Wind Power Forecasting Using Wavelet Transform and General Regression Neural Network for Ontario Electricity Market

Nowadays , nonlinear time series and artificial neural networks (ANN) models are used for forecasting in the field of business, agriculture and soon. Recent studies have shown, ANN have been successfully used for forecasting of financial and agriculture data series The classical methods used for time series prediction like Box-Jenkins or ARIMA assumes that there is a linear relationship between inputs and outputs. ANN have more advantages that can approximate to model both linear and nonlinear structures in time series, they are not able to handling both structures equally well. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and two ANN models namely, Radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN), and Elman recurrent neural networks (ERNN) methods were applied to Hyderabad airport traffic data. The data obtained for 15 years from 2002–2003 to 2016–2017 about domestic and international passenger of International Airport of Hyderabad, India. In this research paper, we compared the performances of ARIMA, RBFNN and ERNN were based on three measures: mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and root mean square error (RMSE). The results showed that RBFNN obtained the smallest MAE, MAPE and RMSE in both the modeling and forecasting processes. The performances of the three models ranked in ascending order were: ARIMA, ERNN and the RBFNN model. Keywords: T ime series, forecasting, artificial neural networks, ARIMA models, radial basis function neural networks, and Elman recurrent neural networks Cite this Article R. Ramakrishna, Berhe Aregay, Tewodros Gebregergs. The Comparison in Time Series Forecasting of Air Traffic Data by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model, Radial Basis Function and Elman Recurrent Neural Networks. Research & Reviews: Journal of Statistics . 2018; 7(3): 75–90p.

The relation of the third molar to the development of the mandible

Globally, wind energy if properly harnessed, could serve as a source of energy generation in Africa. This study compared the performance of two Machine Learning (ML) algorithms (Linear regression and Random Forest) in predicting wind speed in five major cities in Africa (Yaoundé, Pretoria, Nairobi, Cairo and Abuja). Wind data were collected between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2022, using the Solar Radiation Data Archive. The data preprocessing was carried out with 80% of the data used for training and 20% for validation. The performance of these ML algorithms was evaluated using Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and coefficient of determination (R2). The result shows that Nairobi (3.814795 m/s) closely followed by Cairo (3.606453 m/s) has the highest mean wind speed while Yaoundé (1.090512 m/s) has the lowest. Based on the performance metrics used, the two Machine Learning algorithms were competitive. Still, the Linear Regression (LR) algorithm outperformed the Random Forest Algorithm in predicting wind speed in all the selected major African cities. In Yaoundé (RMSE = 0.3892, MAE= 0.3001, MAPE =0.5030), Pretoria (RMSE=1.2339, MAE=0.9480, MAPE=0.7450) Nairobi (RMSE= 0.4223, MAE =0.6499, MAPE =0.1872), Nairobi (RMSE=0.6499, MAE=0.5171, MAPE =0.1872), Cairo (RMSE =1.0909, MAE =0.8544, MAPE =0.3541) and Abuja (RMSE = 0.70245, MAE =0.5441, MAPE= 0.4515) the Linear regression algorithms was found to outperformed Random Forest Regression. Therefore, the Linear regression algorithm is more reliable in predicting wind speed compared with the Random Forest regression.

The purposes are to analyze the safety and real-time performance of intelligent transportation under big data and solve urban transportation safety problems. The existing problems of complex traffic data collection and single factor analysis are analyzed. Guangzhou target road section and its historical traffic flow are taken as the data source, the big data analytics (BDA) platform is constructed after preprocessing, and then the deep belief network (DBN) is introduced to build the intelligent transportation model based on BDA. Finally, the model is simulated to analyze its performance. The results reveal that the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of the proposed algorithm are 4.42%, 6.21%, and 8.03%, respectively compared to Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Neuro fuzzy c-means model (FCM), Deep Neural Network (DNN), and neural network (NN). The mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are 4.42%, 6.21% and 8.03% respectively. The prediction accuracy is significantly better than that of other algorithms. The analysis of Accuracy, Precision, Recall and F1 suggests that the safety prediction accuracy of the proposed algorithm can reach up to 88.57%, which is at least 3.19% higher than that of other algorithms. Meantime, the proposed algorithm can effectively inhibit the spread of congestion, and achieve the effect of timely evacuation for traffic congestion. Regarding the data transmission performance, the delay is less than 40ms and the packet loss rate is less than 0.1, which is significantly better than other model algorithms in real-time performance. Hence, the constructed intelligent transportation algorithm based on BDA has high precision and excellent congestion evacuation performance, which can provide an experimental basis for constructing intelligent and safe transportation in the future.

