissions in incident and prevalent atrial fibrillation and flutter (AF) and to analyze care pathways in comparison to 2019.MethodsA retrospective analysis of claims data of 74 German Helios hospitals was performed to identify consecutive patients hospitalized with a main discharge diagnosis of AF. A study period including the start of the German national protection phase (13th March 2020 to 16th July 2020) was compared to a previous year control cohort (15th March 2019 to 18th July 2019), with further sub-division into early and late phase. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) were calculated. Numbers of admission per day (A/day) for incident and prevalent AF and care pathways including readmissions, numbers of transesophageal echocardiogram (TEE), electrical cardioversion (CV) and catheter ablation (CA) were analyzed.ResultsDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a significant decrease of total AF admissions both in the early (44.4 vs. 77.5 A/day, IRR 0.57 [95% CI 0.54–0.61], p < 0.01) and late phase (59.1 vs. 63.5 A/day, IRR 0.93 [95% CI 0.90–0.96], p < 0.01), length of stay was significantly shorter (3.3 ± 3.1 nigths vs. 3.5 ± 3.6 nigths, p < 0.01), admissions were more frequently in high volume centers (77.0% vs. 75.4%, p = 0.02) and frequency of readmissions was reduced (21.7% vs. 23.6%, p < 0.01) compared to the previous year.Incident AF admission rates were significantly lower both in the early (21.9 admission per day vs. 41.1 A/day, IRR 0.53 [95% CI 0.48 − 0.58]) and late phase (35.5 vs. 39.3 A/day, IRR 0.90 [95% CI 0.86 − 0.95]), whereas prevalent admissions were only lower in the early phase (22.5 vs 36.4 A/day IRR 0.62 [95% CI 0.56 − 0.68]), but not in the late phase (23.6 vs. 24.2 A/day IRR 0.97 [95% CI 0.92 − 1.03]).Analysis of care pathways showed reduced numbers of TEE during the early phase (34.7% vs. 41.4%, OR 0.74 [95% CI 0.64 − 0.86], p < 0.01), but not during the late phase (39.9% vs. 40.2%, OR 0.96 [95% CI 0.88 − 1.03], p = 0.26). Numbers of CV were comparable during early (40.6% vs. 39.7%, OR 1.08 [95% CI 0.94 − 1.25], p = 0.27) and late phase (38.6% vs. 37.5%, OR 1.06 [95% CI 0.98 − 1.14], p = 0.17), compared to the previous year, respectively. Numbers of CA were comparable during the early phase (21.6% vs. 21.1%, OR 0.98 [95% CI 0.82 − 1.17], p = 0.82) with a distinct increase during the late phase (22.9% vs. 21.5%, OR 1.05 [95% CI 0.96–1.16], p = 0.28).ConclusionDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, AF admission rates declined significantly, with a more pronounced reduction in incident than in prevalent AF. Overall AF care was maintained during early and late pandemic phase with only minor changes, namely less frequent use of TEE. Confirmation of these findings in other study populations as well as identification of underlying causes are required to ensure optimal therapy in patients with AF during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Studies of therapist adherence in relation to treatment outcome have produced mixed results. The aim of the present study was to investigate change in therapist adherence to cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) for bulimia nervosa over time, and to investigate the relationship between adherence and client outcome in early, middle, and late phases of treatment. Thirty-six clients received the focused form of "enhanced" CBT (CBT-E) for bulimia nervosa. Trained observers rated audiotapes of 92 full-length therapy sessions from early (Session 3), middle (Session 11), and late phases (Session 20) of treatment using the Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy Treatment Protocol Adherence Scale. Change in adherence across the 3 treatment phases was examined using multilevel analysis. The relationship between early, middle, and late adherence levels and end-of-treatment binging frequency was examined using multilevel Poisson regression analysis. Adherence decreased significantly over the course of treatment. Higher levels of therapist adherence in early and middle phases of treatment were associated with reduced binging frequency, whereas higher levels of adherence measured late in treatment was not. Results indicate that therapists' adherence to the CBT-E treatment protocol decreases over time and that high levels of protocol adherence in early and middle phases of treatment are more important for positive client outcomes than high levels of adherence in the end of treatment. (PsycINFO Database Record

