Abstract As global power structures shift and energy security becomes increasingly politicized, tracing the cross-border transmission of uncertainty between economically and strategically linked nations has become crucial. This study investigates the dynamic interdependence of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and energy-related uncertainty (EUI) between Germany and Russia over 2001–2023. We first examine bilateral linkages between the EPU and EUI indices using static and dynamic correlation measures. Standard and time-varying Granger causality tests reveal a persistent unidirectional influence from German to Russian EPU, while reverse causality remains weak. In the EUI domain, the causal structure is more volatile and bidirectional, with Russia influencing Germany before the 2022 Russo-Ukrainian War, but Germany becoming the dominant driver afterward. To isolate the role of energy in the transmission of policy uncertainty, we orthogonalize each country's EPU with respect to its own EUI. The results show that much of the bilateral EPU correlation is energy-driven; however, Germany's EPU component, unrelated to energy, still significantly affects Russian EPU in the post-war period. These findings highlight the strategic importance of energy policy in shaping macroeconomic uncertainty and highlight the need for its explicit integration into international economic policymaking.

Abstract This contribution aims to address the intriguing issue of whether Industry 4.0, as a techno-economic paradigm shifter, may have a greater potential for exaptation (i.e., using it not for pursuing of quantitative but that of qualitative development) and, if so, what technologies may accelerate this process. Existing research indicates that graphene technology has the potential to lead the way in this area. The paper addresses not only why and how a graphene-aided Industry 4.0 can be conducive to this function (i.e., making exaptations easier on a larger scale), it examines the wider context for exaptations by questioning whether the current setup of the real economy, the financial universe, and the public sector offers a supportive environment for exaptations.

Abstract Tax evasion is reducing the revenues of public budgets of many European Union (EU) Member States (MS). To improve the effectiveness of tax collection, during the last decade authorities in several MS have taken measures to reduce the value added tax (VAT) gap (i.e., revenue received as a percentage of theoretical liability). In the Central and Eastern European region, VAT gap reduction measures have been implemented effectively in Hungary and Poland, whereas in Romania the effectiveness of these measures is very low: Romania has been the worst-performing EU MS in collecting VAT for more than 10 years. Our study analyses the factors influencing this VAT gap. Our analysis relied mainly on a fixed effects panel regression model, using for a balanced panel an individual and time fixed-effects with cluster-robust standard errors model, and for the unbalanced panel the fixed-effects regression with individual-specific slopes. Our results show that the size of the VAT gap is primarily influenced by five variables: the transparency index, the tax collection ratio, the law enforcement index, the VAT revenues ratio and the digitisation index.

Abstract János Kornai has achieved a wide-scope multifaceted theoretical analysis moving from Marx to Walras-Lange, then to post-Keynesian disequilibrium economics, and eventually, to Hayek and economic institutionalism. Such a travel is not without meeting dilemmas that Kornai has had to struggle with and opt to resolve them in some way. Such process is illustrated first with a planner's dilemma. On the one hand, Kornai has elaborated on – together with Tamás Lipták – a mathematically ‘super’ solution to finding the optimal plan through a two-level planning procedure. But once implemented the latter has appeared to be too slow, and Kornai has rejected Lange's ideas for Hayek's criticism against central planning. A second dilemma is about how to analyse a centrally-planned shortage (excess demand) economy in which those industries privileged in the planners' pecking order priorities were producing an excess supply of (useless) goods. Kornai did not find a solution in the current disequilibrium economics but, instead, in a ‘lax’ communist bureaucracy generating a soft budget constraint. The third dilemma is that Kornai's views about disequilibria have not converged with the Post-Keynesian disequilibrium models. The latter were unable to conceive a simultaneous excess demand and excess supply in a same market, due to their so-called shorter-side rule. Instead, Kornai has found a solution that fits with theorising the observed micro (or even infra-micro) disequilibria in a Debreu's book, some years after having published a hard criticism of neo-classical microeconomics. A final question is raised: is Kornai's theory a decisive contribution to the analysis of comparative economic systems – that no one denies – or has he added some value to a more general theory of economic disequilibrium?

Abstract The most significant concept of János Kornai's oeuvre is the shortage economy theory as it was presented in Anti-equilibrium more than fifty years ago. According to this, modern economies are never in equilibrium. On the markets of goods and services, the aggregate demand is either significantly higher or significantly lower than the aggregate supply. This dichotomous model is discussed in the first part of the paper.After the collapse of the communist system in 1989/90, shortages disappeared everywhere unexpectedly quickly. But it was also an unexpected development that the institutions of liberal democracy have not developed in several countries and/or collapsed after a short period. Regarding Hungary, Kornai issued an alarm signal at the turn of 2010/2011. He was the first who said that the Orbán regime had turned the country into an autocracy in barely a year. The second part of the paper examines whether Kornai's assertion, shared by many transition-economy specialist, that there are only two political systems (democracies and autocracies) is adequate for the entire range of post-socialist countries. The author's answer to this question is negative.

