Abstract. We combine high-resolution in situ data (acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP), Scanfish, and surface drifters) and remote sensing to investigate the physical characteristics of a major filament observed in the Benguela upwelling region. The 30–50 km wide and about 400 km long filament persisted for at least 40 d. Mixed-layer depths were less than 40 m in the filament and over 60 m outside of it. Observations of the Rossby number Ro from the various platforms provide the spatial distribution of Ro for different resolutions. Remote sensing focuses on geostrophic motions of the region related to the mesoscale eddies that drive the filament formation and thereby reveals |Ro|<0.1. Ship-based measurements in the surface mixed layer reveal 0.5<|Ro|<1, indicating the presence of unbalanced, ageostrophic motions. Time series of Ro from triplets of surface drifters trapped within the filament confirm these relatively large Ro values and show a high variability along the filament. A scale-dependent analysis of Ro, which relies on the second-order velocity structure function, was applied to the latter drifter group and to another drifter group released in the upwelling zone. The two releases explored the area nearly distinctly and simultaneously and reveal that at small scales (<15 km) Ro values are twice as large in the filament in comparison to its environment with Ro>1 for scales smaller than ∼500 m. This suggests that filaments are hotspots of ageostrophic dynamics, pointing to the presence of a forward energy cascade. The different dynamics indicated by our Ro analysis are confirmed by horizontal kinetic energy wavenumber spectra, which exhibit a power law k−α with α∼5/3 for wavelengths 2π/k smaller than a transition scale of 15 km, supporting significant submesoscale energy at scales smaller than the first baroclinic Rossby radius (Ro1∼30 km). The detected transition scale is smaller than those found in regions with less mesoscale eddy energy, consistent with previous studies. We found evidence for the processes which drive the energy transfer to turbulent scales. Positive Rossby numbers 𝒪(1) associated with cyclonic motion inhibit the occurrence of positive Ertel potential vorticity (EPV) and stabilize the water column. However, where the baroclinic component of EPV dominates, submesoscale instability analysis suggests that mostly gravitational instabilities occur and that symmetric instabilities may be important at the filament edges.

Abstract. Extreme sea levels may cause damage and the disruption of activities in coastal areas. Thus, predicting extreme sea levels is essential for coastal management. Statistical inference of robust return level estimates critically depends on the length and quality of the observed time series. Here, we compare two different methods for extending a very short (∼ 10-year) time series of tide gauge measurements using a longer time series from a neighbouring tide gauge: linear regression and random forest machine learning. Both methods are applied to stations located in the Kattegat Basin between Denmark and Sweden. Reasonable results are obtained using both techniques, with the machine learning method providing a better reconstruction of the observed extremes. By generating a set of stochastic time series reflecting uncertainty estimates from the machine learning model and subsequently estimating the corresponding return levels using extreme value theory, the spread in the return levels is found to agree with results derived by more physically based methods.

Abstract. Against the background of wind-forcing change along with Arctic sea ice retreat, the mesoscale processes undergoing distinct variation in the Beaufort Gyre (BG) region are increasingly important to oceanic transport and energy cascades, and these changes subsequently put oceanic stratification into a new state. Here, the varying number and strength of eddies in the central Canada Basin (CB) and Chukchi–Beaufort continental slope are obtained based on mooring observations (2003–2018), altimetry measurements (1993–2019), and reanalysis data (1980–2020). In this paper, the variability in the BG halocline, representing the adjustment of stratification in the upper layer, is shown in order to analyse how variability occurs under changing mesoscale processes. We find that over almost the last 2 decades the halocline depth has deepened by ∼ 40 m in the south of the central gyre, while that in the north has deepened by ∼ 70 m according to multiple datasets. Surrounding the central gyre, the asymmetry of the halocline, with much steeper and deeper isopycnals over the southern continental slope, reduced after 2014. In the meantime, eddy activities in the upper layer from the southern margin of the BG to the abyssal plain have been enhanced. Moreover, the convergence of the eddy lateral flux has increased as the halocline structures on either side, which is at least 120 km from the central gyre, have reached a nearly identical and stable regime. It has been clarified that long-term dynamic eddy modulation through eddy fluxes, facilitating the freshwater redistribution, affects the meridional asymmetry of the BG halocline. Our results provide a better understanding of the eddy modulation processes and their influence on the halocline structure.

