- Research Article
- 10.1080/17486025.2026.2653876
Enhancing ensemble learning models with Bayesian Optimization for generalised prediction of bearing pressure of spread footings on clayey soil
- Apr 05, 2026
- Geomechanics and Geoengineering
- Dhawal Kumar + 1 more +1
ABSTRACT This study explores the predictive performance of two ensemble learning models, Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) and Gradient Boosting (GBoost), optimised using Bayesian Optimization (BO), for estimating the bearing pressure (P) of spread foundations on clayey soil. A dataset comprising plate load tests (PLTs) with 576 data points across 16 literatures was utilised for model development. Input parameters included settlement (S), undrained cohesion (Cu), plate width (B), footing embedment depth (Df), depth to groundwater table (Dw), and soil unit weight (γt). GBoost-BOA outperformed AdaBoost-BOA and standalone models, and Bayesian Optimization played a crucial role in mitigating overfitting and enhancing model generalisability by systematically selecting optimal hyperparameters (number of estimators, maximum depth, a learning rate and maximum features). The implementation was carried out using Python in a Jupyter Notebook environment. To further address overfitting, a diverse dataset was used to capture complex patterns and variations, ensuring reliable and transferable predictions across varied soil conditions. The consistency of performance metrics across training and testing datasets highlights the model’s robustness and adaptability. The training and testing of diverse dataset performances of the optimal hybrid model is benchmarked against an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model used in previous study.
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