Wright’s path analysis: Causal inference in the early twentieth century

We present an instructional approach to teaching causal inference using Bayesian networks and do-Calculus, which requires less prerequisite knowledge of statistics than existing approaches and can be consistently implemented in beginner to advanced levels courses. Moreover, this approach aims to address the central question in causal inference with an emphasis on probabilistic reasoning and causal assumption. It also reveals the relevance and distinction between causal and statistical inference. Using a freeware tool, we demonstrate our approach with five examples that instructors can use to introduce students at different levels to the conception of causality, motivate them to learn more concepts for causal inference, and demonstrate practical applications of causal inference. We also provide detailed suggestions on using the five examples in the classroom.

By combining digital humanities text-mining tools and a qualitative approach, we examine changing concepts in forestry journals in Sweden and the United States (US) in the early twentieth and early twenty-first centuries. Our first hypothesis is that foresters at the beginning of the twentieth century were more concerned with production and less concerned with ecology than foresters at the beginning of the twenty-first century. Our second hypothesis is that US foresters in the early twentieth century were less concerned with local site conditions than Swedish foresters. We find that early foresters in both countries had broader—and often ecologically focused—concerns than hypothesized. Ecological concerns in the forestry literature have increased, but in the Nordic countries, production concerns have increased as well. In both regions and both time periods, timber management is closely connected to concerns about governance and state power, but the forms that governance takes have changed.

Many Latin American intellectuals and politicians of the early twentieth century grappled with the “Indian problem” as a central element in their national projects. In Peru, as in other countries, capitalcity elites dominated the debate. Provincial actors participated as well. Cuzco, with its Incaic heritage and continuing role as educational and administrative center, was one focal point. So too was Puno, the isolated capital of a heavily populated and overwhelmingly indigenous highland department. Indigenismo y nación examines one progressive, yet problematic, manifestation of provincial discourse: Puno’s Boletín Titikaka. The Boletín reflected the artistic, social, and political proclivities of the “Grupo Orkopata,” an informal cluster of local intellectuals that included about half a dozen core members and as many again less regular participants. The Grupo published 34 issues of this four-page, reasonably regular monthly journal between 1926 and 1930. The original title, Boletín Editorial Titikaka, persisted for two years and reflected an initial emphasis on publicity for the Grupo’s “Editorial Titikaka.” The contents always included laudatory national and international reactions to Editorial Titikaka’s limited output, plus an increasing quantity of original articles, artwork, and poems.Zevallos Aguilar’s study in particular probes the tensions inherent in the Grupo Orkopata’s unstated multiple agenda. It begins with a lengthy conceptual exploration of the contradictions that emerged as a group of provincial mestizo intellectuals sought at once to describe indigenous customs and beliefs, represent Indian priorities and needs, and prescribe public policy. The Grupo, moreover, laid claim to this multifaceted vanguard role as indigenous leaders and groups were themselves acting ever more assertively. Zevallos Aguilar also discusses divergent concepts of nation and nation building, both as perceived by different groups in early twentieth-century Puno and with reference to those who would today assess subaltern representation and agency.Zevallos Aguilar rehearses his theoretical landscape with detailed clarity. Nonetheless, at least two questions arise as he fleshes out his case: Was the Grupo Orkopata sufficiently coherent, productive, and distinct for its Boletín to sustain so close an analysis? And is Zevallos’s textual commentary sufficiently informed by the broader contexts of contemporary Puno to support his conceptual contentions? Indigenismo y nación draws upon intense and, at times, overly intentioned readings of some 22 short pieces from the Boletín. Only 7 of these articles were produced by individuals that Zevallos identifies as core members of the Grupo Orkopata (p. 24). Moreover, these brief contributions provide very sketchy representations of positions that their authors, in almost all cases, developed elsewhere at far greater length. A single-page piece by Cuzco’s Luis E. Valcárcel, to cite only one example, reflects but poorly that intellectual’s massive scientific, political, and polemical output. The presumed alignment between the Boletín Titikaka and the Grupo Orkopata may, for all these reasons, be too tenuous to sustain an argument that presupposes the Grupo’s programmatic (or participatory) coherence.The book’s cursory acknowledgements of Puno’s historical and intellectual contexts are problematic as well. The text only mentions in passing the arguably transformational impacts of (for instance) rail links to Cuzco and the coast, the pioneering missionary and social activity of the Seventh-Day Adventists (whose local consequences included a proliferation of Indian private schools and whose persecution catalyzed national legislation for religious tolerance), a host of Indian “rebellions” with widely varying goals, scale, and leadership patterns, and structured programs to make Puno’s core livestock industry more productive and profitable. These shifts, and others as well, helped to delimit the range of programmatic and analytical possibilities apparent to the provincial indigenistas who sponsored the Boletín Titikaka, as well as for their contemporaries.The work similarly overlooks the Boletín’s intellectual and literary environment. For example, Peru’s southern highlands were, at this time, awash in educational initiatives, most associated with nation-building projects and many preoccupied with Indians. A teacher-training program geared to indigenous education had been launched at Puno’s Colegio Nacional “San Carlos”; several members of the Grupo Orkopata were themselves normalistas. North American educator Albert Giesecke was, in the 1910s, appointed rector of Cuzco’s national university, sparking both institutional reform and a burst of academic and social activism. Arequipa, the urban hub of Puno’s hinterlands, continued its own strong traditions of political independence and sporadic radical commentary. Zevallos simply fails to acknowledge this local and regional context of intense intellectual effervescence.Indigenismo y nación promises provocative insights into a complex interplay of aspirations, agendas, projects, and events. Unfortunately, the focus is narrow, and the work’s historical and documentary groundings are weak. With barely one hundred pages of text, this study is in all respects slim.

