What Drives ETF Flows?

Evgeny Borisovich Tarasov - National Research University "Higher School of Economics". 
 E-mail: etarasov@hse.ru
 Prior to March of 2016, when the first exchange traded fund (ETF) on RTS was introduced, Russian investors’ only option for investing in the domestic index was through a mutual fund. By contrast, the majority world stock exchanges have been giving their clients the option to invest in their leading domestic indexes not only via index mutual funds but also via exchange traded funds (ETF) since decades. Their absence and therefore the lake of familiarity with these funds might be one of the several reasons Russian investors have been willing to pay a premium for ETF investments through intermediaries relative to what they would pay investing directly. Large number of investors buy western ETF via mutual funds. The premiums Russian mutual funds charge for investing in ETFs translate on up to a 36% premium over a 10-year horizon, compared to buying the same ETF directly. This paper introduces to a broader Russian speaking community ETFs, one of the most important financial innovations of the last 20 years, and provides a survey of the research done in this field. This paper reviews the literature on ETFs and provides a brief history of ETFs and these funds’ investment mechanism. In conclusion, some ideas for further research are suggested.The existing paper are divvied in three groups that unite six topics:The first group of literature is devoted to traditional ETF. There are two topics:1. Is the ETF substitute for index mutual funds? If yes, to which level? If it is substitute, why it did not still the index funds?2. Which influence has the introduction of an ETF on the active that it tracks. This topic covers also liquidity, hedge and arbitrage. Second group of papers emerging recently unites the following topics:3. How effective are the ETF tracking the foreign indexes?4. ETF development besides USA. 5. ETF that track not the share indexes. New generation ETF: synthetic, leveraged, actively managed and smart-beta.Third group of papers devoted to the following topic:6. ETF use for optimal portfolio construction.

The article is devoted to the comparative analysis to forecast models of exchange-traded investment funds dynamics. The exchange traded investment fund was chosen for the study as a modern investment instrument, which managed to combine the best features of stocks and mutual investment funds. However, despite the advantages of this financial instrument, the main task of the investor is the ability to predict its dynamics. To date, there are many forecast models, but the ability to create a reliable and accurate forecast remains extremely important.Two exchange traded funds were selected for forecasting: SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST (the stock ticker is SPY) and VanEck Vectors Gold Miners (the stock ticker is GDX). Based on daily prices for the period from January 2016 to January 2020, forecast models of two types were built: linear and nonlinear. Namely, linear models of moving average and exponential smoothing (Holt model) were selected. The neural network model was chosen as a nonlinear model. It turned out that the quality assessment of all models is quite high. However, the constructed forecasts showed that despite the high quality of the obtained statistical models of moving average and exponential smoothing, forecasting with their help is possible only for the forecast horizon, which is one trading day. The neural network model, conversely, shows a worse forecast for the first forecast value, but captures the dynamics and direction of price changes in both the exchange-traded investment fund SPY and GDX. That is, with the help of training, the neural network is able to establish hidden nonlinear patterns of price dynamics. But the horizon of the neural network forecast is also limited: in research it is established that the forecast on the basis of a neural network model it is expedient to build no more than for one exchange week.

PurposeThough exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are similar to mutual funds, we identify several reasons how they are different based on their structure and trading characteristics. Therefore, we argue that the determinants of fund closure decisions for ETFs will not be the same as the mutual funds. We systematically explore those factors.Design/methodology/approachWe use Cox Proportional Hazard model, which is considered a superior method, over the logistic regression models. All previous studies are based on logistic regressions.FindingsWe investigate the closure rate of ETFs over the 1995–2018 sample period. We find that the first three years are the most critical period for the survival of ETFs. Our full sample results show that early fund performance, the investment style of the fund, the expense ratio and fund family size are the most relevant factors influencing the likelihood of closure. When we consider equity-only funds, we find that key factors that influence fund closure are early fund performance, the expense ratio, failure to grow the fund's assets relatively quickly and the equity investment category of the fund.Research limitations/implicationsTracking error could be a significant factor. However, we have several missing values in the data. Therefore, we are forced to drop that variable. However, we use the SD of daily returns in lieu of that. Similarly, we were constrained by the availability of data for the equity style box scores.Practical implicationsOur study suggests that individual investors will be better off by investing in ETFs that are at least three-year to four-year old. If individuals want to invest in ETFs from the date of inception, the probability of survival is higher for an ETF within a larger fund family.Social implicationsHopefully, our research will attract the attention of CFPB and provide a warning to individual investors when they choose to invest in ETFs. More and more ETFs are getting included in retirement savings. So, abrupt ETF closures are likely to have large social implications for the future.Originality/valueWe are the first to use Cox Proportional Hazard model. We base our arguments from latest research on ETFs that the one earlier paper on ETF closure has missed. So, we examine the issue in a more systematic way.

