In the dynamic and volatile capital market, understanding the factors that influence stock prices is essential for making informed investment decisions. Stock price movements are influenced by rational, fundamental information, irrational investor behavior, and sentiment. This study aims to analyze the influence of rational and irrational factors on stock prices in the Indonesian banking sector during the 2020-2024 period. The rational variables include price-to-book value (PBV), financial literacy, technology adoption, and interest rates, while irrational influence is represented by investor sentiment or mood. Using a dynamic panel data approach with the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), this study examines four major Indonesian banks: Bank Mandiri, BNI, BRI, and BCA. The results show that PBV, financial literacy, and technology adoption significantly affect stock prices, while interest rates have a significant negative effect. Additionally, investor sentiment has a considerable positive impact, indicating that emotional and psychological factors can drive stock price movements beyond fundamental valuation. This research presents a novel analytical model that integrates rational and irrational perspectives, offering a comprehensive understanding of stock price volatility in emerging markets. It suggests that investors, companies, and policymakers must consider both fundamental indicators and market sentiment simultaneously to make accurate, timely investment decisions.

This paper assesses the effectiveness of movement restriction policies in Indonesia (Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions, NPIs) in controlling COVID-19 transmission and their implications for regional economic performance. By integrating an epidemiological framework with the model of economic growth, this study offers a novel approach to assessing how public health policies interact with economic dynamics at the provincial level in period July 2020 – September 2021. Using district-level data from Kawalcovid19 and MoH, the analysis shows comprehensive restriction packages such as PSBB II and PPKM Level 1-4 were largely ineffective nationwide. In contrast, specific interventions such as stricter school closures, workplace closures, and international travel controls were significantly associated with fewer new cases in Java and Indonesia while did not hinder provincial economic growth. These results underscore the value of targeted, evidence-based measures over broad restrictions. The paper contributes to the literature by bridging epidemiological modeling and economic growth analysis, offering insights for designing pandemic responses that balance health protection and economic stability. The study provides policy insights for managing future pandemics in developing countries with large informal sectors and limited fiscal capacity.

This study aims to analyze how institutional quality and financial stability influence foreign direct investment (FDI) in Asian countries, examining differences across country income groups. This study utilizes data from 39 Asian countries spanning the years 2013 to 2021. The analytical tool used is the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), consisting of first-difference GMM and system GMM. Furthermore, this study uses principal component analysis (PCA) to calculate composite variables related to the institutional quality index. The results show that institutional quality and financial stability have a positive overall impact on FDI in Asian countries. However, the impact varies depending on the country's level of income. Institutional quality has a more significant impact in high-income countries, while in lower-middle-income countries, economic growth is the primary determinant of FDI. These findings emphasize the importance of improving governance and financial stability in attracting foreign investment. Governments, particularly in lower-middle-income countries, need to strengthen law enforcement, reduce corruption, maintain political stability, and create regulations that support an investment climate to make it more attractive to foreign investors

The Village Fund program has enabled the widespread implementation of village development initiatives that involve local communities as the subjects of development (i.e., Community Driven Development) across various countries, including Indonesia. Despite receiving substantial village funds, West Java, one of Indonesia's provinces, exhibits slow growth in the Village Development Index (IDM). This study examines the effect and impact of Village Funds on achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), as measured by the IDM in West Java Province. The methodology employs a panel data regression with fixed effects and a Difference-in-Difference (DiD) analysis on 5,312 villages that received Village Funds between 2018 and 2023. Findings indicate that Village Funds significantly impact the IDM, primarily through infrastructure projects within the village development sector. Furthermore, the regression analysis revealed that all sectors positively and significantly influence the IDM, particularly the village development implementation sector. Conversely, the DiD analysis suggests that the alignment of Village Fund activities with the SDGs has not significantly affected IDM growth in West Java. Thus, to accelerate village development, the government must balance the prioritization of Village Funds. This balance should move beyond solely focusing on infrastructure development to encompass activities in other fields, such as village community empowerment

This study aims to analyze the effect of the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) and upstream oil and gas state-owned assets on oil non-tax state revenue from the oil and gas sector, with oil production considered as a potential mediating variable. Using the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, the study examines short-run relationships through Granger causality and t-statistics, as well as long-term contributions via Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD). The results show that the ICP has a positive and statistically significant effect on oil non-tax state revenue. In contrast, upstream oil and gas state-owned assets and oil production do not exhibit significant short-run effects. Moreover, oil production does not function as a mediator in the relationship. Nonetheless, FEVD results suggest that the ICP and oil production make meaningful long-term contributions to oil non-tax state revenue, indicating underlying structural links not captured by short-run causality. These findings highlight the importance of managing oil price fluctuations and designing fiscal structures that are responsive to global oil market dynamics.

