ABSTRACT Although new policy frameworks such as the humanitarian-development-peace (HDP) nexus are emerging to better respond to increasingly complex and protracted conflicts and humanitarian crises, analysis of their impact remains limited. We analyse the case of Iraq in the aftermath of the ISIL conflict with data that measures the impact of interventions from across the nexus domains. Results show that humanitarian and development outcomes improved steadily over time, while peace outcomes remained poor and relatively unchanged. Improvement in the ‘soft’ security elements of peace related to social cohesion and coexistence were superseded by a deterioration in ‘hard’ security elements linked to protection of civilians and security configurations over time. These findings are explained by the lack of integration of hard security elements into an otherwise comprehensive international response along HDP Triple Nexus components. Separate hard security interventions rather had a critically different scope focused primarily on counterterrorism without further encompassing the wider range of security issues facing conflict-affected populations, including those internally displaced seeking to return, nor did they consider the diffusion of local powers and actors in this regard. This has left particularly vulnerable displaced and conflict-affected communities without remedy as priorities in the country shift.

ABSTRACT Although public diplomacy and its influence on foreign public opinion have been central themes in recent research, the latter often lacks methodological diversity and does not consider how states create competing images. Our study offers a framework for understanding Italian public opinion using a triangulation approach that combines traditional public opinion surveys with advanced text analysis of social media content. We compare the representation of China and the United States in the Italian Twitter community during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our analysis shows that Italians who perceived China as a viable alternative to Western governments in public opinion surveys did so because they distrusted Western leaders and institutions.

ABSTRACT Russia’s war in Ukraine has sharpened the contours of alternative world orders. These diverging orders emerged in recent decades through the creation of distinct institutions and policy positions by the ‘Political South’. While the ‘Political West’ emphasises democracy, market economy and universal human rights as guiding principles for international order, the Political South prioritises national autonomy, non-intervention in internal affairs and state-permeated economies. The Political South rejects military aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, cultivates a good relationship with Moscow and criticises Western conceptions of world order as paternalistic. Core actors of the ‘Southern World Order’ (SWO) are the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, the People’s Republic of China [PRC] and South Africa), which created international institutions as alternatives to the Liberal International Order (LIO). These countries, however, did not leave the LIO and continue to have close economic relations with the West. This double-track strategy arguably correlates with the plurality of domestic societal forces, which includes ideational and material ties with the West.

ABSTRACT Although the Russia–Ukraine war has had only a limited impact on the agricultural production in the two belligerent states, it has triggered a number of interlocking ripple effects, which have exacerbated pre-existing strains in the supply chain. The war is best seen not as an isolated shock, whose effects can be traced along a single linear axis, but as a factor in a network of interlocking global crises. The initial small drop in food supply has translated into market panic, spiking inflation and food insecurity in import-dependent areas, subsequently enhancing geopolitical dislocation. Quantitative data on food prices and trade and production volumes will be combined with a qualitative study of the war’s socio-political ripples in at-risk regions to examine the effects of the war on the global food trade and put these in a theoretical framework, outlining the links between geopolitics, socio-economic strains, disruptions to global commodity markets and food insecurity.

ABSTRACT As a major importer of fossil fuels, the EU will likely see its position in the geopolitics of energy change following its commitment to carbon neutrality by 2050. This article analyses the implications of the energy transition for the EU’s role in energy geopolitics, looking at declining and emerging energy dependences by investigating the EU’s exposure to the material foundations of interdependence (sensitivity) and its ability to manage them (vulnerability). The EU is generally in a more advantageous geopolitical position in a clean energy order than in the current fossil fuel-based energy system. This is mostly a result of the geological distribution and specific material features of clean energy materials and the EU’s ability to manage such interdependence, as decarbonisation involves a set of policy areas where the EU shows important external strengths. Weaknesses may persist, however, as growing contestation could render sectoral state-like industrial policies more central to geo-economic competition.

ABSTRACT By hosting the Olympics in 2008 and 2022, Beijing became the first city to organise both the Summer and Winter Games. These events offered the People’s Republic of China (PRC) an opportunity to present itself to the world and enhance its attractiveness. However, between the two editions, Chinese self-perception has experienced significant transformations, as has its vision of the world, resulting in the national attitude shifting from adaptation to, to contestation of pre-established norms and paradigms. The symbols, images, scenes and discourses exhibited during the opening and closing ceremonies of the Beijing 2008 and 2022 Olympics mirror the broader international communication strategies deployed by the PRC under the Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping presidencies as part of their implementation of negative soft power.

ABSTRACT Addressing environmental concerns and hosting ‘green’ Olympic Games played a major role in shaping the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) soft power strategy for both the 2008 and 2022 Olympics, although in significantly different ways. Critical discourse analysis suggests a number of tensions and changes in the narratives related to environmental matters built around the two events. Firstly, an analysis of the narratives related to air pollution and artificial snow demonstrates strong differences between the Chinese and Anglophone media discourse. Secondly, the political shift that occurred between 2008 and 2022 – from Hu Jintao to Xi Jinping – is reflected in the different environmental discourse and practices developed by the PRC during the two Olympics: from compliance with international standards to the (self-) elevation as a global leader in environmental sustainability.

ABSTRACT The race to rapidly decarbonise and digitalise the global economy by 2030 to avoid temperatures rising above 1.5C has been subsumed by geopolitics that remains anchored in realist power struggles, now revolving around Sino-American hyper-competition. The Russian invasion of Ukraine further undermined interdependence and prompted unprecedented levels of economic statecraft. Access to indispensable minerals for a net zero future has thus become more securitised. The European Union (EU) has pushed back against bipolar geopolitics by utilising its normative, economic and regulatory power and strong networks of global institutional relations to maintain a competitive but working relationship with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Such an approach may help broker broader global institutional collaboration to ensure that decarbonisation is for all, not just for the few.

ABSTRACT The heterogeneity of the Eastern Partnership countries’ cultures, political regimes and foreign policy aspirations has been a challenge to the EU’s formulation of a coherent umbrella policy towards the region since the 2004 enlargement. Document analysis with a focus on region-level documents and the cases of Ukraine and Azerbaijan demonstrates the EU’s tendency to shift from an emphasis on European integration and common values to the sustainable development concept in order to address this challenge. By also taking into account the context of this tendency, this analysis highlights the need to balance sustainable development, integration efforts and democratisation in the Eastern Partnership amidst increasing differentiation between target countries and geopolitical pressures.