- Research Article
1
- 10.25236/ajcis.2025.081013
Prediction of Optimal NIPT Timing and Analysis of Influencing Factors of Fetal Y Chromosome Concentration Based on Robust Bayesian Ridge Regression
- Jan 01, 2025
- Academic Journal of Computing & Information Science
- Ning Zhang</P> <P>Panlin Li
This study, based on NIPT data from 1082 male fetuses, systematically analyzed the relationship between fetal Y chromosome concentration and factors such as gestational age and maternal BMI, and constructed a model to predict the optimal testing time. Results showed that Y chromosome concentration was positively correlated with gestational age (r=0.456, p<0.001) and negatively correlated with BMI (r=-0.234, p=0.002), suggesting that concentration increases with gestational age, while a higher BMI delays the achievement of effective concentrations. To address multicollinearity and outliers, a robust Bayesian ridge regression model was employed, and further comparisons were made with multiple linear regression, nonlinear models, and random forest methods. The random forest model demonstrated the best prediction performance (R²=0.9924, MAE=0.115 weeks), enabling individualized NIPT timing prediction with subweekly accuracy. This proposed model provides a scientific basis for optimizing NIPT testing time, reducing duplicate sampling, and improving test accuracy in clinical practice.
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