Recent 230Th dating of fossil corals in west Luzon has provided new insights on the emergence of late Quaternary marine terraces that fringe west Luzon Island facing the Manila Trench. Apart from regional sea level changes, accumulated uplift from aseismic and seismic processes may have influenced the emergence of sea level indicators such as coral terraces and notches. Varied elevations of middle-to-late Holocene coral terraces along the west Luzon coasts reveal the differential uplift that is probably associated with the movement of local onland faults or upper-plate structures across the Manila Trench forearc basin. In Badoc Island, offshore west of Luzon mainland, we found notably young fossil corals, dated at 945.1 ± 4.6 years BP and 903.1 ± 3.9 years BP, on top of a ~5-m-high reef platform. To constrain the mechanism of emergence or emplacement of these fossil corals, we use field geomorphic data and wave inundation models to constrain an extreme wave event that affected west Luzon about 1000 years ago. Our preliminary tectonic and tsunami models show that a megathrust rupture will likely lead to subsidence of a large part of the west Luzon coast, while permanent coastal uplift is attributed to an offshore upper-plate rupture in the northern Manila Trench forearc region. The modeled source fault ruptures and tsunami lead to a maximum wave height of more than 3 m and inundation distance as far as 2 km along the coasts of western and northern Luzon. While emplacement of coral boulders by an unusually strong typhoon is also likely, modeled storm surge heights along west Luzon do not exceed 2 m even with Typhoon Haiyan characteristics. Whether tsunami or unusually strong typhoon, the occurrence of a prehistoric extreme wave event in west Luzon remains an important issue in future studies of coastal hazards in the South China Sea region.

The time scales of reconnection outflow, substorm expansion, and development of instabilities in the terrestrial magnetosphere are comparable, i.e., from several to tens of minutes, and their existence is related. In this paper, we investigate the physical relations among those phenomena with measurements during a substorm event on January 29, 2008. We present conjugate measurements from ground-based high-temporal resolution all-sky imagers and in situ THEMIS measurements. An auroral streamer (north–south aligned thin auroral layer) was formed and propagated equatorward, which usually implies an earthward propagating plasma flow in the magnetotail. At the most equatorward part of the auroral streamer, a wave-like auroral band was formed aligning in the east–west direction. The wave-like auroral structure is usually explained as a consequence of instability development. Using AM03 model, we trace the auroral structure to magnetotail and estimate a wavelength of ~0.5 RE. The scale is comparable to the drift mode wavelength determined by the in situ measurements from THEMIS-A, whose footpoint is on the wave-like auroral arc. We also present similar wave-like aurora observations from Cassini ultraviolet imaging spectrograph at Saturn and from Hubble space telescope at Jupiter, suggesting that the wave-like aurora structure is likely a result of fundamental plasma dynamics in the solar system planetary magnetospheres.

Observations of plasma and turbulence in the outer heliosphere (the distant supersonic solar wind and the subsonic solar wind beyond the heliospheric termination shock) made by the Voyager Interstellar Mission and the energetic neutral atom observations made by the IBEX spacecraft have revealed that the underlying plasma in the outer heliosphere and very local interstellar medium (VLISM) comprises distinct thermal proton and electron and suprathermal pickup ion (PUI) populations. Estimates of the appropriate collisional frequencies show that the multi-component plasma is not collisionally equilibrated in either the outer heliosphere or VLISM. Furthermore, suprathermal PUIs in these regions form a thermodynamically dominant component. We review briefly a subset of the observations that led to the realization that the solar wind–VLISM interaction region is described by a non-equilibrated multi-component plasma and summarizes the derivation of suitable plasma models that describe a PUI-mediated plasma.

The present study examines the Madden and Julian oscillation (MJO) appearing in a general circulation model (GCM) with full representation of cloud microphysics at 50 km horizontal resolution, and the MJO is compared with those of GCMs with conventional convective parameterizations. The present coarse-resolution GCM requires modifications of several parameters of cloud microphysics and an additional vertical mixing process in the lower troposphere to simulate the MJO reasonably well. The GCM with cloud microphysics only produces the relatively small-scale precipitation scattered in the tropic. The shallow convection added in the GCM helps moisten the lower troposphere and enhances low-level moisture convergence, and thus large-scale cloud clusters are generated effectively, resulting in a better simulation of MJO.

The dynamic state of the ionosphere at low latitudes is largely controlled by electric fields originating from dynamo actions by atmospheric waves propagating from below and the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction from above. These electric fields cause structuring of the ionosphere in wide ranging spatial and temporal scales that impact on space-based communication and navigation systems constituting an important segment of our technology-based day-to-day lives. The largest of the ionosphere structures, the equatorial ionization anomaly, with global maximum of plasma densities can cause propagation delays on the GNSS signals. The sunset electrodynamics is responsible for the generation of plasma bubble wide spectrum irregularities that can cause scintillation or even disruptions of satellite communication/navigation signals. Driven basically by upward propagating tides, these electric fields can suffer significant modulations from perturbation winds due to gravity waves, planetary/Kelvin waves, and non-migrating tides, as recent observational and modeling results have demonstrated. The changing state of the plasma distribution arising from these highly variable electric fields constitutes an important component of the ionospheric weather disturbances. Another, often dominating, component arises from solar disturbances when coronal mass ejection (CME) interaction with the earth’s magnetosphere results in energy transport to low latitudes in the form of storm time prompt penetration electric fields and thermospheric disturbance winds. As a result, drastic modifications can occur in the form of layer restructuring (Es-, F3 layers etc.), large total electron content (TEC) enhancements, equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) latitudinal expansion/contraction, anomalous polarization electric fields/vertical drifts, enhanced growth/suppression of plasma structuring, etc. A brief review of our current understanding of the ionospheric weather variations and the electrodynamic processes underlying them and some outstanding questions will be presented in this paper.

