- Research Article
- 10.36724/2072-8735-2024-18-10-14-21
Метод моделирования систем мониторинга грозовой активности
- Jan 01, 2024
- T-Comm
- M.v Postrybaylo + 1 more +1
The problem of using mathematical modeling to ensure the main characteristics of the projected thunderstorm activity monitoring systems, such as the probability of detection and the accuracy of determining coordinates for the selected work area, is discussed. The aim of the study is to develop a model capable of estimating the probability of detection and the accuracy of determining the coordinates of lightning discharges. A comprehensive model is proposed that allows designing the configuration of a system capable of providing specified characteristics by obtaining model estimates and their sub sequent analysis. The created model of the thunderstorm activity monitoring system consists of two main components: a component for assessing the probability of detecting discharges and a component for assessing the accuracy of location. The model is used to estimate the probability of detection and the accuracy of determining the coordinates of a lightning discharge, various configurations of the taking into account the uncorrelation of measurement errors by an experimental network deployed in St. Petersburg. The work includes the results of modeling monitoring system, the results of which are presented in the form of graphic materials. Each figure shows the results of calculating estimates for various parameters of the system and its individual components. Based on the data obtained, the formation of the working zones of the system was carried out, where the requirements for the accuracy of determining coordinates and the probability of detecting lightning discharges were met. In conclusion, the prospects for the development of the proposed model are discussed, including the possibility of further improving algorithms for finding optimal monitoring system structures. A further study of the dependence of the estimates obtained on the input parameters of the complex model is proposed. The scope of the model covers tasks related to forecasting and analyzing thunderstorm activity, and can also be used to develop new monitoring systems or optimize existing solutions.
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