- Research Article
- 10.3390/rs18060932
Climate Variability and Groundwater Levels: A Correlation and Causation Analysis
- Mar 19, 2026
- Remote Sensing
- Fabian J Zowam + 1 more +1
Short-term fluctuations in climate patterns (climate variability) often indicate long-term climate change (CC) trends, which are a global threat to our planet today. CC is speeding up the terrestrial water cycle and potentially affecting groundwater availability, a major component of that cycle. Considering that terrestrial water cycle intensity (WCI) and groundwater level (GWL) are indicators of CC and groundwater availability, respectively, this study explored the dynamic relationship between WCI and GWL anomalies (WCIAs and GWLAs, respectively) in an arid region, based on an innovative approach to statistical correlation and causation analysis. Pearson correlation (r) assessed the strength and direction of a contemporaneous linear relationship between both variables; a cross-correlation function (CCF) determined the dynamic nature of those relationships considering monthly lags up to a predetermined maximum of 12 months; and Granger causality (GC) tests assessed the statistical significance of past values of the lead variable in enhancing the prediction of future values of the lagged variable. A contemporaneous linear relationship between both variables was mostly absent but appeared at various lags. At these lags, the strongest correlations were dominantly negative, with GWLA leading WCIA, as supported by the GC tests. This trend suggests that the intensification of the water cycle reflects a decline in past groundwater levels, necessitating immediate water management actions in the affected areas.
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