Causal inference comprises the understanding of how a certain condition would change under a specific modification of the steady state of the world. In epidemiology, causal inference attempts to understand the cause of a certain disease at the population level. Statistical inference relates to the distribution of a disease in a given sample and how closely this distribution approximates the population-level distribution. Causal inference requires us to estimate the distribution of a given disease in the population under an intervention: how changing risk factor “X” would change disease distribution “Y.” Throughout history, several theories have been formulated to define and explain causation. Although a consensus on the definition of causation has not been reached, the field has developed tools for epidemiologists in the quest to infer causality, such as the use of directed acyclic graphs and novel analytical approaches. Accordingly, this chapter aims to (1) present an overview of historical theories of causation; (2) discuss the concepts of statistical and causal inference; and (3) present new approaches to infer causality that can be used in oral health epidemiology.

This study aimed to identify the level of statistical competence among first-year students enrolled in Probability and Statistics courses in engineering and business administration programs at a public higher education institution in Mexico, which covers topics in descriptive and inferential statistics. The research focused on three cognitive dimensions (statistical literacy, reasoning, and thinking) and one affective dimension (attitudes toward statistics). The design was non-experimental and cross-sectional with a descriptive scope, based on a quantitative approach using a questionnaire answered by 135 students using a stratified sampling to ensure representativeness. Results indicate stronger performance in statistical literacy, followed by reasoning, while statistical thinking appears to be underdeveloped. In the affective dimension, significant correlations were found among enjoyment, perceived utility, motivation, confidence, and anxiety, suggesting a positive emotional influence on learning. We concluded that the main difficulties stem from prior instruction focused on isolated procedures with limited critical integration. The findings highlight the need to rethink traditional and fragmented teaching approaches and move toward active pedagogical strategies, the incorporation of technologies, and the development of collaborative and research-oriented projects that promote meaningful experiences, critical thinking, and the use of data in real-world contexts.

