Based on the lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) gene expression data from the cancer genome atlas (TCGA) database, the Stromal score, Immune score and Estimate score in tumor microenvironment (TME) were computed by the Estimation of Stromal and Immune cells in Malignant Tumor tissues using Expression data (ESTIMATE) algorithm. And gene modules significantly related to the three scores were identified by weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA). Based on the correlation coefficients and P values, 899 key genes affecting tumor microenvironment were obtained by selecting the two most correlated modules. It was suggested through Gene Ontology (GO) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) enrichment analysis that these key genes were significantly involved in immune-related or cancer-related terms. Through univariate cox regression and elastic network analysis, genes associated with prognosis of the LUAD patients were screened out and their prognostic values were further verified by the survival analysis and the University of ALabama at Birmingham CANcer (UALCAN) database. The results indicated that eight genes were significantly related to the overall survival of LUAD. Among them, six genes were found differentially expressed between tumor and control samples. And immune infiltration analysis further verified that all the six genes were significantly related to tumor purity and immune cells. Therefore, these genes were used eventually for constructing a Naive Bayes projection model of LUAD. The model was verified by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve where the area under curve (AUC) reached 92.03%, which suggested that the model could discriminate the tumor samples from the normal accurately. Our study provided an effective model for LUAD projection which improved the clinical diagnosis and cure of LUAD. The result also confirmed that the six genes in the model construction could be the potential prognostic biomarkers of LUAD.

This paper discusses our collaboration work with government officers in the health department of Seoul during the COVID-19 pandemic. First, we focus on short-term forecasting for the number of new confirmed cases and severe cases. Second, we focus on understanding how much of the current infections has been affected by external influx from neighborhood areas or internal transmission within the area. This understanding may be important because it is linked to the government policy determining non-pharmaceutical interventions. To obtain the decomposition of the effect, districts of Seoul should be considered simultaneously, and multivariate time series models are used. Third, we focus on predicting the number of new weekly confirmed cases for each district in Seoul. This detailed prediction may be important to the government policy on resource allocation. We consider an ensemble method to overcome poor prediction performance of simple models. This paper presents the methodological details and analysis results of the study.

COVID-19 has been prevalent worldwide for about 2 years now and has brought unprecedented challenges to our society. Before vaccines were available, the main disease intervention strategies were non-pharmaceutical. Starting December 2020, in Ontario, Canada, vaccines were approved for administering to vulnerable individuals and gradually expanded to all individuals above the age of 12. As the vaccine coverage reached a satisfactory level among the eligible population, normal social activities resumed and schools reopened starting September 2021. However, when schools reopen for in-person learning, children under the age of 12 are unvaccinated and are at higher risks of contracting the virus. We propose an age-stratified model based on the age and vaccine eligibility of the individuals. We fit our model to the data in Ontario, Canada and obtain a good fitting result. The results show that a relaxed between-group contact rate may trigger future epidemic waves more easily than an increased within-group contact rate. An increasing mixed contact rate of the older group quickly amplifies the daily incidence numbers for both groups whereas an increasing mixed contact rate of the younger group mainly leads to future waves in the younger group alone. The results indicate the importance of accelerating vaccine rollout for younger individuals in mitigating disease spread.

ObjectiveIn China, the burden of shigellosis is unevenly distributed, notably across various ages and geographical areas. Shigellosis temporal trends appear to be seasonal. We should clarify seasonal warnings and regional transmission patterns.MethodThis study adopted a Logistic model to assess the seasonality and a dynamics model to compare the transmission in different areas. The next-generation matrix was used to calculate the effective reproduction number (Reff) to quantify the transmissibility.ResultsIn China, the rate of shigellosis fell from 35.12 cases per 100,000 people in 2005 to 7.85 cases per 100,000 people in 2017, peaking in June and August. After simulation by the Logistic model, the ‘peak time’ is mainly concentrated from mid-June to mid-July. China's ‘early warning time’ is primarily focused on from April to May. We predict the ‘peak time’ of shigellosis is the 6.30th month and the ‘early warning time’ is 3.87th month in 2021. According to the dynamics model results, the water/food transfer pathway has been mostly blocked off. The transmissibility of different regions varies greatly, such as the mean Reff of Longde County (3.76) is higher than Xiamen City (3.15), higher than Chuxiong City (2.52), and higher than Yichang City (1.70).ConclusionThe ‘early warning time’ for shigellosis in China is from April to May every year, and it may continue to advance in the future, such as the early warning time in 2021 is in mid-March. Furthermore, we should focus on preventing and controlling the person-to-person route of shigellosis and stratified deploy prevention and control measures according to the regional transmission.

ObjectivesSerological surveys were used to infer the infection attack rate in different populations. The sensitivity of the testing assay, Abbott, drops fast over time since infection which makes the serological data difficult to interpret. In this work, we aim to solve this issue.MethodsWe collect longitudinal serological data of Abbott to construct a sensitive decay function. We use the reported COVID-19 deaths to infer the infections, and use the decay function to simulate the seroprevalence and match to the reported seroprevalence in 12 Indian cities.ResultsOur model simulated seroprevalence matchs the reported seroprevalence in most of the 12 Indian cities. We obtain reasonable infection attack rate and infection fatality rate for most of the 12 Indian cities.ConclusionsUsing both reported COVID-19 deaths data and serological survey data, we infer the infection attack rate and infection fatality rate with increased confidence.

We couple a simple model of quarantine and testing strategies for international travellers with a model for transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a partly vaccinated population. We use this model to estimate the risk of an infectious traveller causing a community outbreak under various border control strategies and different levels of vaccine coverage in the population. Results are calculated from N = 100,000 independent realisations of the stochastic model. We find that strategies that rely on home isolation are significantly higher risk than the current mandatory 14-day stay in government-managed isolation. Nevertheless, combinations of testing and home isolation can still reduce the risk of a community outbreak to around one outbreak per 100 infected travellers. We also find that, under some circumstances, using daily lateral flow tests or a combination of lateral flow tests and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests can reduce risk to a comparable or lower level than using PCR tests alone. Combined with controls on the number of travellers from countries with high prevalence of COVID-19, our results allow different options for managing the risk of COVID-19 at the border to be compared. This can be used to inform strategies for relaxing border controls in a phased way, while limiting the risk of community outbreaks as vaccine coverage increases.

This work examines a mathematical model of COVID-19 among two subgroups: low-risk and high-risk populations with two preventive measures; non-pharmaceutical interventions including wearing masks, maintaining social distance, and washing hands regularly by the low-risk group. In addition to the interventions mentioned above, high-risk individuals must take extra precaution measures, including telework, avoiding social gathering or public places, etc. to reduce the transmission. Those with underlying chronic diseases and the elderly (ages 60 and above) were classified as high-risk individuals and the rest as low-risk individuals. The parameter values used in this study were estimated using the available data from the Johns Hopkins University on COVID-19 for Brazil and South Africa. We evaluated the effective reproduction number for the two countries and observed how the various parameters affected the effective reproduction number. We also performed numerical simulations and analysis of the model. Susceptible and infectious populations for both low-risk and high-risk individuals were studied in detail. Results were displayed in both graphical and table forms to show the dynamics of each country being studied. We observed that non-pharmaceutical interventions by high-risk individuals significantly reduce infections among only high-risk individuals. In contrast, non-pharmaceutical interventions by low-risk individuals have a significant reduction in infections in both subgroups. Therefore, low-risk individuals’ preventive actions have a considerable effect on reducing infections, even among high-risk individuals.