A Comparison of Index Funds and ETFs

Style-level Return Chasing and Noise Trader Demand

Exchange Traded Funds: A New Investment Option for Taxable Investors

Exchange-traded Funds (ETFs) have been gaining increasing popularity in the investment community, as evidenced by their high growth both in the number of ETFs created and their net assets since 2000. As ETFs are in nature similar to index mutual funds, in this article we examine whether this growing demand for ETFs can be explained through their outperformance as compared with index mutual funds. We consider the population of all ETFs with inception dates before 2002 and then for each ETF found all the passive index mutual funds that had the same investment style as the selected ETF and had an inception date before 2002. This led to a sample of 230 paired matches for all the styles. Within each investment style we matched every ETF with all the passive index funds in that investment style and compared the performances of the matched pairs in terms of Sharpe Ratios and risk-adjusted buy and hold total returns for the period 2002–2010. We then applied the Wilcoxon signed rank test to examine whether ETFs had better performances than index mutual funds during the sample period. We conducted the test both within each style and for all the styles put together. In terms of Sharpe Ratio, out of the 12 styles included in the sample, for 5 styles the conclusion was that ETFs outperformed index funds, for 3 of the styles US Broad market, US large cap growth and US Reits index funds outperformed ETFs, and for 4 styles there was statistically no significant difference between ETFs and index fund performances. Out of the 230 paired matches of all the styles, ETFs outperformed index mutual funds 134 times in terms of Sharpe Ratio; however, the test of the hypothesis showed no statistically significant difference between ETFs and index fund performances in terms of Sharpe Ratio. The break-down of the results for risk-adjusted buy and hold total returns was slightly different from those for the Sharpe Ratio, though the overall conclusion was the same. For five of the styles, index funds outperformed ETFs, for three styles ETFs outperformed index funds, and for four styles there was statistically no significant difference between the performances of the two. Out of the 230 paired matches of all the styles put together, ETFs outperformed index mutual funds 125 times in terms of risk-adjusted buy and hold total return; however, the test of hypothesis showed no statistically significant difference between ETFs and index fund performances in terms of risk-adjusted buy and hold total return. These findings indicate that there is statistically no significant difference between ETFs and passive index mutual fund performances at the fund level, and that investors’ choice between the two is related to product characteristics and tax advantages.

What Happens After a Fund Family Begins to Offer ETFs?

ETFs, Illiquid Assets, and Fire Sales

All are Not Created Equal: An Exploration of ETF Asset Growth

We explore the implications of US-based, internationally-focused equity mutual funds holding exchange traded funds (ETFs). We observe significant differences in how ETFs are used by international mutual funds compared to their domestic equity counterparts. Internationally-focused mutual funds use ETFs to alter the return-based and country risk exposures of the mutual fund. In addition to altering the risk of the fund, we find increases in ETF-use coincide with a change in performance, an investment in a greater number of countries, and a reduction the number of direct equity holdings.

Since the introduction of the first exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the form of Standard & Poor’s Depository Receipts (SPDRs) in 1993, ETFs have become popular investment vehicles in the financial markets. At the end of October 2008, assets under management totaled $460 billion, a reduction of $300 billion since the end of March 2008 in response to the credit crisis. ETFs offer multiple advantages to investors, including easy diversification in the equity, fixed income, and even commodities markets, low cost, tax efficiency, continuous pricing, and low premiums/discounts from the net asset value (NAV) of the underlying assets. However, it is possible for the ETF to exhibit premiums or discounts from the net asset value of the underlying assets due to their structure and dividend treatment. Unlike traditional mutual funds, ETFs can be sold short and purchased on margin. Although the ETF market has shrunk in response to the credit crisis, new innovations in the ETF include active management and retirement ETF products.

