Abstract This paper shows that the trend in spatial inequality almost entirely explains the outstanding surge in inequality in Mozambique over the past decade, as well as its decline immediately after the pandemic, in contrast to its secondary role in the earliest years. For this analysis, I use an innovative regression-based decomposition framework based on the Recentred Influence Function to estimate each area's contribution to inequality and a Blinder–Oaxaca approach to disentangle the nature of their contribution to spatial and non-spatial inequality trends. This rise in inequality was mainly due to a generalised drop in consumption experienced by households in the afflicted rural areas in the north and centre of the country, affected by natural disasters and growing conflict. This was aggravated by disproportionally larger economic growth in two urban areas: the Maputo area, which encompassed the capital, during the expansive phase, and the urban area of coal-rich Tete province during the recession that followed. In more recent years, the crisis disproportionally affected the capital and other urban areas, producing a strong mitigating effect on inequality that might be only temporary. The findings of this research have the potential to significantly inform policy decisions to address inequality in Mozambique.

Abstract I study an expansion of a South African social grant program that, for the first time, extended eligibility for unconditional cash transfers to adolescents. Between 2009 and 2012, the age eligibility for the child support grant was progressively raised, extending eligibility from children under 14 to those under 18. I use a difference-in-difference identification strategy that exploits cross birth cohort variation in adolescent grant eligibility generated by these age eligibility changes to examine the effect of unconditional cash transfers on schooling outcomes in both adolescence and young adulthood. I find that adolescent grant eligibility increases both enrollment and attainment, with the largest effects observed among rural individuals and those with the lowest baseline numerical literacy.

Abstract The initial objective in this paper was to evaluate the impact of an integrated active labour market programme (ALMP) on young males’ labour market outcomes in the Bissau-Guinean regions of Cacheu and Oio. The programme had three elements—classroom vocational training, on-the-job training and business training. The intention was to evaluate the effects of each of these elements of the programme on employment, income and the propensity to migrate. A randomised controlled trial (RCT) was implemented with 302 young men who were eligible to participate in the programme, where 151 men were allocated to the treatment group and 151 men to the control group. Only eighty-five were compliant with the programme. This meant that sample sizes for the three elements of the programme became small. The three elements of the programme were combined to provide an estimate of the overall effect of the programme. Given the problem of compliance both the Intention-To-Treat effects (ITT) and the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) were estimated, the latter using instrumental variables. The ATE for the three outcomes were large. On average, participant's incomes increased by 70,000 XOF (106 EUR) and employment probability by some sixty percentage points. After treatment, only 2.4% of the participants had made arrangements to live permanently in another country, compared to 15.9% of individuals in the control group. Whilst it did not prove possible to identify which programme was most successful the results suggest that some aspects of the ALMP did achieve their objectives. A qualification to this positive finding is that a cost–benefit analysis showed it was relatively inefficient and costly. The return on investment (ROI) was −59.9%, and the benefit–cost ratio (BCR) 0.4, whilst similar ALMPs present a weighted average BCR equal to 2 and a weighted average ROI of 37.2%.

Abstract The objective of this research is to analyse the impact of the choice of a type of school by parents on the wage of young individuals in the labour market in Togo. To do this, the multinomial endogenous switching model has been specified and estimated. The empirical analysis is based on the Harmonised Survey on Household Living Conditions (EHCVM, 2018–2019) conducted by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic and Demographic Studies in Togo (INSEED) on 16,821 young people aged between 15 and 35 years. The results reveal that the variables relating to the distances that separate the schools from the homes of the young individual's parents (distance to public school and distance to private school), male gender, age, level of secondary and higher education, the Maritime and Kara regions of residence and socio-professional category (employed father, employed mother) are the main determinants of parents' choice to enrol their children in a type of school. In addition, the results indicate that young people in the age group considered with access to private-type training have advantages in the labour market in terms of wage increases compared to young individuals with access to other types of training or who have not chosen any training. These results provide useful information for public policies in Togo. They imply that policies aimed at reducing inequalities amongst young people in the labour market should consider the type of school attended by the young people as an effective tool to achieve these objectives.