This anthology of articles on causal inference and scientific paradigms in epidemiology covers several important topics including the search for causal explanations, the strengths and limitations of causal criteria, quantitative approaches for assessing causal relationships that are relevant to epidemiology and emerging paradigms in epidemiologic research. In order to provide historical context, an overview of philosophical and historical developments relevant to causal inference in epidemiology and public health is also provided. Several theoretical and applied aspects of causal inference are dealt with. The aim of this Ebook is not only to summarize important developments in causal inference in epidemiology but also to identify possible ways to enhance the search for causal explanations for diseases and injuries. Examples are provided from such fields as chronic disease epidemiology, Veterans health, and environmental epidemiology. A particular goal of the Ebook is to provide ideas for strengthening causal inference in epidemiology in the context of refined research paradigms. These topics are important because the results of epidemiologic studies contribute to generalizable knowledge by clarifying the causes of diseases, by combining epidemiologic data with information from other disciplines (for example, psychology and industrial hygiene), by evaluating the consistency of epidemiologic data with etiological hypotheses about causation, and by providing the basis for evaluating procedures for health promotion and prevention and public health practices.

There is a growing feeling in the statistical community that significant changes must be made in statistical education. Statistical education has traditionally focused on developing knowledge and skills and assumed that students would create value for the subject in the process. This approach hasn't worked. It is argued that we can help students better learn statistical thinking and methods and create value for its use by focusing both the content and delivery of statistical education on how people use statistical thinking and methods to learn, solve problems, and improve processes. Learning from your experiences, by using statistical thinking in real-life situations, is an effective way to create value for a subject and build knowledge and skills at both the graduate and undergraduate levels. The learnings from psychology and behavioral science are also shown to be helpful in improving the delivery of statistical education.

In Service of Two Masters is an institutional history of the Franciscan mission of Santa Rosa de Ocopa in the colonial viceroyalty of Peru. Located in the eastern jungle region, with its harsh climate, Ocopa presided over one of the largest mission fields in the New World. Cameron D. Jones's aim is to put Ocopa into the “wider political and intellectual context” of the Bourbon reforms, the Enlightenment, and Atlantic history, and he succeeds in this (p. 6).In the eighteenth century, the Roman Catholic Church extended a European project of creating colleges de propaganda fide to the Americas. This policy turned established monasteries, like Ocopa, into institutes to train missionaries in native languages. Doing so removed the monasteries from local control, so that rather than reporting to the provincial of the order in Peru, they reported to the commissary general of the Indies in Spain. That, and the fact that nearly three-quarters of Ocopa missionaries were recruited from Spain, put Ocopa into the crosshairs of Bourbon reform conflicts as the crown sought to exert greater control by putting more peninsulars (presumably more loyal than creoles) into colonial offices.Church-state conflict was also worsened as Spanish regalists endeavored to redirect money to the crown from church coffers. Although the Franciscans began their mission with a Lascasian aim of peaceful conversion by example, over the eighteenth century they began to fall in line with the “new method of spiritual government” that, influenced by classic liberalism and Enlightenment-era ideology, placed commerce front and center in evangelization (pp. 140–43, 169). The lowland native people whom Ocopa missionized would be introduced to capitalism (as if they had remained outside its influence before this) and through this would learn Spanish culture and religion. Jones problematizes the Franciscan mission at Ocopa by revealing the deep divisions over the implementation of this new strategy. This is not a history that glorifies the Franciscan missionary effort.As Jones points out, the historiography of Ocopa shifted in the early twentieth century, when indigenismo began to put indigenous (or at least creole) history front and center; since then, the 1740s rebellion of Juan Santos Atahualpa has dominated Ocopa's history. Jones devotes nearly a quarter of his book to Juan Santos Atahualpa, whom Jones paints as a millenarian leader whose supporters followed him because of the Inkarrí myth, the idea that the Inca would return and create an Andean utopia. However, the Inkarrí myth was recorded by twentieth-century anthropologists; there is little or no evidence for this in colonial documents other than statements from Spanish bureaucrats who, much like the Franciscans whom Jones writes about, voiced their beliefs about indigenous motivations and aims mainly through racist clichés. Plugging the Inkarrí idea into the mid-eighteenth century suggests that the rebels held a prepolitical worldview. However, Jones cites a contemporary who wrote that Juan Santos Atahualpa claimed to be the legitimate descendant of the Inca who wanted to “restore his kingdom from the power of the Spanish and free his vassals from the tyrannies that they suffer” (p. 56). The same source reported that Juan Santos Atahualpa traveled throughout the Andes in 1729–30, making it possible that he was familiar with ideas already circulating in Oruro that called for the expulsion of the Spanish and putting an Inca on an American throne. The 1739 Manifesto of Oruro, composed by creoles in the mining center of Oruro who sought to unite with indigenous Andeans to oust the Spaniards, was a major influence on Túpac Amaru and puts Juan Santos Atahualpa's call for ridding the Andes of Spanish tyranny in a political rather than millenarian light.Jones cites several contemporaries who argued that the uprising was triggered by the refusal to ordain native priests. Somewhat surprisingly, Ocopa supported a native priesthood, but regalist ministers in Madrid “opposed such deviations from orthodox social hierarchies” (p. 60). Ordination could empower indigenous people, putting them in control of not only religious practices but also the funds generated through those practices, especially confraternal activities. There is also a suggestion that the rebellion was partly a product of conflict between Franciscans and Jesuits. Juan Santos Atahualpa targeted Franciscans, calling for them to be sent back to Spain but allowing Jesuits to remain in Peru.In Service of Two Masters is a fine contribution to mission history that will also appeal to those interested in the local impact of the Bourbon reforms. Jones puts the voluminous Franciscan writings of the era to good use, as well as his extensive research in Peruvian and Spanish archives. There is much food for thought in this clearly written study.

