Abstract Numerous recent studies find that democratic institutions moderate the impact of domestic political turnover on foreign policy. As such, for many foreign policy outcomes, domestic turnover has little or no impact in democracies. I consider whether this finding holds as political polarization increases. Polarization might lead voters to place less value on compromise with other political actors, freeing leaders to advance policy interests that would be considered riskier in less polarized environments. I test this expectation using the Change in Source of Leader Support database, measures of party and affective polarization, and data on states’ voting positions in the United Nations. Across a range of statistical models, I find only weak suggestive evidence that party polarization reduces the constraining impact of democracy. The findings speak to ongoing debates over the role played by democratic institutions in conditioning how and when political competition within countries translates into foreign policy change.

Abstract This study argues that the scale of disaster relief aid provided by donor countries is significantly influenced by the extent to which natural disasters impact their supply chain trade (SCT). The core claim states that when disasters disrupt SCT, donor countries are motivated to provide substantial aid to facilitate the restoration of vital economic ties. Through a combination of quantitative analysis and comparative case study of Japan’s responses to disasters in Thailand and Vietnam, this study demonstrates that decisions to offer aid are not driven solely by humanitarian concerns but also by the strategic importance of maintaining economic flows. Furthermore, this analysis highlights the influence of corporate interest in SCT restoration on government policies, thereby explaining variations in aid patterns. This study provides a new perspective on the influence of economic interdependence on foreign aid behavior during times of crisis.

Abstract The impact of external threats on nuclear proliferation preferences has been extensively discussed in the literature, primarily through state-level analyses and qualitative case studies. This research note shifts the focus to the individual level, examining how external threats influence nuclear preferences using novel survey data from Iranian citizens collected before and during the April 2024 Iran–Israel confrontation. This real-world geopolitical crisis offers a rare opportunity to explore how exposure to a conflict between a nuclear-armed and a non-nuclear state shapes individual attitudes toward nuclear weapons. Employing a mixed-methods approach, the study integrates quantitative analysis of pre- and post-confrontation survey responses with a thematic analysis of open-ended explanations for supporting nuclear acquisition. The findings reveal a significant rise in strong support for nuclear weapons following the confrontation, driven predominantly by security concerns and the perceived need for deterrence. In contrast, other motivations, such as prestige, progress, or rights, remained relatively stable. By bridging state-level theories with micro-level evidence, this study provides novel insights into how external threats in high-stakes conflicts shape individual nuclear preferences, with important implications for both policy and scholarly research.

Abstract Existing scholarship argues that the effectiveness with which democracies craft foreign security policy depends on the level of engagement elected officials give the topic. Yet, there is little research on the factors driving individual parliamentarians’ interest in the topic beyond the notion that some issues have more resonance with the electorate than others. Introducing an original dataset of 10,180 parliamentary questions on foreign and defense matters in India, this study demonstrates that analysis of questions can have significant utility for the fields of international relations and foreign policy analysis by revealing the specific aspects of foreign security policy elected officials focus on, which, in this case, are at odds with the prevailing expectation that the mass political salience of an issue determines the level of attention given by elected officials. Moreover, factors such as electoral security, opposition party membership, representation of historically disadvantaged groups, and the geographic location of one’s constituency are shown to predict varying levels of attention by individual politicians operating in the same political environment.

Abstract How has the composition of domestic groups testifying before Congress on foreign aid changed over time? In what ways have the main themes of their speeches changed? At US congressional hearings, numerous external groups have expressed their views and positions on aid issues, with some repeatedly invited to testify to multiple committees across many years. However, there is a lack of data on this representation to show how domestic politics have influenced donor's aid decision-making process. I present new findings on the evolution of the aid topics discussed by witnesses representing NGOs, private enterprises, and research experts based on their combined total of 1,656 testimonies given to 31 committees at 325 relevant hearings from 1980 to 2020. This paper's findings shed light on the various aid demands made by different group types, offering insights into the dynamics of aid discussions in the United States over the past four decades.

This chapter provides an overview of the bureaucratic politics approach when it operates in line with foreign policy. The chapter considers an approach which looks at governments and their operations within foreign policy as the outcome of political bargaining between different government bureaucracies. The bureaucratic politics approach uses the concept of action channels to identify the bureaucratic actors who participate in government foreign policymaking. The chapter explains how different bureaucratic actors in the same government may advocate different foreign policy positions which can cause conflict in the decision-making process. The chapter finally presents the basic assumptions and key arguments of the bureaucratic politics approach while showing how it can be used in empirical Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) research.

This chapter discusses the study of analogies and metaphors as cognitive heuristics in foreign policy decision-making. It examines how analogical reasoning can help decision-makers reduce the complexity of foreign policy problems. The use of analogies and metaphors involves two subsequent cognitive processes wherein decision-makers activate analogies or metaphors from long-term memory while also mapping their knowledge on the activated analogies or metaphors onto the foreign policy decision. The chapter provides an overview of analogies and metaphors in Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA). It also considers possible future research on analogies and metaphors in foreign policy and foreign policy decision-making.

Abstract After the Cold War, election monitoring activities increased significantly, and research on the topic has risen sharply in the last ten years. These are valuable contributions, but we believe one point requires further consideration: empirically clarifying how monitoring has changed over time. This is because fraudsters have begun to shift election manipulation from the day of the election to other times in order to adapt to election monitoring. If fraudsters have evolved over time, have monitors kept pace with this evolution? Employing an original dataset of election monitoring reports published by major monitoring organizations, this study performs large-scale text analysis of these reports to show that the criteria used by monitoring teams have indeed changed over time. Specifically, although election monitoring groups have been criticized for their bias in emphasizing manipulation on election day more than other factors, we demonstrate that such bias has declined over time.

Abstract This article introduces the concept of political myth to foreign policy analysis. It explains how myth can influence the construction of foreign policy events and decisions and creates a new lens that analysts can use to study this. To do that, this article draws upon conceptual literature on political myth to explain what myth is and how it shapes discursive constructions of the world. Adopting an interpretivist approach, it then uses the concept as a lens to analyze the impact that the Blair Poodle myth has had on the construction of the US–UK “special relationship” from 2002 to 2022 and considers how this has influenced the diplomatic behavior of five UK prime ministers. It finds that the myth has been integral to negative constructions of the “special relationship” over the past twenty years and has inspired political action, including protests, resignations, and more formal diplomatic engagement with the United States.

Abstract What effects does participation in peacekeeping operations (PKO) have on the participating countries’ civil–military resource allocation? Answering this question can widen our understanding of state motivations to contribute to the United Nations PKOs by incorporating the civil–military dynamic. We argue that contributing states can substitute part of their domestic military expenditures with external resources. Governments act as brokers between domestic military interests and international sources of rent, a process which we call civil–military resource substitution through international brokerage. By doing so, governments can (i) reduce part of the bottom-up demands for increased military spending (i.e., salaries and allowances) and (ii) outsource critical resources to meet military organizational priorities (i.e., training, weapons, perks for the military elite, and so on). Using cross-national statistical analysis, we find that the UN PKO contributing states allocate fewer resources to the defense sector than the non-contributing states, and higher troop-contributing states are likely to allocate fewer resources to the defense sector than the lower-contributing or non-contributing states. The implications point to a much wider role of the UN peacekeeping missions than what is previously understood and demonstrate their impacts beyond the host countries.