Abstract. A thermodynamic potential is derived for seawater as a function of Conservative Temperature, Absolute Salinity and pressure. From this thermodynamic potential, all the equilibrium thermodynamic properties of seawater can be found, just as all these thermodynamic properties can be found from the TEOS-10 (the International Thermodynamic Equation of Seawater – 2010; IOC et al., 2010) Gibbs function (which is a function of in situ temperature, Absolute Salinity, and pressure). Present oceanographic practice in the Gibbs SeaWater Oceanographic Toolbox uses a polynomial expression for specific volume (and enthalpy) in terms of Conservative Temperature (as well as of Absolute Salinity and pressure), whereas the relationship between in situ temperature and Conservative Temperature is based on the Gibbs function. This mixed practice introduces (numerically small) inconsistencies and superfluous conversions between variables. The proposed thermodynamic potential of seawater, being expressed as an explicit function of Conservative Temperature, overcomes these small numerical inconsistencies, and in addition, the new approach allows for greater computational efficiency in the evaluation of sea surface temperature from Conservative Temperature. It is also shown that when using Conservative Temperature, the thermodynamic information in enthalpy is independent of that contained in entropy. This contrasts with the cases where either in situ temperature or potential temperature is used. In these cases, a single thermodynamic potential serves the important purpose of avoiding having to impose a separate consistency requirement between the functional forms of enthalpy and entropy.

Abstract. River plumes have a direct influence on coastal environments, impacting coastal planktonic and benthic communities, including fishery resources. In general, the main drivers of river plume dynamics are the river discharge and the alongshore wind stress, whereas the tides and topography play a secondary role. In central Chile, rivers flowing into the eastern Pacific have a relatively short path on land, with a high slope and a mixed snow–rain regime. This study aims to understand the interannual variability in the plumes of the Maipo and Rapel rivers in the coastal/shelf area off central Chile and their influence on local ocean dynamics. We used the Coastal and Regional Ocean Community (CROCO) model, with 1 km horizontal resolution and 20 sigma levels, to simulate the ocean dynamics for the period 2003–2011. The results show that the plume's area coverage and coastal ocean salinity are strongly correlated with the river discharges. The predominant northeastward winds control the plumes' orientation toward the northwest. However, episodes of southeastward winds in winter can reverse the plumes' direction, promoting their attachment to the coast and southward transport. Results also show a salification trend linked to the severe droughts hitting central Chile during the studied period. This salification determines a change in local dynamics which could be more frequent in future scenarios of climate change with a significant lack of rain and river discharges along central Chile.

Abstract. A geostrophic eddy energy dissipation rate due to the interaction of the large-scale wind field and mesoscale ocean currents, or relative wind stress, is derived here for use in eddy energy budget-based eddy parameterisations. We begin this work by analytically deriving a relative wind stress damping term and a baroclinic geostrophic eddy energy equation. The time evolution of this analytical eddy energy in response to relative wind stress damping is compared directly with a baroclinic eddy in a general circulation model for both anticyclones and cyclones. The dissipation of eddy energy is comparable between each model and eddy type, although the numerical model diverges from the analytical model at around day 150, likely due to the presence of non-linear baroclinic processes. A constrained dissipation rate due to relative wind stress is then proposed using terms from the analytical eddy energy budget. This dissipation rate depends on the potential energy of the eddy thermocline displacement, which also depends on eddy length scale. Using an array of ocean datasets, and computing two forms for the eddy length scale, a range of values for the dissipation rate are presented. The analytical dissipation rate is found to vary from 0.25 to 4 times that of a constant dissipation rate employed in previous studies. The dissipation rates are generally enhanced in the Southern Ocean but smaller in the western boundaries. This proposed dissipation rate offers a tool to parameterise the damping of total eddy energy in coarse resolution global climate models and may have implications for a wide range of climate processes.

Abstract. The present work proposes a prediction model of significant wave height (SWH) and average wave period (APD) based on variational mode decomposition (VMD), temporal convolutional networks (TCNs), and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. The wave sequence features were obtained using VMD technology based on the wave data from the National Data Buoy Center. Then the SWH and APD prediction models were established using TCNs, LSTM, and Bayesian hyperparameter optimization. The VMD–TCN–LSTM model was compared with the VMD–LSTM (without TCN cells) and LSTM (without VMD and TCN cells) models. The VMD–TCN–LSTM model has significant superiority and shows robustness and generality in different buoy prediction experiments. In the 3 h wave forecasts, VMD primarily improved the model performance, while the TCN had less of an influence. In the 12, 24, and 48 h wave forecasts, both VMD and TCNs improved the model performance. The contribution of the TCN to the improvement of the prediction result determination coefficient gradually increased as the forecasting length increased. In the 48 h SWH forecasts, the VMD and TCN improved the determination coefficient by 132.5 % and 36.8 %, respectively. In the 48 h APD forecasts, the VMD and TCN improved the determination coefficient by 119.7 % and 40.9 %, respectively.