Causal inference in empirical archival financial accounting research

Since 2022, the school course «Probability and Statistics» has been taught as a compulsory subject in all schools in Russia, and questions on it are included in the Unified State Exam. However, international experience in teaching the basics of statistics shows that this is not an easy task. It includes not only teaching students how to prove the theorems of mathematical statistics and explain the calculation of the median and variance, but also contributes to the development of statistical thinking in them – the ability to make decisions based on the analysis of empirical data. According to the authors, the statistical community cannot and should not replace teachers who promote the teaching of statistics at school, but it has the opportunity to make a significant contribution to this process.The article presents the experience of the All-Russian School competition on statistics «Trend», the All-Russian teacher competition for the best practices in teaching statistics «We train the best!», with the support of the territorial bodies of state statistics in St. Petersburg, Kirov and Rostov regions; master classes for hundreds of teachers teaching statistics in grades 7–11. In addition, the article presents plans for organizing a competition on civil statistics aimed at developing skills in working with statistical data, as well as teaching the basics of statistical analysis, the use of visualization tools, and the formation of citizenship through familiarity with objective statistical information

This essay presents an investigation into the possibility of inference of causality from historical research, starting from the perception that the encounter of the causal explanation of an event is among the main motivations of many researchers. It begins with an explanatory analysis of cause, determinism and principle of causality, followed by history and historical method. It uses bibliographic data and positions itself as an interaction of social practice. The analysis was made from dialogical debates on content and theoretical triangulations, with the application of a dialectical model, based on positivism and interpretivism. The work seeks to bring to the scientific community an analysis on the subject.