Purpose The purpose of this study is to identify the factors that impact the exchange-traded funds net fund flow changes on a daily basis. Design/methodology/approach A total of 1,212 different exchange-traded funds with a proprietary daily net fund flow data and logistic regressions were studied because the majority of the 1,212 exchange-traded funds have mostly zero daily net fund flow changes. Findings It was documented that in the period December 22, 2005 to July 28, 2010 autocorrelation at the daily frequency is not universally present for the 1,212 exchange-traded funds that we study, despite the fact that this is the case in the monthly data documented in prior studies. No support was found for the feedback trading hypothesis but some support was found for the contrarian investor hypothesis on daily basis, even though the opposite is ascertained for both in the prior literature monthly data. Also, it cannot be concluded that tracking error prompts net fund flow changes and thus arbitrage activity. Originality/value The paper contributes to the ongoing analysis of the factors influencing investment companies fund flow changes, which has mostly focused on open-end funds and monthly data so far. Considering the increased scope and relevance of exchange-traded funds in today’s financial markets, this study fills a void in the fund flow changes literature.

An exchange-traded fund (ETF) is a financial asset that tracks a chosen index and trades continuously throughout the day. The price differential between the market price and net asset value (NAV) of the ETF creates risk-free arbitrage opportunities. This article captures the pricing efficiency and price discovery process using autoregressive analysis model and a vector error correction model (VECM). The study concludes that the Indian ETF market displays a lack of price efficiency. Except for two ETFs, the NAV of the ETF has been the lead indicator for ETFs.

Mutual Funds and Exchange-Traded Funds: Building Blocks to Wealth offers a synthesis of the theoretical and empirical literature primarily on mutual funds but also discusses related investment vehicles, especially ETFs. In this edited volume, noted scholars and practitioners write chapters in their areas of expertise. It interweaves the contributions of multiple authors into an authoritative overview of important but selective topics. Readers will gain an in-depth understanding of mutual funds and ETFs from experts from around the world. Based on research-based evidence, this is not intended to be a how to book; instead, it is a scholarly and in-depth approach to important investment subjects. Although the book places greater attention on these different types of investments in the United States, it also examines them in a global context. In today's financial environment, mutual funds and ETFs are dynamic areas that continue to evolve at a rapid pace. Because the flow of materials on the subject is voluminous, this book, by necessity, must be selective because it cannot cover every aspect of this field. However, readers can gain important insights about each investment vehicle including its structure and uses, performance and measurement. Beyond these core topics and issues, the book also examines the latest trends, cutting-edge developments, and real-world situations. Given its broad scope, this practical and comprehensive book should appeal to investors, investment professionals, academics, and others interested in mutual funds and ETFs. In particular, this book should help investors make key asset allocation decisions while capturing the benefits of a highly diversified, well-constructed, lower-cost portfolio of complementary strategies that enhance financial wealth. Available in OSO: Contributors to this volume - Rosa Adamo Anna Agapova Benjamin Aguilar Parvez Ahmed Laura Andreu Dimitris Andriosopoulos Oreste Auleta Tamas Barko Tarik Bazgour Michael Bianco Laurent Bodson Alistair Byrne Han-Sheng Chen Conrad S. Ciccotello Sean Collins Bruce A. Costa Jonathan Fletcher Mary Fletcher Joseph A. Franco Frendy Robert Grohowski John A. Haslem Sarah A. Holden Hunter M. Holzhauer Keith Jakob Eddy Junarsin Enrico Libert Ying-Chou Lin Andrew Marshall Christopher Milliken Matthew R. Morey Ehsan Nikbakht Trevor Oliver Ojwang' George Omondi Keith Pareti Grady Perdue Mark Potter Larry J. Prather Luc Renneboog Jose Luis Sarto Roberto Savona Panagiotis Schizas Sandeep Singh David M. Smith Danielle Sougne Andrew C. Spieler Filippo Stefanini Z. Jay Wang