ABSTRACTAimTo test if temperature significantly influences the global biogeographic distribution of marine epifaunal bivalves via their skeletal mineralogy.LocationGlobal.TaxaMarine, epifaunal bivalves.MethodsThe skeletal mineralogy of 45,789 epifaunal bivalve occurrences from 669 species from the Ocean Biodiversity Information System (OBIS) was related to sea surface temperatures from Bio‐ORACLE. Binomial regression was used to assess the influence of temperature and seasonality on the distribution of aragonitic and calcite‐secreting bivalve occurrences, aggregated in equal‐area grid cells.ResultsThe proportion of aragonitic bivalve occurrences significantly increases with mean annual temperature in our global analysis and most marine biogeographic realms. A greater prevalence of calcite‐secreting bivalves in seasonal climates could be shown at low mean annual temperatures at the global scale but not within biogeographic realms.Main ConclusionsThe global biogeographic distribution of epifaunal bivalves is significantly influenced by water temperature via their skeletal mineralogy. The mechanism driving this pattern is best explained by the temperature modulation of the effect of Mg2+ on calcite growth. Although this Mg2+ effect predicts an advantage for aragonite secretion at higher temperatures, poleward migration in response to higher temperature extremes will expose tropical taxa to cooler temperatures in the cold season, which may impede aragonite secretion in taxa not adapted to these climates.SignificanceOur results suggest that skeletal mineralogy is likely to influence ocean warming‐induced migration patterns.

ABSTRACTAimAmphiamerican New World fishes provide a unique opportunity to explore the impact of geological processes and the formation of geographic barriers on biological diversification across both spatial and temporal dimensions. We employed phylogenetic and biogeographic methods to assess the impact of the emergence of the Isthmus of Panama on the evolutionary history of snooks.LocationEastern tropical Pacific and western Atlantic Oceans.MethodsBayesian methods were used for phylogenetic inference and divergence time estimation, incorporating the fossil record of Carangidae, Centropomidae, Istiophoriformes, Latidae and Sphyraenidae to establish a timeline using the methods of stratigraphic intervals for node calibration density specification. Biogeographic models were fitted to test the hypothesis that transisthmian vicariant events are coeval with the Isthmus closure. To estimate ancestral range probability and perform stochastic mapping, we utilised BioGeoBears and the parameters from the best‐fitting model. This allowed us to estimate the quantity and kind of biogeographical events.ResultsOur results suggest a sister relationship between Centropomidae and Sphyraenidae with a common ancestor that originated in the Upper Cretaceous (~78.51 Ma). The biogeographic model BAYAreaLIKE + j indicated speciation in sympatry and dispersal (founder effect) as the primary modes of speciation in the genus Centropomus. The dispersion in the family Centropomidae was estimated from the Tropical Eastern Pacific to the tropical western Atlantic since the Oligocene.Main ConclusionsThe alignment of divergence times with ancestral species distributions suggests a possible synchrony between the current distribution in Centropomus species and the processes of the formation of the Isthmus of Panama during the Miocene. However, the evidence of only two transisthmic pair suggests that this event was not determinant in allopatric interbasin speciation. Furthermore, recent diversification events within each basin imply an influence of post‐closure environmental conditions on the evolution of this group of fishes.

