Planning requires anticipating the environmental contingencies that we will encounter and also our own future behaviour in those scenarios. The evolutionary origins of such prospective decision simulations have, however, been difficult to investigate. Moreover, in humans, these metacognitive processes are associated with a distinctively human brain region in the anterior lateral prefrontal cortex. Here we demonstrate these capacities in macaques and their neural bases in two complementary patterns of brain activity in different ventrolateral prefrontal areas: areas 45a and 47/12o. We also examine the impact of ultrasonic disruption of each area. We compare behavioural, brain activity and disruption patterns in humans and macaques. Finally, comparative connectional analysis revealed similarities between the conjunction of the two circuits associated with areas 45a and 47/12o in macaques and the human anterior lateral prefrontal area. In combination, the results suggest behavioural and anatomical origins of metacognitive processes that have become especially sophisticated in humans.

Expanded unemployment insurance (UI) during the COVID-19 pandemic protected livelihoods, but it may also have saved lives by incentivizing physical-distancing behaviour. We estimate UI effects on weekly COVID-19 outcomes using regression-adjusted difference-in-differences and exploiting cross-state variation in the USA during summer 2021. We find that all outcomes more than tripled in states discontinuing pandemic UI programmes: weekly cases rose 0.18 percentage points (95% confidence interval, 0.07-0.28), hospitalizations rose by 0.18 per 1,000 (0.09-0.27), COVID-19 deaths rose by 2.72 per 100,000 (1.23-4.21) and excess deaths rose by 4.60 per 100,000 (2.82-6.39). The results show no pre-trends, pass 'placebo' tests and are robust to alternative sets of control variables, inverse-probability weighting, and heterogeneity in policies, behaviours and political leanings. Supporting a causal interpretation, UI claims fell and re-employment rose in discontinuer states, COVID-19 worsened where re-employment rose more, the COVID-19 death share of under-65-year-olds grew and illness-related lost work time increased. Additional hospitalization costs exceeded UI outlays. COVID-19 deaths rose by 25,100 (11,400-38,900) and excess deaths by 42,600 (26,100-59,100): deaths without benefits.