The majority of risk assessments of tropical cyclone storm surge and inundations are based on the generation of synthetic times series from short historical records. The accuracy of these synthetic time series in terms of the frequency of the most extreme magnitude events is difficult to test using this methodology alone. Comparisons with other approaches such as deterministically derived synthetic time-series and/or long-term natural records of these events are required. Major discrepancies often arise when such comparisons are made especially when it becomes evident that the frequency of extreme events is under-represented in the short historical records upon which the synthetic time series are based. The solution to the problem though is not as simple as replacing one type of time series with the other. As the number and the types of long-term natural records increase, it is becoming apparent that non-stationarity is an inherent feature of the natural variability of these events. This non-stationarity can be manifested as distinct periods of time, in the past, of varying event-frequency probabilities, which, at least in some cases, have climatic causes. In these cases, it may not be appropriate to use entire long-term record sets for risk assessments because certain periods of time or sections of these records may have event frequencies resulting from climate states substantially different to that expected in the future. Identifying the most appropriate past climate states and associated event behaviour may serve as better analogues for assessing future risk.

The influence of double-moment representation of warm-rain and ice hydrometeors on the numerical simulations of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) over the US Southern Great Plains has been evaluated. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to simulate the MCS with three different microphysical schemes, including the WRF single-moment 6-class (WSM6), WRF double-moment 6-class (WDM6), and Morrison double-moment (MORR) schemes. It is found that the double-moment schemes outperform the single-moment schemes in terms of the simulated structure, life cycle, cloud coverage, precipitation, and microphysical properties of the MCS. However, compared with UND-Citation observations, collected during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E), the WRF simulated ice hydrometeors with all three schemes do not agree well with the observations. Overall results from this study suggest that uncertainty in microphysical schemes could still be a productive area of future research from perspective of both model improvements and observations.

The 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake ruptured a large area of the megathrust east of NE Japan. The earthquake’s magnitude was 9.0, substantially larger than predicted. It is important to know what occurred in the source area prior to this great megathrust earthquake to improve understanding of the nucleation processes of large earthquakes and risk assessments in subduction zones. Seafloor observation data revealed the existence of two extremely large slip patches: one just updip of the mainshock hypocenter and the other 80–100 km to the north near the trench axis. For 70–90 years before 2003, M > 6 events and slips of M > c. 7 events on the megathrust occurred in the areas surrounding these two large slip patches. Seismic activity had increased since at least 2003 in the downdip portion of the source area of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake. In addition, long-term accelerated slow slip occurred in this downdip portion of the source area in the decades before the Tohoku-Oki earthquake. About 1 month before the earthquake, a slow slip event (SSE) took place at relatively shallow depths between the two large slip patches, accompanied by foreshock activity. Both the slow slip and foreshocks propagated from north to south toward the southern large slip patch. Two days before the earthquake, an M 7.3 foreshock and an associated postseismic slip began at relatively deep depths in the megathrust between the two large slip patches. In addition, a slow slip type event seems to have occurred approximately half a day after the M 7.3 foreshock near the mainshock hypocenter. This slow slip event and the foreshock activity again propagated from north to south toward the mainshock hypocenter. These long- and short-term preceding seismic and aseismic slip gradually reduced the interplate coupling, increased shear stresses at the two large slip patches (i.e., two strong asperity patches), and finally led to the rupture of the great Tohoku-Oki earthquake.

Recent evidence indicates that there is stronger nitrification in the euphotic zone than previously thought. We employ a physical-biogeochemical model to study the implications of nitrification for basin-scale distributions of nitrate, ammonium, and biological production in the equatorial Pacific. The model can faithfully reproduce observed features in nitrate distribution, with or without photoinhibition of nitrification in the euphotic zone. In addition, new production, net community production and export production are not very sensitive to the parameterization of nitrification in this model. However, simulated ammonium distribution, nitrate uptake and ammonium uptake are sensitive to this parameterization. High nitrification results in low ammonium concentration, low ammonium uptake rate, and high nitrate uptake rate in the euphotic zone. This study suggests that nitrification may be responsible for up to 40% of nitrate uptake in the equatorial Pacific. This modeling study also demonstrates large differences (in terms of the magnitude and spatial distribution) between nitrate uptake, new production and export production, reflecting decoupling of upward nutrient supply, biological uptake and downward export.

Group speed of sound in moving fluids depends on the propagation direction, which breaks acoustic reciprocity. Acoustic nonreciprocity provides a means to measure fluid motion. Using nonreciprocity, one can measure fluid velocities that may be small compared to uncertainties in sound speed. Interferometry of diffuse acoustic noise, with receivers replacing the transceivers employed in active techniques, offers a simple, low-cost means of measuring nonreciprocity. Here, the feasibility of using passive measurements of acoustic nonreciprocity to estimate current velocity in the ocean is experimentally demonstrated for the first time. Estimates of depth-averaged flow velocity are retrieved from cross-correlations of low-frequency noise recorded in the Straits of Florida by near-bottom hydrophones separated by 5 and 10 km.