Wild blueberry yield prediction using a combination of computer simulation and machine learning algorithms

In this paper we use the property of diatoms as bioindicators, to indentify which physical-chemical parameters are contained in the taken sample using machine learning algorithm – CN2. Important physical-chemical parameters such as conductivity, saturated oxygen, pH, organic chemical parameters and metals are important in the process of environmental monitoring. These physical-chemical parameters have influence on the entire lake web food chain, thus disturbing the organism’s patterns and interactions between them, such as diatoms community. These communities have high coefficient of indication on certain process such as eutrophication and presence or absence of certain physical-chemical parameters, which means that they can be used as bio-indicators of water quality. The machine learning algorithm – CN2 can produce rules in a form IF-THEN which is suitable for organizing knowledge from diatoms abundance data. In literature the diatoms have ecological preference organized in the same manner. The experimental setup is build to satisfy not only the algorithm properties, but also the ecological knowledge of the diatoms community. We used several modifications of the algorithm, from which then we compare the compactness and coverage of the induced rule. Nevertheless, for regression problems we compare the correlation coefficient, root mean square error (RMSE) and relative root mean square error (RRMSE) or rule quality to point which experiment proved to be most accuracy and more general. Several of the rules are presented in this paper together with the evaluation performance.

Soil pH is a key factor that controls soil nutrient availability, soil microbial activities, and crop growth and development. However, studies on the soil pH variations of cultivated lands in different horizons at the regional scale remain limited. In this work, 348 soil samples were collected from three soil horizons (A, B, and C) at 120 sites over the hilly region of Chongqing, southwestern China. Six topographic indicators, four climate parameters, and parent material were considered. Classification and regression trees (CARTs) were applied to investigate the relationships between soil pH and the variables in the A, B, and C horizons. Model performances were evaluated by root mean square error (RMSE), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), and coefficient of determination (R2). Results showed that soil pH increased obviously from the A to C horizons. Soil pH was predicted well by the forcing factors with the CART models in all horizons. RMSE, RRMSE, and R2 varied between 0.37 and 0.435, between 5.93 and 7.23%, and between 0.71 and 0.80, respectively. The relative importance of the studied variables to soil pH differed with the horizons. Annual temperature range (ATR), terrain wetness index (TWI), and Melton ruggedness number were critical factors that controlled soil pH variability in the A horizon. Parent material, precipitation of warmest quarter (PWQ), ATR, and TWI were important variables in the B horizon. Parent material, PWQ, ATR, and precipitation were key factors in the C horizon. The results are expected to provide valuable information for designing appropriate measurements for agricultural practices and preventing soil acidification.

Soil water content (SWC) is an important factor restricting crop growth and yield in cropland ecosystems. The observation and simulation of soil moisture contribute greatly to improving water-use efficiency and crop yield. This study was conducted at the Shandong Yucheng Agro-ecosystem National Observation and Research Station in the North China Plain. The study period was across the winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) growth stages from 2017 to 2019. A cosmic-ray neutron probe was used to monitor the continuous daily SWC. Furthermore, the crop leaf area index (LAI), yield, and aboveground biomass of winter wheat were determined. The root zone quality model 2 (RZWQM2) was used to simulate and validate the SWC, crop LAI, yield, and aboveground biomass. The results showed that the simulation errors of SWC were minute across the wheat growth stages and mature stages in 2017–2019. The root mean square error (RMSE) and relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of the SWC simulation at the jointing stage of winter wheat were 0.0296 and 0.1605 in 2017–2018, and 0.0265 and 0.1480 in 2018–2019, respectively. During the rain-affected days, the RMSE (0.0253) and RRMSE (0.0980) for 2017–2018 were significantly lower than those of 2018–2019 (0.0301 and 0.1458, respectively), indicating that rain events decreased the model accuracy in the dry years compared to the wet years. The simulated LAIs were significantly higher than the measured values. The simulated yield value of winter wheat was 5.61% lower and 3.92% higher than the measured yield in 2017–2018 and in 2018–2019, respectively. The simulated value of aboveground biomass was significantly (45.48%) lower than the measured value in 2017–2018. This study showed that, compared with the dry and cold wheat growth period of 2018–2019, the higher precipitation and temperature in 2017–2018 led to a poorer simulation of SWC and crop-growth components. This study indicated that annual abnormal rainfall and temperature had a significant influence on the simulation of SWC and wheat growth, especially under intensive climate-change stress conditions.

In this study, we developed a model for photosynthetic production in double cropping rice by integrating the advantages in current crop models (including the models of canopy structure, canopy light distribution, canopy photosynthesis and dry matter production). The canopy light distribution and dry matter accumulation were preliminarily validated with independent field experiment datasets. The distribution of direct radiation both on a level surface and on the leaf surface within canopy, the canopy daily photosynthate and its characteristics with varying leaf area index for three typical plant types (erect both upper and lower, upper erect and lower flat, and flat both upper and lower) were quantitatively analyzed by the model. The results indicated that there was a good agreement between the simulated and observed values. The root mean square error (RMSE), relative root mean square error (RRMSE) and correlation coefficient (r) of prediction of canopy light distribution in double cropping rice were 12.01 J ·m-2·s-1, 8.2% and 0.9929, respectively. Meanwhile, the RMSE, RRMSE and r of prediction of dry matter accumulation were 0.83 t·hm-2, 14.6% and 0.9772, respectively. It was indicated that the model had a performance. The upper erect and lower flat plant type had highest canopy daily photosynthate due to higher incident sun light received on the leaf surface, leaf photosynthetic efficiency and leaf area index.