We compared the perinatal outcomes of vaginal delivery with epidural analgesia initiated at the early versus late phase in a Japanese population. Women enrolled in this retrospective cohort study received intrapartum analgesia via combined spinal epidural analgesia after labor onset between May 2010 and August 2015. We compared the perinatal outcomes between two different timings of epidural analgesia: at the early phase (≤3 cm cervical dilatation) and the late phase (≥4 cm) or at the new definition-based early phase (≤5 cm) and late phase (≥6 cm). One hundred twenty-eight singleton pregnant women were eligible. In nulliparous women, there was no marked difference in perinatal outcomes between the early and late phase except for in the first-stage labor period (13.7 h vs 10.1 h, P = 0.016). In multiparous women, there was no marked difference in perinatal outcomes between the early and late phase except for a higher proportion of Apgar score ≤7 at 1 min in the early phase (20.0% vs 0.0%, P = 0.033). In nulliparous women, the first-stage labor period in the new early phase was significantly longer than in the new late phase (13.3 h vs 6.9 h, P = 0.035). Other variables for nulliparous women and all for multiparous women were not different between the new early and late phases. Most perinatal outcomes between the early and late phases of initiated epidural analgesia were not markedly different in our Japanese population, even when using a new definition of labor phase.

In this chapter, I present a synchronic analysis of the process of culture change in seven provinces of the North Central European Plain, 600–900s CE. The data on technological advancement, changes in settlement pattern, and social stratification are discussed in one hundred years intervals in each province. Technological changes relate to the appearance of new pottery types and the construction of houses and fortifications. Changes in settlement pattern, especially the appearance of forts and the emergence of structured settlement arrangements indicate an increase in the complexity of territorial administration through centralization of power and decision making. The appearance of status items and weaponry in relation to technological advancements and diversity of settlements suggests structural modifications in social organization. The rise of social complexity in the region comprised four phases of different duration and intensity of change: the Early Middle Ages phase 1 characterized by a polycentric governance scheme and base-tier settlement pattern; the Early Middle Ages phase 2 with localized manorial political arrangements and one-tier settlement pattern above the base-tier; the Early Middle Ages phase 3, region-wide multi-agent political organization that included a network of unified forts, which reinforced the one-tier settlement pattern; and the Early Middle Ages phase 4, pre-state organization with two-tier settlement pattern above the base-tier.

Clinicopathological characterization of cardiac free wall rupture in patients with acute myocardial infarction: difference between early and late phase rupture

The neisserial opacity (Opa) proteins are phase-variable, antigenically distinct outer membrane proteins that mediate adherence to and invasion of human cells. We previously reported that Neisseria gonorrhoeae Opa protein expression appeared to be selected for or induced during experimental murine genital tract infection. Here we further defined the kinetics of recovery of Opa variants from the lower genital tracts of female mice and investigated the basis for this initial observation. We found that the recovery of different Opa phenotypes from mice appears cyclical. Three phases of infection were defined. Following intravaginal inoculation with primarily Opa- gonococci, the majority of isolates recovered were Opa+ (early phase). A subsequent decline in the percentage of Opa+ isolates occurred in a majority of mice (middle phase) and was followed by a reemergence of Opa+ variants in mice that were infected for longer than 8 days (late phase). We showed the early phase was due to selection for preexisting Opa+ variants in the inoculum by constructing a chloramphenicol-resistant (Cm(r)) strain and following Cm(r) Opa+ populations mixed with a higher percentage of Opa- variants of the wild-type (Cm(s)) strain. Reciprocal experiments (Opa- Cm(r) gonococci spiked with Opa+ Cm(s) bacteria) were consistent with selection of Opa+ variants. Based on the absence in mice of human carcinoembryonic antigen cell adhesion molecules, the major class of Opa protein adherence receptors, we conclude the observed selection for Opa+ variants early in infection is not likely due to a specific adherence advantage and may be due to Opa-mediated evasion of innate defenses.

