The article is devoted to the issues of mutual influence of financial inclusion and financial stability. The problem of finding the optimal combination of financial inclusion and financial stability policies is very relevant for Russia, given the significant influx of private investors into the securities market, which the regulator is trying to limit with high entry barriers for these investors. Based on the conclusion about the duality of the mutual influence of inclusion and stability existing in the literature, the authors developed a theoretical model of the influence of the level of inclusion on the risks affecting stability, showing that there is such a share of private investors in the volume of trading in the securities market, at which the risks of illiquidity and a decrease in profitability are minimal in their combination. Based on this model, recommendations for improving the regulation of the Russian securities market have been formulated.

The article examines the reproduction of specialists in information and communication technology (ICT) at all stages of this process: output, utilization of workforce capacity, and retirement from the workforce. Each stage is considered in the dynamics from the 2010s to 2020s. Based on the results, a model simulating the reproductive cycle of ICT specialists is developed. The calculated and actual values for the number of ICT specialists prove to be close, which confirms the correctness of the constructed model and the data used.

This article considers a possibility of increasing the significance and validity of electric energy price forecasts, a major reference point for making investment decisions and one of the main indicators of national energy security. The expedience of including in the stage-by-stage forecast studies of energy development the estimation of threshold (maximal allowed) electric energy cost for both its producers and users, is validated. A methodical approach and an economic and mathematical model for this estimation are proposed. The acceptable cost of own generation by different groups of users is chosen as a benchmark for estimating thresholds in the area of energy utilization. The share of this so-called distributed generation in the total electric energy production is proposed for inclusion in the number of energy security indicators. Experimental calculation results are provided shedding light on differences in cost thresholds of electric energy generation in integrated power systems and on potential influences of scenario conditions on the economic efficiency and cost of distributed generation.

The article presents a methodological toolset for assessing import dependence and import substitution of economic systems at various hierarchical levels. A wide range of methods for quantitative assessment of import substitution in economic systems is proposed. It includes the use of the Balassa index to assess the level of import dependence for goods in the country as a whole and by sectors of the national economy; assessing the degree of import dependence in various sectors of industry using the ratio of imports to domestic consumption; calculating the coefficient of import coverage by exports to assess the level of foreign trade security, as well as the coefficient of import coverage by production to assess the level of economic security provided by domestic production. A new author-developed method has been devised for obtaining the dynamic coefficient of import substitution, which is calculated based on changes in the volume of production and import. This coefficient allows for identifying various economic policy scenarios and dividing them into eight zones depending on the coefficient values. Among them, the most favorable scenario of import saving should be identified where a decrease in imports is accompanied by a more significant increase in the level of production. Verification of the proposed tools has shown that the authors’ results can be used in the quantitative assessment of import substitution for economic systems at various hierarchical levels.

The article examines the concepts of economic power and multipolarity, highlighting the category of “emerging countries” with actively restructuring, competing, and growing economies. The use of forecast estimates by the OECD, the United Nations, domestic sources, and additional calculations made it possible for us to analyze the trajectories of economic development in Russia, the United States, and a number of other countries over 1960–2060. A graphical representation of development trajectories in the form of “sprout” diagrams is proposed, which show the positions of countries in terms of GDP and the impact of the working-age population size on their development trajectories. The characteristics of efficiency and productivity determined by the ratio of GDP to the working-age population size are compared. Quantitative estimates for the size of this population group are presented as well as for efficiency and productivity within the considered period for Russia and a number of other countries relative to the United States. Conclusions are formulated regarding long-term trends in the development of the global economy.

The article analyzes the features of tax regulation of economic growth in conditions of postconflict economic recovery in the DPR (Donetsk People’s Republic). The features of the tax system of the DPR and its resource base are identified from the standpoint of the influence of taxes on economic growth. The risks of fiscal consolidation are indicated taking into account the technological factor and it is substantiated that priority in the policy should not be focused on increasing tax revenues, but on ensuring the further “seamless” entry of the DPR tax system into the Russian legal field and the formation of a favorable institutional environment for the effective use of tax incentives and preferences for the introduction of new equipment and technologies.

A new look at the nature of spatial development in Russia assumes structural shifts of economic activity in the latitudinal direction. The main questions posed in this regard in the article boil down to the following. How dynamic can and should the development of the eastern territories be? Is it enough that the pace of their development corresponds to all-Russian indicators, or is preferential growth considered appropriate? A specific task is to assess the investment conditions under which, in the long term until 2026, an increase in the share of the eastern regions in the country’s GRP is possible. It is shown that in the case of prolongation of the existing ratio of incremental capital intensity in the Asian part of the country and the Russian Federation as a whole, an increase in the share of the Asian part in the GRP of the Russian Federation requires unreasonably high investment costs. A good result should be considered the stabilization of this share by 2025, with an average accumulation rate during the forecast period in the Asian part of approximately 30%.

The article analyzes the results of the latest survey of Russian enterprises in the real sector of the economy, conducted by the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The opinions of enterprises on the impact of Western economic sanctions on their activities are given. A significant expansion of current investment activity and an intensification of investment intentions of enterprises have been identified. Information is presented on the growth of competition from foreign manufacturers in the domestic Russian market. The concerns of enterprises about expensive loans and labor shortages are reflected. The degree of development of remote employment and outsourcing in Russia is shown. Information is provided on the growing awareness of Russian enterprises about ESG principles and the decreasing relevance of the ESG agenda in the context of sanctions.

The exogenous political shock caused by an unprecedented sanction yoke imposed on Russia by the West has noticeably accelerated the repartition of Europe’s oil market. This process develops in the context of a decreasing demand for oil in major European economies. It is shown that the world’s major vertically integrated oil and gas companies are one of the main beneficiaries of this repartition. Not only do they boost oil exports to Europe but they also rely on their European oil treatment facilities in the context of exacerbated competition. The expansion of the export niche of major US and European companies in the market in decline results not only from market competition but also from the sanctions imposed by the EU and G7 on importing Russian oil and oil products. Expected environmental regulation shocks will make the competition in the European oil market even more intensive.

The paper analyzes the development results for the Russian machinery industry over 2010–2023, defines the tasks of its further strategic development, and assesses their attainability taking into account the potential state support provided by the 2024–2026 federal budget. Special consideration is given to the structural changes that occurred inside the complex in 2022 and 2023. In particular, the parameters of labor productivity are analyzed, as well as the composition and structure of material expenditures, which has undergone significant changes due to the processes of import substitution and rising prices. Based on the identified structural imbalances and key problems, priority goals for the medium-term development of the complex are determined. In conclusion, the budgetary restrictions imposed on the achievement of the established goals for the strategic development of the machinery industry by the parameters of the federal budget law for 2024–2026 are assessed.