Purpose This study proposes the application of a four dimensional framework of autonomy to a weapon swarm of high subsonic cruise missiles. Design/methodology/approach A virtual anti-access area denial (A2AD) environment involving combat operations between two opposing forces is constructed using the Advanced Framework for Simulation, Integration and Modeling (AFSIM). The effects of the dimensions of autonomy on the strike package are statistically tested using a designed experiment. Findings Analysis of the results shows that the framework for autonomy is significant at a 95% level of confidence towards all measures of effectiveness. The ability for intra-swarm communication provides the greatest benefit to both the offensive and defensive performance of the swarm, most notably with a 51.9% increase in the swarm’s capacity to detect and destroy new threats. Research limitations/implications While the results obtained are promising, this research presents representative system capabilities that must be tested with real system data before operational decisions can be made. AFSIM allows this through its modular design with plug in capability for real system performance parameters and scenario configurations/laydowns, but this is beyond the scope of this research effort. Originality/value The increasing push toward and reliance on autonomous systems, to include autonomous-human teams, requires methods for gauging the effectiveness of these systems. This research provides a case study for suitable metrics and measures of system effectiveness.

PurposeThis paper aims to examine whether changing the clustering of countries within a United States Combatant Command (COCOM) area of responsibility promotes improved forecasting of conflict.Design/methodology/approachIn this paper statistical learning methods are used to create new country clusters that are then used in a comparative analysis of model-based conflict prediction.FindingsIn this study a reorganization of the countries assigned to specific areas of responsibility are shown to provide improvements in the ability of models to predict conflict.Research limitations/implicationsThe study is based on actual historical data and is purely data driven.Practical implicationsThe study demonstrates the utility of the analytical methodology but carries not implementation recommendations.Originality/valueThis is the first study to use the statistical methods employed to not only investigate the re-clustering of countries but more importantly the impact of that change on analytical predictions.

PurposeSupply chains need to balance competing objectives; in addition to efficiency, supply chains need to be resilient to adversarial and environmental interference and robust to uncertainties in long-term demand. Significant research has been conducted designing efficient supply chains and recent research has focused on resilient supply chain design. However, the integration of resilient and robust supply chain design is less well studied. The purpose of the paper is to include resilience and robustness into supply chain design.Design/methodology/approachThe paper develops a method to include resilience and robustness into supply chain design. Using the region of West Africa, which is plagued with persisting logistical issues, the authors develop a regional risk assessment framework and then apply categorical risk to the countries of West Africa using publicly available data. A scenario reduction technique is used to focus on the highest risk scenarios for the model to be tractable. Next, the authors develop a mathematical model leveraging this framework to design a resilient supply network that minimizes cost while ensuring the network functions following a disruption. Finally, the authors examine the network's robustness to demand uncertainty via several plausible emergency scenarios.FindingsThe authors provide optimal sets of transshipment hubs with varying counts from 5 through 15 hubs. The authors determine there is no feasible solution that uses only five transshipment hubs. The authors' findings reinforce those seven transshipment hubs – the solution currently employed in West Africa – is the cheapest architecture to achieve resilience and robustness. Additionally, for each set of feasibility transshipment hubs, the authors provide connections between hubs and demand spokes.Originality/valueWhile, at the time of this research, three other manuscripts incorporated both resilience and robustness of the authors' research unique solved the problem as a network flow instead of as a set covering problem. Additionally, the authors establish a novel risk framework to guide the required amount of redundancy, and finally the out research proposes a scenario reduction heuristic to allow tractable exploration of 512 possible demand scenarios.

