ABSTRACT This study establishes a model and identifies the key determinants of international air travel demand. It is deployed using data from 11 key source countries to Singapore for the period 1989–2019. The results show the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and the population size of the source country, bilateral trade between the origin and destination countries, and crude oil prices are the significant factors in explaining international air travel demand. They all positively impact air travel demand, except for crude oil prices, which have negative effects. Air travel to Singapore is still a luxury item, like in most countries worldwide. The Asian financial crisis of 1998 and the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic of 2003 were shocks that negatively affected the demand for international air travel to Singapore. In addition, the influencing factors play different roles in explaining international travel demand to Singapore across source market regions.

Abstract The smooth operation of the GVCs division system highly depends on the stable relations between countries and the disharmonious and unstable international political relations will adversely damage the international economic and trade relations. The development of international trade has shifted from economic logic to political logic. From the perspective of value‐added exports, this paper empirically examines the impact of bilateral political relations on the real trade gains between countries, using the United Nations General Assembly Voting Data, World Input–Output Data and Penn World Table from 2000 to 2014. The results show that: (i) the improvement of bilateral political relations can significantly increase a country's value‐added exports by reducing the “cost effect” and enhancing the “industrial linkage effect.” After considering the structure of value‐added exports, index replacement, model estimation method, dimension variation and the endogeneity, this result is still robust. (ii) Heterogeneity analysis shows that the value‐added exports of countries with weak economic power, countries with strong institution, industries with comparative advantage, and downstream industries are more sensitive to bilateral political relations. This study deeply reveals the correlation between political factors and global economic development and provides a strong reference for promoting the recovery of the current global economy and the sustainable development of GVCs.

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Abstract The paper aims to examine the ability of a global fear index (GFI) based on the COVID‐19 pandemic and government policy responses as a measure of uncertainty in predicting eight Indian rupee‐based exchange rate return series: the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar, the Swiss franc, the US dollar, the euro, the British pound sterling, the New Zealand dollar, and the Japanese yen. The predictability of the daily Indian rupee‐based exchange rate return series is tested using the recently developed wild bootstrap likelihood ratio test of Kim and Shamsuddin for the period 2 October 2020 to 8 March 2021. Both symmetric and asymmetric tests revealed GFI as an insignificant determinant of the Indian rupee‐based exchange rate return series. However, government policy responses are a significant determinant of the rupee–dollar exchange rate return series.