Abstract Based on the structure of János Kornai's ‘main line of causality’, two unique country cases are compared within the former European socialist bloc: Albania and the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. The research provides a comparative analysis with an overview of the two countries' development between World War II and the fall of the socialist regimes. Special attention is paid to the period following the 1970s as the underlying reforms had been implemented in Yugoslavia by then, leading to fundamentally different socialist prototypes. Regarding the differences, the analysis also gives an insight into the structure of the two respective banking systems. Kornai's ‘main line of causality’ provides the framework for the current research, supplemented by the respective literature. The analysis concludes that despite the fact that all blocks of the causality line differed in the two systems, similar challenges had to be addressed during the transition period. Furthermore, Albania and the successor states of Yugoslavia reflected a range of common characteristics, which implies the relevance of path dependence.

Abstract Kornai challenged not only the dominant economic views of the socialist system, but also those of market economies. The former brought him fame, and the latter remained, so to speak, his scientific testament. He studied the systemic properties of different economic systems through the analytical grid of the sign of aggregate excess supply, which defined three categories: shortage economies, equilibrium economies and surplus economies. In this paper, we show that business plans postulated with the aim of realizing strictly positive net retained profits in nominal terms exclude equilibrium economies; these business plans imply a surplus economy. This definition of the business plan makes it possible to combine seemingly disparate results from different parts of the economic literature. An economy in which business plans are the rule and no economic agent can run a permanent negative budget is a surplus economy, which manifests itself in the phenomena of both growth imperative and realization problem. In short, all these phenomena are the manifestations of the same essence: the working of the business plans.

Abstract This paper shows how the three economic policy uncertainties (EPUs), namely global economic uncertainty, US economic policy uncertainty and German economic policy uncertainty, impact the industrial production of 8 Central and Eastern European countries. The investigation is done in both time and frequency domains, using the wavelet coherence and wavelet correlation approaches. The US EPU has the strongest effect on all industrial productions, while this effect was recorded during the global financial crisis and the corona virus pandemic. The most intense effect was found in the time-horizon between 4 and 8 months. The Czech Republic and Hungary suffer the strongest impact from EPU, probably because these two economies have relatively high ratio of export (import) vis-à-vis GDP. We fail to find very strong and wide areas of coherence in the Slovakian plot, although Slovakia has the highest level of export (import) to GDP. However, the wavelet correlation findings indicate that Slovakia has relatively high negative correlation at third wavelet scale, which is perfectly in compliance with its high export (import) share in GDP.

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic affected all countries both in social and economic dimensions. Currently, vaccination is considered to be one of the most efficient solutions which can stop the further spread of the virus. Therefore, the paper aims to understand the factors that determined the social approval of the COVID-19 vaccines in Romania. To get a detailed picture on the situation, we looked not only at economic variables, but also at social and demographic components. Accordingly, the findings of the analysis list the variables that significantly influence the vaccination rate nationwide. The social approval (or the refusal) of these shots is a complex issue, thus it is essential that policymakers make decisions based on scientific evidence. The practical relevance of the paper lies in the two policy implications suggested (i.e., transparent and predictable policymaking and adjustments on the level of the education system in the long run for similar situations), which also highlight the importance of evidence-based decision-making processes in public health. Our analysis method consists of multivariate cross-sectional OLS regressions.

Abstract We aimed to enrich the empirical picture and to better understand the nature of post-communist capitalism in the new EU member states in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE11). Our main research goal is to assess the degree of similarity of the institutional architectures in these countries toward each of the four models of capitalism in Western Europe distinguished by Bruno Amable (2003), represented in our research by one Western European country being the most typical empirical approximation of a particular ‘ideal-typical’ model. The study is based on the application of a new method designed for the purpose of our research, the coefficients of similarity. Our empirical exercise shows that the CEE11 countries exhibited on average the greatest relative similarity to the Mediterranean model of capitalism, represented by Spain and Italy. At the same time, they also displayed a considerable institutional proximity to the Continental model of capitalism, represented by Germany, and – to a lesser extent – to two remaining benchmarks. These findings may be generalized as the prevalence of a polycentric pattern of institutional similarity of the CEE11 economies to the established models of Western European capitalism which makes the emerging post-communist capitalism a distinct research category and adds to its patchwork nature.