β‐arrestins play key roles in both terminating G protein signaling and activating G protein‐independent signaling across many G protein coupled receptors (GPCRs); however, the roles of β‐arrestins in dopamine D3 receptor (D3R)‐mediated ERK phosphorylation/signaling are poorly characterized. Our previous studies showed that novel compounds SK609 and its analog SK608 are selective D3R agonists and display Gi/o biased signaling without significant recruitment of β‐arrestin2 (βarr2) compared with dopamine which can potently activate G proteins and recruit β‐arrestins. We hypothesize that βarr2 plays multiple roles in initiating and sustaining D3R‐mediated ERK1/2 phosphorylation by G protein‐biased and unbiased D3R agonists. We tested this hypothesis using neuron‐like SH‐SY5Y cells stably expressing D3R (SH‐SY5Y‐D3R cells) with βarr2 knockdown (βarr2KD) in vitro. Our results show: SK609 and SK608 or pramipexole (PRX) time‐dependently elicited both the early and late phases of mono phosphorylation of ERK1/2; SK608 or SK609 only elicited the early phase of dual phosphorylation, whereas PRX induced both the early and late phases and sustained for 1‐4 h; βarr2KD partially reduced mono ERK1/2 phosphorylation by PRX but not SK608 or SK609; βarr2KD significantly enhanced both the early and late phases of dual ERK1/2 phosphorylation by SK608 or SK609 whereas it partially reduced the early phase by PRX and completely abolished the late phase; Gi/o inhibitor PTX abolished PRX‐ or SK608 and SK609‐induced mono ERK1/2 phosphorylation and SK608‐ and SK609‐induced the early phase of dual ERK1/2 phosphorylation, whereas the early phase of dual phosphorylation by PRX was abolished but the late phase was not affected; Gbg inhibitor Galllein had no effect on PRX‐ induced dual phosphorylation of ERK1/2 but inhibited SK609‐ or SK608‐indued dual phosphorylation; PKC inhibitor Go6983 greatly reduced or completely abolished PRX‐ or SK608‐ and SK609‐induced the mono phosphorylation, and blocked SK608‐ or SK609‐induced the dual phosphorylation in SH‐SY5Y‐D3R cells. In contrast, Go6983 abolished PRX‐induced late phase of dual phosphorylation, it only partially reduced PRX‐induced early phase; PTX plus Go6983 completely abolished PRX‐ or SK608‐ and SK609‐induced mono or dual ERK1/2 phosphorylation in SH‐SY5Y‐D3R/βarr2KD cells. In summary, βarr2 not only participates in inhibiting G protein‐biased D3R agonist‐induced early and late phases of dual ERK1/2 phosphorylation and activating unbiased D3R agonists‐induced the early and late phases of the dual phosphorylation, but also is required for Gi/o‐ or PKCs‐dependent the early phase of the mono and dual ERK1/2 phosphorylation. These findings support multiple roles in which βarr2 acts as both signal terminator for G protein biased agonist‐induced ERK1/2 signaling and signal transducer for unbiased D3R agonist‐induced signaling interactions among βarr2 and Gi/o and PKCs which collaboratively regulate ERK1/2 signaling.

To analyze superparamagnetic iron oxide (SPIO)-mediated hepatic signal intensity change in cirrhotic and noncirrhotic liver and to investigate the relationship between pulse sequence effects in SPIO-enhanced magnetic resonance (MR) imaging for hepatic cirrhosis. Twelve patients with and 12 patients without cirrhosis underwent T2-weighted fast spin-echo, T2*-weighted gradient-echo (GRE), and T1-weighted GRE MR imaging before and twice (early and late phase) after SPIO administration. To assess the effect of SPIO, postcontrast relative signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) changes were statistically analyzed with repeated measurements analysis of variance for each pulse sequence. No interaction was shown between groups and data time points for any pulse sequence. There was no significant difference in mean hepatic relative SNR change on T2-weighted fast spin-echo images between the cirrhotic group and noncirrhotic group (-38.6% and -40.7%, early phase; -42.2% and -49.6%, late phase, respectively). For GRE images, statistically significant differences in mean hepatic relative SNR change were found between the cirrhotic group and noncirrhotic group (-14.2% and -44.5%, early phase; -28.5% and -56.4%, late phase on T2*-weighted GRE images (P <.001); 31.8% and 12.9%, early phase; 23.8% and 2.2%, late phase on T1-weighted GRE images (P <.05), respectively. Decreased overall phagocytic activity in cirrhotic liver is more likely due to Kupffer cell dysfunction than to Kupffer cell depletion, since magnetic susceptibility effects on T2*-weighted GRE images depend on intracellular SPIO cluster size.