ABSTRACTAimPrimary productivity is an important mechanism influencing the species richness of animal taxa such as mammals. However, the factors that mediate the relationship between carnivore species richness, for example, and productivity are not well understood. We examined whether the relationship between carnivore species richness and primary productivity followed a hump‐shaped relationship and explored potential pathways by which productivity influences carnivore communities.LocationWestern Great Basin, USA.MethodsWe deployed a camera‐trap grid across a strong precipitation—and the corresponding productivity—gradient and estimated carnivore species richness using a novel application of a multisession community occupancy model. To quantify the relationship between carnivore species richness and productivity, we included the linear and quadratic effects of average annual precipitation as covariates on carnivore species richness. We fit additional community models linking carnivore species richness to vegetation and land cover variables to identify factors that mediate the relationship between carnivore richness and productivity.ResultsThe linear effect of precipitation on carnivore richness was positive and the quadratic effect was negative, supporting the hump‐shaped relationship where richness declines at the highest levels of productivity. Similarly, carnivore species richness followed a quadratic relationship with vegetation height along the productivity gradient. The relationship between carnivore species richness and proportion tree cover was positive, with limited evidence that open vegetation types in the surrounding landscape increased site‐level richness.Main ConclusionsIn addition to supporting the notion that primary productivity has a strong and nonlinear influence on local‐scale carnivore species richness, our results suggest that vegetation structure may be an important mediator of this relationship. Although future changes in precipitation and productivity due to climate change are uncertain, our results indicate that targeting areas of intermediate productivity and vegetation height, such as woodlands, may be key for conserving species‐rich carnivore communities along productivity gradients.

ABSTRACTAimThis study aims to describe the latitudinal pattern in plant functional groups' (PFGs') biomass and cover in Nunavik to test whether PFG attributes are better Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) predictors than climate.LocationThe study spans a 700‐km latitudinal gradient from the lichen woodland to prostrate shrub tundra vegetation zones across Nunavik, Canada.TaxonOur analysis focuses on the following PFGs: erect and prostrate shrubs, herbaceous plants, bryophytes, and lichens.MethodsBiomass and cover data of the different PFGs were sampled in 40 sites distributed across the latitudinal gradient. NDVI data were obtained through remote sensing, while climatic, permafrost depth, and surficial deposits were derived from various databases. The PFG models were built to explore relationships between average NDVI (2016–2020) at the sampling site and ecological attributes such as PFG biomass or cover but also other variables such as surficial deposits and permafrost depth. A second series of models, the climatic models, were built using only climatic variables such as seasonal temperature and precipitation.ResultsThe most parsimonious PFG model was built with the biomass data of erect shrubs, herbaceous plants, bryophytes, and lichens and included surficial deposits and permafrost depth (R2 = 0.74). This biomass model performed better than the most parsimonious cover model (cover of erect shrubs and herbaceous, surficial deposits, permafrost depth; R2 = 0.63). However, the most parsimonious climatic model (fall temperature, annual, and winter precipitations) exhibited superior predictive power compared to the ecological ones (R2 = 0.87).ConclusionsPFG models built with PFGs aboveground biomass or cover are good predictors of NDVI of the plant formations sampled along the latitudinal gradient in Nunavik. Despite the intrinsic association between NDVI and vegetation attributes, our study emphasizes the importance of the regional climate in the control of primary productivity in Arctic and subarctic ecosystems. This study provides new insights into the interpretation of NDVI data and enhances our understanding of Arctic vegetation responses under rapid climate change. Furthermore, it underscores the balance between climatic drivers and ecological dynamics in shaping fragile Arctic ecosystems.

ABSTRACTAimClimate change poses a challenge to the Azores' biodiversity, with consequences that remain unexplored. To shed light on the potential impacts of climate change, we have developed a large ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs) for species found in the coastal marine environments and examined their spatiotemporal turnover and stability.LocationThe Azorean archipelago.TaxonCoastal marine species (mammals, fish, turtles, seabirds, kelp forest and corals).MethodsSDMs were fitted a large ensemble comprising 10 machine learning algorithms and a fivefold cross‐validation resampling procedure, thus yielding a maximum number of 50 models fitted per species. These models were then utilised for projecting species distribution under different future scenarios. The projected distributions of the species were employed to assess changes in the stability of their ranges throughout the entire modelled period (2030–2100) and in their community compositions by examining changes in alpha diversity and beta diversity over 10‐year periods.ResultsWe show that under our model assumptions over 12% of the modelled units could lose suitable climate by the end of the century, with this number increasing up to 25% under a high carbon emissions scenario. Climate change refugia, which are areas of long‐term species range stability, are expected to be mainly located in the coastal areas in the northernmost part of the archipelago. A substantial loss of suitable climate is anticipated for mammals and birds, which is likely to trigger a major loss of species on the islands of Santa Maria, São Miguel, Pico and Faial. For fish, the loss of suitable climates is less pronounced. However, climate change is expected to cause a major reshuffling of the pelagic fish assemblage, with important consequences for local fisheries on each island.Main ConclusionsOur models provide insights into how climate change may alter the distribution of Azorean marine coastal species, offering important guidance for conservation and management efforts in these important North Atlantic ecosystems.