Resistance value (R-value) is one of the basic subgrade stiffness characterizations that express a material’s resistance to deformation. In this paper, artificial intelligence (AI)-based models—especially M5P, support vector machine (SVM), and Gaussian process regression (GPR) algorithms—are built for R-value evaluation that meets the high precision and rapidity requirements in highway engineering. The dataset of this study comprises seven parameters: hydrated lime-activated rice husk ash, liquid limit, plastic limit, plasticity index, optimum moisture content, and maximum dry density. The available data are divided into three parts: training set (70%), test set (15%), and validation set (15%). The output (i.e., R-value) of the developed models is evaluated using the performance measures coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), relative squared error (RSE), root mean square error (RMSE), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), performance indicator (ρ), and visual framework (Taylor diagram). GPR is concluded to be the best performing model (R2, MAE, RSE, RMSE, RRMSE, and ρ equal to 0.9996, 0.0258, 0.0032, 0.0012, 0.0012, and 0.0006, respectively, in the validation phase), very closely followed by SVM, and M5P. The application used for the aforementioned approaches for predicting the R-value is also compared with the recently developed artificial neural network model in the literature. The analysis of performance measures for the R-value dataset demonstrates that all the AI-based models achieved comparatively better and reliable results and thus should be encouraged in further research. Sensitivity analysis suggests that all the input parameters have a significant influence on the output, with maximum dry density being the highest.

The error and bias of supplementing a short, arid climate, rainfall record with regional vs. global frequency analysis

Rainfall frequency analyses for four cities namely Benin City, Port Harcourt, Calabar and Uyo in Nigeria's Niger Delta area were carried out utilizing daily rainfall data from the yearly maxima series for 48 years (1965 – 2012) at each location. The study's goal was to identify the probability distribution model that fit the data the best and applicable to each location from among six candidate probability distribution models namely: Pearson Type III (PIII), log Normal (LN), log Pearson Type III, Generalized Extreme value (GEV), Extreme value type I (EVI), and Generalized Pareto (GPA). The method of moments (MOM) was used to estimate the distributions' parameters applying the outcomes of seven goodness of fit tests, the most optimal fit distribution model was chosen for each site namely Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Relative Root Mean Square Error (RRMSE), Maximum Absolute Derivation Index (MADI), Chi–Square etc. The best distribution model at each location was utilized to predict rainfall of desired return periods. Based on our findings, PIII for Benin City, GEV for Port Harcourt, GEV for Calabar and EVI and LN for Uyo are the distribution models that suit the data the best., The Best Fit Probability Distribution Model predicted rainfall return values (RT) at 200 years return period ranging from192.92mm at Uyo, 185mm at Port Harcourt; 218mm for Benin City; and 245 mm at Calabar.. The study's findings are helpful in the planning, designing, and maintaining of hydraulic structures for preventing flood damage and mitigating floods at the locations

Solar radiation is the principal and fundamental energy for many physical, chemical and biological processes. Estimation of solar radiation from other measured meteorological variables offers an important alternative in the absence of availability of measured solar radiation data. In this paper, we validate and assess four commonly used air temperature-based models including the Hargreaves and Samani, Hargreaves, Bristow & Campbell and Chen model and a local regression model, developed using long-term data from 14 sites in Yangtze River basin in China. We present the two-step method to estimate solar radiation from the commonly measured air temperature. The model performance is evaluated using root mean square error (RMSE), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), mean absolute bias error (MABE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Results show that the two-step method gives good performance and significantly outperforms the temperature-based models. The parameters determination equations of the two-step method are proposed to solve the difficult problem in parameter calibration at the site where no long-term observations of solar radiation and sunshine duration are available. It is found that the two-step method using the parameters determined by the proposed equations gives good performance, with the averaged R-2 of 0.881, RRMSE of 15.04% and MAPE of 12.67%. Therefore, the two-step method with the parameters determined by the proposed equations could be used to estimate solar radiation in Yangtze River basin. It is believed to be useful for the site where no measured solar radiation and sunshine duration data is available, whereas the air temperatures are common measured.