Abstract. Today, monitoring the evolution of sea level in coastal areas is of importance, since almost 11 % of the world's population lives in low-lying areas. Reducing uncertainties in sea level estimates requires a better understanding of both altimetry measurements and local sea level dynamics. In New Caledonia, the Nouméa lagoon is an example of this challenge, as altimetry, coastal tide gauge, and vertical land motions from global navigation satellite systems (GNSSs) do not provide consistent information. The GEOCEAN-NC 2019 field campaign addresses this issue with deployments of in situ instruments in the lagoon (GNSS buoy, pressure gauge, etc.), with a particular focus on the crossover of one Jason-series track and two Sentinel-3A missions tracks. In this study, we propose a method to virtually transfer the Nouméa tide gauge at the altimetry crossover point, using in situ data from the field campaign. Following the philosophy of calibration and validation (Cal/Val) studies, we derive absolute altimeter bias time series over the entire Jason and Sentinel-3A periods. Overall, our estimated altimeter mean biases are slightly larger by 1–2 cm compared to Corsica and Bass Strait results, with inter-mission biases in line with those of Bass Strait site. Uncertainties still remain regarding the determination of our vertical datum, only constrained by the three days of the GNSS buoy deployment. With our method, we are able to re-analyse about 20 years of altimetry observations and derive a linear trend of −0.2 ± 0.1 mm yr−1 over the bias time series. Compared to previous studies, we do not find any significant uplift in the area, which is more consistent with the observations of inland permanent GNSS stations. These results support the idea of developing Cal/Val activities in the lagoon, which is already the subject of several experiments for the scientific calibration phase of the SWOT wide-swath altimetry mission.

Abstract. In sequential estimation methods often used in oceanic and general climate calculations of the state and of forecasts, observations act mathematically and statistically as source or sink terms in conservation equations for heat, salt, mass, and momentum. These artificial terms obscure the inference of the system's variability or secular changes. Furthermore, for the purposes of calculating changes in important functions of state variables such as total mass and energy or volumetric current transports, results of both filter and smoother-based estimates are sensitive to misrepresentation of a large variety of parameters, including initial conditions, prior uncertainty covariances, and systematic and random errors in observations. Here, toy models of a coupled mass–spring oscillator system and of a barotropic Rossby wave system are used to demonstrate many of the issues that arise from such misrepresentations. Results from Kalman filter estimates and those from finite interval smoothing are analyzed. In the filter (and prediction) problem, entry of data leads to violation of conservation and other invariant rules. A finite interval smoothing method restores the conservation rules, but uncertainties in all such estimation results remain. Convincing trend and other time-dependent determinations in “reanalysis-like” estimates require a full understanding of models, observations, and underlying error structures. Application of smoother-type methods that are designed for optimal reconstruction purposes alleviate some of the issues.

Abstract. The Weddell Gyre plays an important role in the global climate system by supplying heat to underneath the ice shelves and in the formation of deep and bottom water masses, which have been subject to widespread warming over past decades. In this study, we investigate the re-distribution of heat throughout the Weddell Gyre by diagnosing the terms of the heat conservation equation for a 1000 m thick layer of water encompassing the core of Warm Deep Water. The spatial distributions of the different advective and diffusive terms in terms of heat tendencies are estimated using gridded climatologies of temperature and velocity, obtained from Argo floats in the Weddell Gyre from 2002 to 2016. While the results are somewhat noisy on the grid scale and the representation of the effects of eddy mixing is highly uncertain due to the need to parameterise them by means of turbulent diffusion, the heat budget (i.e. the sum of all terms) closes (within the uncertainty range) when integrated over the open inflow region in the southern limb, whereas the interior circulation cell remains unbalanced. There is an overall balance in the southern limb between the mean horizontal advection and horizontal turbulent diffusion of heat, whereas the vertical terms contribute comparatively little to the heat budget throughout the Weddell Gyre. Heat convergence due to mean horizontal advection balances with divergence due to horizontal turbulent diffusion in the open southern limb of the Weddell Gyre. In contrast, heat divergence due to mean horizontal advection is much weaker than convergence due to horizontal turbulent diffusion in the interior circulation cell of the Weddell Gyre, due to large values in the latter along the northern boundary due to large meridional temperature gradients. Heat is advected into the Weddell Gyre along the southern limb, some of which is turbulently diffused northwards into the interior circulation cell, while some is likely turbulently diffused southwards towards the shelf seas. This suggests that horizontal turbulent diffusion plays a role in transporting heat both towards the gyre interior where upwelling occurs and towards the ice shelves. Horizontal turbulent diffusion is also a mechanism by which heat can be transported into the Weddell Gyre across the open northern boundary. Temporal deviations from the mean terms are not included due to study limitations. In order to appreciate the role of transient eddying processes, a continued effort to increase the spatial and temporal coverage of observations in the eastern Weddell Sea is required.