Modeling of energy consumption and related GHG (greenhouse gas) intensity and emissions in Europe using general regression neural networks

BackgroundMore than 79.2 million confirmed COVID-19 cases and 1.7 million deaths were caused by SARS-CoV-2; the disease was named COVID-19 by the World Health Organization. Control of the COVID-19 epidemic has become a crucial issue around the globe, but there are limited studies that investigate the global trend of the COVID-19 pandemic together with each country’s policy measures.ObjectiveWe aimed to develop an online artificial intelligence (AI) system to analyze the dynamic trend of the COVID-19 pandemic, facilitate forecasting and predictive modeling, and produce a heat map visualization of policy measures in 171 countries.MethodsThe COVID-19 Pandemic AI System (CPAIS) integrated two data sets: the data set from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker from the Blavatnik School of Government, which is maintained by the University of Oxford, and the data set from the COVID-19 Data Repository, which was established by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This study utilized four statistical and deep learning techniques for forecasting: autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), feedforward neural network (FNN), multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network, and long short-term memory (LSTM). With regard to 1-year records (ie, whole time series data), records from the last 14 days served as the validation set to evaluate the performance of the forecast, whereas earlier records served as the training set.ResultsA total of 171 countries that featured in both databases were included in the online system. The CPAIS was developed to explore variations, trends, and forecasts related to the COVID-19 pandemic across several counties. For instance, the number of confirmed monthly cases in the United States reached a local peak in July 2020 and another peak of 6,368,591 in December 2020. A dynamic heat map with policy measures depicts changes in COVID-19 measures for each country. A total of 19 measures were embedded within the three sections presented on the website, and only 4 of the 19 measures were continuous measures related to financial support or investment. Deep learning models were used to enable COVID-19 forecasting; the performances of ARIMA, FNN, and the MLP neural network were not stable because their forecast accuracy was only better than LSTM for a few countries. LSTM demonstrated the best forecast accuracy for Canada, as the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were 2272.551, 1501.248, and 0.2723075, respectively. ARIMA (RMSE=317.53169; MAPE=0.4641688) and FNN (RMSE=181.29894; MAPE=0.2708482) demonstrated better performance for South Korea.ConclusionsThe CPAIS collects and summarizes information about the COVID-19 pandemic and offers data visualization and deep learning–based prediction. It might be a useful reference for predicting a serious outbreak or epidemic. Moreover, the system undergoes daily updates and includes the latest information on vaccination, which may change the dynamics of the pandemic.

Essentially, Electricity Load Forecasting is an approximation of upcoming active loads from a variety of load buses before the active loads occur. Also, it is an important factor for power system energy management. Accurate and precise load forecasting can help to reduce the capacity of the power system, to make unit commitment decisions, and to increase the dependability of power systems. Hence, this paper presents a generalized regression Neural Network (GRNN) based approach for Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF). The results showed that the performance of GRNN with 30 neurons is better of short-term load forecasting in comparison with 10 neurons. For 10 neurons, the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) was 2.10% and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) was 306.21 MWh. However, for 30 neurons it was observed that MAPE is 1.81% and MAE 268.48 MWh.

A novel wavenets long short term memory paradigm for wind power prediction

Many problems existed in conventional Multiple Regression model constantly bother the researchers. These problems include multicollinearity problem and nonlinear problem among independent variables, which lead to the difficulty of accurate prediction of many problems. Therefore, in this article, an analysis method based on hybrid model is proposed, which combines Principle Component Regression (PCR) model and General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) to solve these two problems at the same time. First, in this article, the financial ratio data of companies with stocks listed in regular stock market and over-the-counter stock market in Taiwan and Mainland China are collected and used as sample data; moreover, Grey Relational Analysis is used to rank enterprise’s operation performance, and the enterprises in Taiwan and Mainland China with business operation performance in the first place are selected and their stock information collected to perform the prediction of stock closing price. In this article, the stock information are divided into training data and test data to perform model construction and verification; meanwhile, five indexes such as the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Revision Theil Inequality Coefficient (RTIC), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) of the test result are calculated; the empirical results show that the prediction power of the hybrid model of PCR+GAGRNN is obviously better than the model of PCR, GRNN and PCR+GRNN.