Predicting soil electrical conductivity using multi-layer perceptron integrated with grey wolf optimizer

Soil moisture (SM) monitoring in farmland at a regional scale is crucial for precision irrigation management and ensuring food security. However, existing methods for SM estimation encounter significant challenges related to accuracy, generalizability, and automation. This study proposes an integrated data fusion method to systematically assess the potential of three automated machine learning (AutoML) frameworks—tree-based pipeline optimization tool (TPOT), AutoGluon, and H2O AutoML—in retrieving SM. To evaluate the impact of input variables on estimation accuracy, six input scenarios were designed: multispectral data (MS), thermal infrared data (TIR), MS combined with TIR, MS with auxiliary data, TIR with auxiliary data, and a comprehensive combination of MS, TIR, and auxiliary data. The research was conducted in a winter wheat cultivation area within the People’s Victory Canal Irrigation Area, focusing on the 0–40 cm soil layer. The results revealed that the scenario incorporating all data types (MS + TIR + auxiliary) achieved the highest retrieval accuracy. Under this scenario, all three AutoML frameworks demonstrated optimal performance. AutoGluon demonstrated superior performance in most scenarios, particularly excelling in the MS + TIR + auxiliary data scenario. It achieved the highest retrieval accuracy with a Pearson correlation coefficient (R) value of 0.822, root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.038 cm3/cm3, and relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of 16.46%. This study underscores the critical role of input data types and fusion strategies in enhancing SM estimation accuracy and highlights the significant advantages of AutoML frameworks for regional-scale SM retrieval. The findings offer a robust technical foundation and theoretical guidance for advancing precision irrigation management and efficient SM monitoring.

Predictive modeling of swell-strength of expansive soils using artificial intelligence approaches: ANN, ANFIS and GEP

Tree height quantification using very high resolution imagery acquired from an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and automatic 3D photo-reconstruction methods

Chapter 21 - Optimally pruned extreme learning machine: A new nontuned machine learning model for predicting chlorophyll concentration

Crop yield prediction is of great importance for decision making, yet it remains an ongoing scientific challenge. Interactions among different genetic, environmental, and management factors and uncertainty in input values are making crop yield prediction complex. Building upon a previous work in which we coupled crop modeling with machine learning (ML) models to predict maize yields for three US Corn Belt states, here, we expand the concept to the entire US Corn Belt (12 states). More specifically, we built five new ML models and their ensemble models, considering the scenarios with and without crop modeling variables. Additional input values in our models are soil, weather, management, and historical yield data. A unique aspect of our work is the spatial analysis to investigate causes for low or high model prediction errors. Our results indicated that the prediction accuracy increases by coupling crop modeling with machine learning. The ensemble model overperformed the individual ML models, having a relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of about 9% for the test years (2018, 2019, and 2020), which is comparable to previous studies. In addition, analysis of the sources of error revealed that counties and crop reporting districts with low cropland ratios have high RRMSE. Furthermore, we found that soil input data and extreme weather events were responsible for high errors in some regions. The proposed models can be deployed for large-scale prediction at the county level and, contingent upon data availability, can be utilized for field level prediction.

The causes of agricultural drought are complex, and its actual occurrence process is often characterized by rapid onset in terms of time and small scale in terms of space. Monitoring agricultural drought using satellite remote sensing with low spatial resolution makes it difficult to accurately capture the details of small-scale drought events. High-resolution satellite remote sensing has relatively long revisit cycles, making it difficult to capture the rapid evolution of drought conditions. Furthermore, the occurrence of agricultural drought is linked to multiple factors including precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil properties, and crop physiological characteristics. Consequently, relying on a single variable or indicator is insufficient for multidimensional monitoring of agricultural drought. This study takes Hebi City, Henan Province as the research area. It uses Sentinel-1 satellite data (HV, VV), Sentinel-2 data (NDVI, B2, B11), elevation, slope, aspect, and GPM precipitation data from 2019 to 2024 as independent variables. Three machine learning algorithms—Random Forest (RF), Random Forest-Recursive Feature Elimination (RF-RFE), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)—were employed to construct a multi-dimensional agricultural drought monitoring model at the field scale. Additionally, the study verified the sensitivity of different environmental variables to agricultural drought monitoring and analyzed the accuracy performance of different machine learning algorithms in agricultural drought monitoring. The research results indicate that under the condition of full-factor input, all three models exhibit the optimal predictive performance. Among them, the XGBoost model performs the best, with the smallest Relative Root Mean Square Error (RRMSE) of 0.45 and the highest Correlation Coefficient (R) of 0.79. The absence of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data impairs the models’ ability to capture the patterns of key features, which in turn leads to a reduction in predictive accuracy. Meanwhile, there is a significant correlation between model performance and sample size. Ultimately, the constructed XGBoost model takes the lead with an accuracy of 89%, while the accuracies of Random Forest (RF) and Random Forest-Recursive Feature Elimination (RF-RFE) are 88% and 86%, respectively. Based on these three drought monitoring models, this study further monitored a drought event that occurred in Hebi City in 2023, presented the spatiotemporal distribution of agricultural drought in Hebi City, and applied the Mann–Kendall test for time series analysis, aiming to identify the abrupt change process of agricultural drought. Meanwhile, on the basis of the research results, the feasibility of verifying drought occurrence using irrigation signals was discussed, and the potential reasons for the significantly lower drought occurrence probability in the western mountainous areas of the study region were analyzed.