Introduction and Objective. The studio movement in Kharkiv in the early twentieth century was an important prerequisite for the spread of innovative ideas that turned Kharkiv into one of the main centres of the Ukrainian avant-garde in the early twenties. The leader of this movement was the Kharkiv artist Yevhen Agafonov and the Blue Lily Studio (1907-1912) he founded. The purpose of the article is to clarify the membership of the Blue Lily Studio, to analyse in detail the types of its activities, to establish the relationship between its members, and to understand the significance of the studio. Methods. The study is based on the analysis of archival documents (correspondence, memoirs, etc.) and periodicals of Kharkiv in the first quarter of the twentieth century. Comparison and comparative analysis of the data allowed to reconstruct the evolution of the Blue Lily Studio, fill in factual gaps, and structure the activities of Yevhen Agafonov's studio by areas. Results. The article examines the prerequisites for the appearance of the studio movement in Kharkiv in the early twentieth century and analyses in detail the activities of the Blue Lily Studio. A significant array of documentary materials is introduced into scientific circulation, which allows to significantly expand the source base of the study of the studio movement and the Blue Lily Studio in particular. The study presents the most complete list of Blue Lily members to date, creating a panoramic picture of the studio itself and its artistic practices in the context of the Kharkiv studio movement. Founded by Kharkiv artist Yevhen Agafonov as a studio, Blue Lily quickly turned into an artistic association, as its members were not only engaged in painting and drawing, but also in various artistic and cultural activities. The studio members participated in exhibitions and published a literary and artistic almanac "Blue Lily" (1911), which contained literary works and reproductions of works by the studio members. The almanac reflected the studio's engraving activities and contained the first known publication of works by the Ukrainian avant-garde artist Maria Synyakova-Urechyna. The studio became also involved in theatre, as Yevhen Agafonov was the set decorator of the first cabaret theatre in Kharkiv, the Blue Eye, and the theatre decorations for the performances of this theatre were made in the Blue Lily Studio. In parallel with the Blue Eye Theatre, the studio members had their own amateur theatre, where they performed their own plays. Despite the Blue Lily's stylistic affiliation to Art Nouveau (German: Jugendstil), the studio also has features of the avant-garde as a network, as it combined artistic, exhibition, literary and theatrical activities and became the first association on the Ukrainian territory of the former Russian Empire to feature such a synthesis of the arts. After the closure of the Blue Lily Studio, its members created the Thistle Studio, from which a left-wing group split off in 1914 and opened its own Nakos-Vykus Studio of Sosvetor Futurists. The First World War interrupted the vibrant and fruitful studio life in Kharkiv. Conclusions. Ukrainian cultural processes in Kharkiv in the early twentieth century appear as a product of the activities of local cultural figures who relied on local traditions and were oriented towards European ideas, methods, and practices. The Blue Lily Studio combined different types of artistic activity and had features of the avant-garde as a network, becoming the first such association in Ukraine in the early twentieth century. For further research, it is important to fit the activities of the Blue Lily Studio into the European cultural process and clearly define both its European features and Ukrainian national characteristics.

This study aims to broaden our historical knowledge about ideas of rationalism and monocultures in forestry science and rational forest management. Empirically, it focuses on the writings of Swedish forestry scientist Henrik Hesselman, active in the early twentieth century. The texts were analyzed using the method of historical contextualization. The study indicates that monocultures historically have been subjected to debates richer than what previous research gives credit for. Besides a rationalist technology, monocultures have been conceptualized as an example of non-rational forestry failing to deliver sustainable yields. Moreover, instead of only simplifications, one-size-fits-all solutions, and top-down reforms, historical forestry science representatives have also at times understood rational forest management as a quest for complexity, site-specific solutions, and bottom-up approaches. It is argued that our understanding of forest use and society–environment relations, more generally, benefit from more historical contextualization.

This paper was prepared while the author was a staff member in the Methodology in Sociology training program at the University of Wisconsin, a project funded by the Institute of General Medical Sciences, N.I.H. The author is grateful to Hubert M. Blalock, Jr., and Otis Dudley Duncan for comments and criticisms of an earlier draft. They are in no way responsible for remaining errors, and the author is solely responsible for the general orientation and tone of the exposition.

Among the complex large quantity of sports phenomenon and sports issues, we need to discuss the causal relationship and essential rule in between.Mathematical statistics is one of the common and practical methods for causal inference.In order to better understand, select, and use mathematical statistic methods, and to avoid deviation of research result due to misuse or even abuse of statistic methods, this paper, through literature and comparative analysis, enumerates the basic theory, model of calculation formula, applicable condition, and operation process of common causal relationship statistical methods, including partial correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis, path analysis, and structural method model, with raising limitation of these methods at the same time.These methods have the same logic, but different principles and calculation process, with one of them a panacea.Therefore, research result of high reliability and validity can only be drawn by full understanding of the applicable conditions of the various methods and comprehensive use of various methods based on actual condition.