This study investigates the impact of regional spillover effects on economic growth in Central Java’s regencies and cities, focusing on Knowledge Spillover, Industry Spillover, Private Investment Spillover, and Government Expenditure Spillover using a spatial econometrics panel model. The results indicate significant effects on local economic growth; however, direct spillover effects, which are represented by the variable Wx in the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM), were not significant. This may be due to limited resource mobility, varying regional absorption capacities, and temporal dynamics. Direct spillover effects typically involve immediate economic interactions between neighboring regions, but in this study, these effects did not materialize as expected. Conversely, indirect spillover effects, reflected by spatial parameters ρ in the Spatial Autoregressive Model (SAR) and λ in the Spatial Error Model (SEM), highlight the importance of broader spatial dynamics across regions. These effects underscore the significance of interregional linkages rather than direct regional interactions, showing that regional synergies play a crucial role in fostering economic growth. From a policy perspective, the study recommends strengthening interregional cooperation by enhancing mechanisms such as information flow, technology transfer, and investment. Investment in digital infrastructure, the creation of innovation hubs, and cross-regional investment funds can help bridge the development gap and foster sustainable growth. Policies that support labor mobility and skill-building opportunities, especially for marginalized groups and women, are essential to promote equitable and inclusive economic development across regions

Payment systems continue to evolve alongside advancements in information technology, driving the digitization of financial services and payment instruments. This study examines the influence of Psychological, Socio-Cultural, and Personal Factors on adopting electronic money and the growth of a cashless society, with Financial Technology as a moderating variable. The research involved 1,000 Bank BNI customers in the Jabodetabek area (Jakarta, Bogor, Depok, Tangerang, and Bekasi) actively using BNI Mobile Banking services. The analytical methods employed include Discourse Network Analysis and Structural Equation Modeling to develop a comprehensive analysis model. The results indicate that psychological and personal factors—such as motivation, perception, learning, positive attitude, modern lifestyle, and openness to change—significantly influence electronic money usage. However, socio-cultural factors do not exhibit a significant impact, primarily due to persistent cash usage habits and a lack of trust in technology. This study highlights the need for financial education to promote awareness of electronic money benefits and security, develop tailored financial products, and enhance regulatory collaboration between the government and relevant institutions.

Indonesia has consistently failed to meet its tax revenue targets in recent years, primarily due to extensive shadow economy activities aimed at tax evasion. This study seeks to measure the sensitivity of cash demand in estimating the shadow economy across Indonesia's 34 provinces during the post-tax amnesty period from 2016 to 2022 and to assess its impact on potential tax revenue losses. Utilizing a quantitative methodology, the research employs panel data regression with a Random Effects Model. The shadow economy is estimated using a monetary approach model based on cash demand sensitivity. The dependent variables include total currency demand and potential tax revenue, while the independent variables comprise tax burden, inflation rate, Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), financial and technological innovation (represented by internet use for financial purposes), and the shadow economy. The findings reveal that the tax burden, inflation, and financial/technological innovations do not significantly influence cash demand, whereas income has a significant positive effect. Moreover, the shadow economy substantially affects potential tax revenue losses. On average, the shadow economy across the 34 provinces amounts to IDR 292.152 billion, with an average potential tax revenue loss of IDR 35.306 billion

Economic growth and labor productivity are important things for a region. This research analyzes the influence of investment, technological change, health, and minimum wages on economic growth and labor productivity. The geographically weighted regression (GWR) model is used to analyze spatial data, which produces local parameter estimates for each point/location where the data is collected. It was found that investment significantly affects economic growth in 18 provinces in Indonesia. ICT has a significant effect on economic growth in 3 provinces, and education (PPT) has a significant impact on labor productivity in 23 provinces. Low quality of health significantly affects the economic decline in 2 provinces and the decline in labor productivity in 4 provinces. The provincial minimum wage variable (UMP) significantly increases labor productivity in 17 provinces. Overall, of the 34 provinces, economic growth was most influenced by significant investment in almost all provinces except for Sumatra Island and half of Java Island. Meanwhile, labor productivity is most influenced by education, which is significant in almost all provinces except in eastern Indonesia and half of Sumatra Island.

Qualification mismatch is a significant issue in DKI Jakarta’s labor market, affecting how wages are distributed among workers. Although DKI Jakarta has the highest Provincial Minimum Wage (UMP) in Indonesia, many employees still receive wages inconsistent with their educational qualifications in terms of level and field of study. This study employs a quantitative regression approach using data from SAKERNAS August 2023 DKI Jakarta to analyze the impact of educational mismatch on labor wages. The results highlight a widespread issue of undereducation, where workers earn less than expected based on their qualifications. On the other hand, overeducation and mismatches in education do not significantly influence wage levels. Key factors such as education level, squared experience, undereducation, and gender have a significant positive effect on wages while working hours exert a significant negative impact. Interestingly, variables like technology use, internet access, and training opportunities show no substantial effect on wage determination. The study suggests that policymakers must address these mismatches by promoting gender equality and enhancing information and communication technology to improve productivity and wage outcomes across the labor force in DKI Jakarta