Setting up workable budgets symbolizes the competence of state highway agencies (SHAs) in fulfilling their responsibilities, and unreliable cost estimates can cause economic and political complications. The unclear scope definition and scarcity of project information available at early stages make it hard to generate reliable preliminary estimates. Hence, based on the 1,249 projects retrieved from the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) database, this research aimed to develop a cost estimation model using statistical learning methods for SHAs to forecast preliminary costs during the early stages of a transportation project to fulfill different cost control and managerial functions. However, the currently used methods have serious limitations. This study introduced alternative statistical learning approaches to the currently most used methods: least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and general regression neural network (GRNN). LASSO regression, for instance, has proved in other areas of science to be remarkably better in terms of variable selection, interpretability, and numerical stability. In addition, this study also accounted for economic factors in model development because economic conditions are influential on highway construction costs but have received limited attention. Using the same dataset, LASSO and GRNN models were developed, and then their performances were evaluated based on a set of criteria, e.g., the mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error. In comparison to the current practice with state DOTs, this research contributes to the body of knowledge by introducing a series of objective modeling approaches that can prevent human errors, requiring no substantial experience in preliminary estimating. Besides the introduction of statistical learning methods, this study took economic indicators into account when developing the models because they are important factors but have been ignored in previous studies. In addition, these statistical learning methods can produce reliable estimates in a much faster and more consistent fashion, which is critical, particularly considering the massive workload faced by most SHAs and the allowable time to make a preliminary estimate.

ObjectiveTo evaluate the service quality of integrated health and social care institutions for older adults in residential settings in China, addressing a critical gap in the theoretical and empirical understanding of service quality assurance in this rapidly expanding sector.MethodsThis study employs three machine learning algorithms—Backpropagation Neural Networks (BPNN), Feedforward Neural Networks (FNN), and Support Vector Machines (SVM)—to train and validate an evaluative item system. Comparative indices such as Mean Squared Error, Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and predictive performance metrics were employed to assess the models.ResultsThe service quality evaluation model, enhanced by factor analysis and fuzzy BPNN, demonstrated reduced error rates and improved predictive performance metrics. Key factors influencing service quality included daily care, medical attention, recreational activities, rehabilitative services, and psychological well-being, listed in order of their impact.ConclusionThe BPNN-based model provides a comprehensive and unified framework for assessing service quality in integrated care settings. Given the pressing need to match service supply with the complex demands of older adults, refining the service delivery architecture is essential for enhancing overall service quality.

A CNN encoder decoder LSTM model for sustainable wind power predictive analytics

Deep learning approaches for bias correction in WRF model outputs for enhanced solar and wind energy estimation: A case study in East and West Malaysia

Accurate prediction of the incidence of measles is an important prerequisite for the prevention and treatment of infectious diseases. Propose to use a combined prediction model. First, analyze the seasonal characteristics of measles to establish the seasonal autoregressive integral sliding average model. Second, use the residual correction method to optimize the gray model to obtain better fitting precision. Finally, input the predicted values of the optimized single-item model to the General Regression Neural Network to output the final measles incidence predictive value. The results show that the combined forecasting model is accurate for trend prediction, the surplus sum of squares, rms error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percent error are lower than the single prediction model, so the combined forecasting model’s prediction effect is good.

The prediction of wind speed is imperative nowadays due to the increased and effective generation of wind power. Wind power is the clean, free and conservative renewable energy. It is necessary to predict the wind speed, to implement wind power generation. This paper proposes a new model, named WT-GWO-BPNN, by integrating Wavelet Transform (WT), Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) and Grey Wolf Optimization (GWO). The wavelet transform is adopted to decompose the original time series data (wind speed) into approximation and detailed band. GWO – BPNN is applied to predict the wind speed. GWO is used to optimize the parameters of back propagation neural network and to improve the convergence state. This work uses wind power data of six months with 25, 086 data points to test and verify the performance of the proposed model. The proposed work, WT-GWO-BPNN, predicts the wind speed using a three-step procedure and provides better results. Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and Root mean squared error (RMSE) are calculated to validate the performance of the proposed model. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model has better performance when compared to other methods in the literature.