Abstract This article examines poverty dynamics in Ghana using the Ghana Socioeconomic Panel Surveys and a synthetic panel based on the Ghana Living Standards Surveys. It provides insight into the extent of poverty mobility and persistence in Ghana, and the factors that explain poverty transitions. The results show that upward mobility has been a key feature of Ghana's poverty transitions between 2006 and 2019. However, there are still high probabilities of poverty persistence and downward mobility among initially poor and non-poor households, respectively. Furthermore, notable heterogeneities exist in poverty transitions across socioeconomic groups. Poverty is more chronic in rural areas and the northern parts of Ghana compared with urban and southern regions, respectively, and among households headed by persons from opportunity-deprived backgrounds. Other characteristics such as the number of dependants, sex, occupation and level of education of the household head are important correlates of poverty persistence and downward mobility in Ghana. Hence, addressing chronic poverty requires targeted policies that foster more inclusive and sustainable growth in rural areas and northern parts of Ghana, and improved access to opportunities for people from disadvantaged backgrounds, the unemployed, and those in vulnerable employment.

Abstract All WTO members participate in the Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA), a rules-based bottom-up approach built on monitorable provisions (e.g., the publication of information, advance rulings, appeal or review of decisions, transparency and border agency cooperation) aimed at reducing time in customs. The paper draws on the OECD indicators of the state of implementation of provisions in the TFA summarised in a TFI (Trade Facilitation Index) to estimate the reduction in waiting time at customs for a large sample of 160 countries. Implementing the TFA could be a significant complement to the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)'s objectives. The paper's estimates suggest that a realistic implementation of TFA measures could reduce time in customs for imports by 3.7 days and by 1.9 days for exports. Using extraneous estimates from customs-level transactions, this translates to a reduction tariff Ad-Valorem Equivalent (AVE) in the range 3.5%–7% for imports and 8% extra growth for exports. The large differences in interests across AfCFTA participants—landlocked-coastal, resource-rich and resource-poor, large-small—suggest large gains from reducing tariffs on intra-African trade. However, tariff reductions face the zero-sum hurdle of negotiations involving rent transfers across and within countries. By avoiding rent-transfer issues, this paper suggests that taking seriously the TFA provisions would be a powerful complement to the AfCFTA's tariff-reduction agenda.

Abstract This paper examines the effects of shocks on temporal stability of risk and time preferences of rural households within a developing country context characterized by frequent droughts, chronic food insecurity, and low levels of education. Leveraging a three-wave large and diverse household panel data that elicits preferences every two years for more than 6,500 individuals from over 5,600 sample rural households in Ethiopia, we analyze the effects of droughts (self-reported) and rainfall shortfalls on household risk and time preferences. Our findings show that households become more risk-averse and impatient after experiencing drought and rainfall shocks; the change in risk preferences is more notable among households that experience recurrent droughts and multiple covariate shocks during the same period.

Abstract Rural labour markets in Africa are frequently characterised by underemployment, with farmers unable to fully deploy throughout the year one of their most important assets—their labour. Using a nine-year panel data set on 1,407 working-age adults from rural Malawi, we document changes in rural underemployment over this period and how they are associated with urbanisation. Nearby urban growth is linked to increased hours worked in casual labour (ganyu) and in non-agricultural sectors, at the expense of work on the household farm. Improved urban access is also associated with a small increase in wage labour and, at the intensive margin, with hours supplied in household enterprises. We draw lessons from these results for policies, investments and interventions to leverage urban growth for rural development.

Abstract We use a production function approach to investigate the factors that determine young adults' human capital outcomes in Madagascar and Senegal. Our study relies on unique and comparable panel data spanning over 15 years for both countries. We find that second-grade students' test scores are strong indicators of their French and math skills, as well as their educational attainment in their early twenties. Moreover, we observe that the association between second-grade skills and later-life outcomes is stronger among girls than boys, and in math test scores compared with French test scores. Our results emphasise the critical role of performing well during the early school years, as it predicts long-term outcomes, especially for vulnerable populations such as girls.