An adaptive multi-agent model for water allocation under scarcity: application of bankruptcy methods
ABSTRACT This paper presents a novel multi-agent framework for adaptive, fair water allocation under varying hydrological conditions (severe drought, dry, normal, and wet). The framework aims to (1) optimize reservoir water allocation to maximize net benefits, (2) enhance fairness among users, and (3) minimize scarcity-driven conflicts. Precipitation forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are bias-corrected and fed into the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) to simulate long-term reservoir inflows. A probability density function (PDF) of stored water volume, derived from a long-term optimization model, constrains the adaptive reservoir operation (ARO) model. The ARO comprises two sub-models: one allocates monthly reservoir water mid-term, while the other distributes water to individual agents. For dry/normal/wet conditions, a penalty-based approach guides allocation; severe droughts employ bankruptcy methods, including classical (PRO, CEA, CEL, PIN) and novel strategies (FPS, PPS, PIS). The methodology is applied to Iran's Zarrinehrud Basin, critical for Lake Urmia. Key findings: (1) Novel strategies FPS ($6.55M) and PPS ($6.53M) outperform traditional methods in profitability; (2) PRO achieves the highest fairness but lower profit ($4.76M), highlighting equity-efficiency trade-offs; (3) FPS/PPS boost profitability while redistributing gains to vulnerable agents. The framework balances efficiency, fairness, and conflict mitigation in water-scarce regions.
Read more