- Research Article
1
- 10.1080/10627197.2026.2633512
Mapping First Grader’s Numerical Development at Scale: Leveraging Cognitive Models in a Large-Scale Educational Assessment
- Mar 08, 2026
- Educational Assessment
- Philipp Sonnleitner + 2 more +2
ABSTRACT Large-scale assessments (LSAs) primarily support system-level monitoring, but their instructional diagnostic potential remains underused. Cognitive Diagnostic Models (CDMs) offer a promising avenue, though their application in LSAs poses theoretical and practical challenges. This study explores whether cognitive models used in item generation can directly inform Q-matrix construction for CDM analyses, enhancing diagnostic value in early numeracy assessment. Using data from Luxembourg’s school monitoring program (N = 2,704), we analyzed four cognitive attributes (counting, addition < 10, decomposition, addition > 10) using developmental frameworks. We compared a Single-Attribute Hierarchical Model, assuming linear progression, with a Multiple-Attribute Hierarchical Model, allowing skill interactions. Both hierarchical models reproduced expected developmental progressions, with decomposition emerging as a key threshold skill and socio-economic status showing the largest subgroup differences. Subgroup analyses revealed a smaller-than-expected impact of migration background, while math anxiety peaked at intermediate skill levels. Embedding cognitive models in LSAs can bridge system-level monitoring and instructional support.
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