peer reviewed

Energy systems around the world are undergoing immense transformations through many parallel developments. These changes across the energy landscape are introducing new security threats which require a degree of foresight to anticipate and subsequently mitigate the effects of. Therefore, through a systematic 3-round Delphi methodology, this study explores emerging threats to energy security from the political, economic, technological, socio-cultural, and environmental domains. Findings contribute with a broad picture of the emerging threat landscape in an increasingly renewable, integrated, and electrified post-modern energy system. Threats are ranked by the experts in terms of the most critical issues to non-issues, thereby offering insight for policy development. Political short-termism and tunnel vision and polarization are viewed as the most significant threats with a high degree of consensus amongst participating experts, followed by unambitious climate goals which increase environmental threats to energy security in the long-term. Based on these results, policy implications are derived throughout the reviewed domains to bolster long-term energy system resilience. Through its focus on Sweden, this study contributes with insights into the emerging context of countries at the forefront of energy transitions. • 33 threats are presented across a range of five domains. • The majority of threats stem from the political and technological domains. • The most significant threats are political. • Short-termism and tunnel vision are amongst the most critical threats. • Strong consensus across most critical threats.

Capturing energy poverty and its social and spatial inequalities is crucial for understanding the specific needs and effects of place-based energy policies. However, detailed EU cross-country comparisons are still scarce and do not account for the socio-spatial underpinnings of vulnerability to energy poverty. In this article, we construct a small-scale multidimensional energy vulnerability index based on 22 indicators spanning 16 countries from the European Union. Unlike previous EU-wide energy poverty indices, the proposed index captures the multifaceted nature of energy vulnerability using subindices on energy literacy, behavior, material conditions, and climate. We use PCA to combine theoretical and data-driven approaches for index creation. Additionally, we employ a geographically weighted approach that highlights the limitations of national trends compared with local realities. Case studies of Spain, the Netherlands, and Czechia help us map context-specific understandings of energy vulnerability. The vulnerability index presented in this paper constitutes a first attempt at measuring the small-scale socio-spatial nature of energy vulnerability in the EU. Our findings emphasize the importance of considering factors such as energy literacy, behavior, housing conditions, and health disparities in understanding energy injustice. We provide insights into the shifted energy landscapes following a series of political and economic disruptions in Europe. • Energy vulnerability is a complex, multi-dimensional issue influenced by literacy, behavior, material conditions, and affordability, exceeding traditional poverty measures. • Socio-spatial factors drive energy vulnerability, and social and geographical contexts significantly influence energy-related risks and the experience of injustice. • Spatial justice requires spatial analysis to address the unique vulnerabilities of different populations and acknowledge misrecognition of disadvantaged groups. • Energy vulnerability manifests in different ways in different spatial contexts, necessitating place-based research and policy interventions.