Estimation of Conditional Expected Shortfall Based on Copula Function and ARMA-GARCH Time Series Models with Generalized Error Distribution
Results and DiscussionIn this paper, we evaluate the CoVaR for BB1, BB6, BB7, and BB8 Copula functions and, based on this, estimate the CoES in ARMA-GARCH models with GED errors.Finally, these two criteria are calculated with the returns of Bank Tejarat and Bank Mellat. ConclusionIn this paper, essential methods for examining systemic risk, namely Conditional Value at Risk and Conditional Expected Shortfall, were studied based on Archimedean Copula functions BB1, BB6, BB7, and BB8 and ARMA-GARCH time series models with Generalized Error Distribution.Finally, this criterion was calculated for Bank Mellat if Bank Tejarat is in a critical situation.Finally, this criterion was calculated for Bank Mellat, assuming Bank Tejarat is in a crucial situation.To examine the dependence structure between these two returns and to predict Bank Mellat's future volatility, different Copula functions were used, and GARCH and ARMA-GARCH time series models were employed.The results indicated that the copula BB8 and the time series AR(1) -GARCH(1, 1) provide the best modeling.
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