Purpose The US Government is challenged to maintain pace as the world’s de facto provider of space object cataloging data. Augmenting capabilities with nontraditional sensors present an expeditious and low-cost improvement. However, the large tradespace and unexplored system of systems performance requirements pose a challenge to successful capitalization. This paper aims to better define and assess the utility of augmentation via a multi-disiplinary study. Design/methodology/approach Hypothetical telescope architectures are modeled and simulated on two separate days, then evaluated against performance measures and constraints using multi-objective optimization in a heuristic algorithm. Decision analysis and Pareto optimality identifies a set of high-performing architectures while preserving decision-maker design flexibility. Findings Capacity, coverage and maximum time unobserved are recommended as key performance measures. A total of 187 out of 1017 architectures were identified as top performers. A total of 29% of the sensors considered are found in over 80% of the top architectures. Additional considerations further reduce the tradespace to 19 best choices which collect an average of 49–51 observations per space object with a 595–630 min average maximum time unobserved, providing redundant coverage of the Geosynchronous Orbit belt. This represents a three-fold increase in capacity and coverage and a 2 h (16%) decrease in the maximum time unobserved compared to the baseline government-only architecture as-modeled. Originality/value This study validates the utility of an augmented network concept using a physics-based model and modern analytical techniques. It objectively responds to policy mandating cataloging improvements without relying solely on expert-derived point solutions.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine an issue of critical importance to America’s national security. The Civil Reserve Air Fleet (CRAF) is a public/private partnership between US air carriers and the Department of Defense (DOD) for the provision of contingency airlift services to the military in times of national need. Formed in 1951, the CRAF has only been activated twice, but it has continued to be a source of emergency air transportation should the nation require resources beyond those available from the US Air Force. Sweeping changes occurring in global trade, commercial aviation, national defense policy and foreign relations suggest that changes will be needed to maintain the CRAF as a strategic defense transportation resource. Design/methodology/approach This paper examines the long-standing national policy of relying on commercial interests to provide contingency transportation to the DOD in wartime. The CRAF will be singled out for closer examination in light of environmental changes occurring in the airline industry, international trade and global threats to the nation. The purpose of this analysis is to then assess the partnership’s ability to remain relevant in an uncertain future. Findings First, commercial cargo aircraft are downsizing thereby becoming less useful to the DOD. Second, there is no new wide-body military airlifter on the horizon. Third, threats from hostile nations are becoming more indirect and subtle, requiring planners to think “outside the box” when assessing the need for strategic airlift over the next 20-50 years. Originality/value The CRAF has not fundamentally changed since its inception in 1951. The time has come to reexamine the partnership to ensure that it remains America’s emergency lifeline.

Purpose There appears to be no empirical-based method in the literature for estimating if an engineering change proposal (ECP) will occur or the dollar amount incurred. This paper aims to present an empirically based approach to address this shortfall. Design/methodology/approach Using the cost assessment data enterprise database, 533 contracts were randomly selected via a stratified sampling plan to build two regression models: one to predict the likelihood of a contract experiencing an ECP and the other to determine the expected median per cent increase in baseline contract cost if an ECP was likely. Both models adopted a stepwise approach. A validation set was placed aside prior to any model building. Findings Not every contract incurs an ECP; approximately 80 per cent of the contracts in the database did not have an ECP. The likelihood of an ECP and the additional amount incurred appears to be statistically independent of acquisition phase, branch of service, commodity, contract type or any other factor except for the basic contract amount and the number of contract line item numbers; both of these later variables equally affected the contract percentage increase because of an ECP. The combined model overall bested current anecdotal approaches to ECP withhold. Originality/value This paper both serves as a published reference point for ECP withholds in the archival forum and presents an empirically based method for determining per cent ECP withhold to use.

PurposeThe military of today depends on the availability and readiness of high-technology weapon systems. As the military often has to focus on core tasks (the usage of systems), logistics and support tasks are outsourced to industry, which means that industrial suppliers gain importance for making weapon systems available and mission ready. However, companies are profit-maximizing and invest their best resources in the most promising business areas, which might be clients other than the (domestic) military customer. This raises the question of how the military can ensure that the defense industry provides the best performance: preferential treatment for the military. The purpose of this study is to investigate preferential treatment in the specific context of defense.Design/methodology/approachThis paper reports on the examination of factors influencing preferential treatment for the military. The analysis uses structural equation modeling and data from a sample of German defense suppliers.FindingsThe results show that the perceived customer attractiveness has a strong effect on preferential customer treatment. Attractiveness is influenced by trust, commitment and a comparison with other customers.Research limitations/implicationsThere are several implications for defense theory and practice, including the need for further consideration of relational in contrast to transactional practices in military–industrial supply collaboration, as these seem highly relevant for getting the best resources for producing and maintaining weapon systems. In addition, increasing customer attractiveness, in particular if the military lacks a domestic defense industry base, is proposed.Originality/valueThe findings are based on a focus sample of only defense suppliers. This paper transfers the industrial discussion about the buyer–supplier relationships and preferential customer treatment to the defense logistics research context.