The problem of higher food prices for impoverished people in the rural global South
If current global economic trends continue, it is highly probable that the world will face substantial hikes in food prices over the coming decades. These outcomes have crucial significance for poverty and nutrition in the rural global South, where 75–80 per cent of the world’s food-insecure people live. Within the international development community there is an intriguing debate currently taking place on how these prospects will be manifested. The core of the debate is whether higher food prices will impact positively or negatively on rural populations. On the one hand, higher food prices should mean better returns for farmers. Because agricultural-dependent households constitute substantial proportions of the rural population, these processes would be expected to generate significant net benefits in terms of poverty alleviation and food security. On the other hand, substantial proportions of the population of the rural global South have become de-agrarianised, as their livelihoods become detached from farming. For these households, food needs are met from market purchases, and higher food prices will have undeniably negative effects. It is timely to assert a geographic perspective into these debates. The United Nations is sponsoring a new set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) which will replace the Millennium Development Goals that expire in 2015. The capacity for food systems to meet the world’s hunger and sustainability needs will figure prominently in the SDGs. The way this debate is arbitrated will shape the ways that the needs of rural populations are presented in the SDG process, and this will flow through into the manner in which it is prioritised (or not) within national and multilateral aid and development strategies. This Thinking Space sets out an agenda for how geographical voices can best be inserted into these debates. It contextualises the issue, and then argues that there is an emergent consensus among (non-geographical) researchers that higher food prices will have highly variegated social and economic outcomes. In these circumstances, space is created for geographical perspectives to assert themselves. To date, debate over the implications of higher food prices on the world’s rural poor has been dominated by disciplines (notably, economics) that are inherently less attuned to the importance of space and place. A greater level of participation by
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