ABSTRACTAimWe aimed to assess potential climate change impacts on the distribution of a cold‐adapted terrestrial amphibian that shows strong intraspecific differentiation.LocationAlps and Dinarides.TaxonAlpine salamander (Salamandra atra).MethodsWe built SDMs for each of two major intraspecific lineages (S. a. atra, which is found throughout the Northern Alps, and S. a. prenjensis, which appears sparsely along the Dinarides) and for the entire species, using occurrence points from a carefully curated database, climate data with 1 km2 spatial resolution and eight modelling techniques. We projected climatically suitable areas to 2070 under two climate scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), using 24 general circulation models.ResultsFor S. a. atra, under RCP2.6 scenario, we detected a 3% increase in the extent of climatically suitable areas in the Alps (although with low model agreement), yet a 6% decrease under the RCP8.5 scenario. For S. a. prenjensis, we detected a decrease in the extent of climatically suitable areas in the Dinarides between 7% and 45% (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively). The SDM predictions for the entire species were most in line with those of the S. a. atra model. Although climate variables were not equally strong in predicting the climatic suitability for both lineages, the minimum temperature of the coldest month revealed an important predictor for the entire species, with clear decreases in suitability towards higher temperature.Main ConclusionsAll models reveal a considerable decrease in climate suitability throughout most of the range of S. atra, which is particularly visible in the Dinarides. We highlight the importance of considering intraspecific variation when modelling climate change impacts on geographically differentiated species whose populations vary in their climatic niche. We provide our study results (occurrence data and maps) via a web application that can be useful for guiding conservation efforts.

Abstract Aim Scutigeromorpha is a globally distributed, ancient group of centipedes with at least 400 million years of evolutionary history. We assess the biogeographic history of the order, with a particular focus on the Peninsular Indian Plate (PIP), a Gondwanan fragment. We hypothesize that continental vicariance explains the disjunct distribution of extant scutigeromorphs, that PIP scutigeromorphs are of ancient Gondwanan origins, and that East Gondwana vicariance explains the diversification of the subfamily Thereuoneminae into its Asian and Australian clades. Location Global. Taxa Centipedes, Scutigeromorpha. Methods We use a novel molecular dataset sampled across the PIP and a global sequence database representing the geographic distribution of all families and subfamilies. We employ molecular phylogenetic analyses on two mitochondrial and three nuclear markers, molecular species delimitation and ancestral range estimation to reconstruct biogeographic history. Results Ancestral scutigeromorphs were likely widely distributed across Gondwana and diverged prior to any continental vicariance. Their subsequent biogeography is shaped by continental vicariance, long‐distance dispersal and jump dispersal, indicating an ability to colonize areas far from their ancestral range. The PIP emerged as the ancestral range of Thereuoneminae, which started diversifying during the Cretaceous Period. Subsequent in‐situ diversification within the PIP and dispersals into Asia, Australia and the Pacific Islands best explained the extant distribution of Thereuoneminae, more so than East Gondwana vicariance. Main Conclusions The in‐situ diversification of PIP species and their ancient divergence suggest they represent Gondwanan relicts in a landmass whose biota is primarily dispersal‐driven. A single dispersal event from the PIP generated most of the extant diversity in Australia, another Gondwanan fragment. Furthermore, the discovery of 11 putative species from the PIP and the Andaman Islands, five times more than was known, highlights the Wallacean and Linnean shortfalls in tropical Asia.