Armenia and Azerbaijan have come closer than ever to peace, initialling an accord in Washington under the United States’ mediation. Yet demands over Armenia’s constitution and Russia’s exclusion from the deal may still derail the progress.

Ethiopia’s completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam marks a milestone in its drive for energy independence and industrial growth. Yet the project continues to shape – and strain – the political and diplomatic balance along the Nile.

The Northwood Declaration of July 2025 marks the most far-reaching step yet in UK–France nuclear cooperation, committing both states to coordinating nuclear policy, capabilities and operations.

The May 2025 conflict served to increase public support for the armed forces and accelerate a pragmatic rapprochement with the United States, even as it has exacerbated Pakistan’s economic vulnerabilities. While recent India–Pakistan conflicts have escalated and remained under control, each additional conflict will provide opportunities to test new forms of escalation between the nuclear powers.

New tariffs announced by the Trump administration and threats of retaliation by the European Union have set the stage for an all-out economic clash. While a negotiated solution that would reduce some of the initially proposed tariffs remains possible, it is clear that the transatlantic economic relationship is in a new era.

The Sudan Armed Forces have made dramatic gains since September, with aligned factions achieving a string of victories against the Rapid Support Forces and, in January, breaking the siege of their military headquarters in Khartoum. The Sudan conflict has, in many ways, become a proxy war. The scale of the military equipment that the warring parties require to keep fighting means that events in the coming year may hinge upon the willingness of foreign actors to keep expending more resources.

The Emirati government appears to have three main goals in increasing its level of security assistance to partner countries in Africa: fighting Islamist and extremist groups, securing and preserving a regional economic advantage and, to a lesser extent, preserving its interests vis-à-vis geopolitical rivals. While arms transfers had until recent years consisted predominantly of armoured vehicles and second-hand equipment, the country has expanded its domestic production capacity for uninhabited aerial vehicles and loitering munitions; these could potentially be transferred in greater numbers to African partners, altering existing equilibriums.

While the Israeli government has succeeded in hobbling Hamas and scattering its forces, it has not formulated a coherent strategy for a post-war Gaza. This will exacerbate tensions with the United States and other international partners.

The rapid advancement and proliferation of gene-editing technology, made possible in part by artificial intelligence, has raised ethical debates and security concerns, given the risk of misuse by malicious actors or national bioweapons programmes.

The framework’s first element, focusing on supply-chain security, came into force on 24 February. The 14 participant countries designed the framework to increase mutual economic integration, but it has faced setbacks, including Washington’s abandonment in late 2023 of an ambitious trade-related pillar. Nonetheless, the remaining elements of the deal are likely to be finalised and adopted later in 2024.