The article assesses the returns on skills of IT specialists in Russian cities of different sizes. The empirical basis of the study consists of open data on job vacancies published on the HeadHunter platform in March—April 2025. The paper describes the data processing procedures, including the unification of skill descriptions and their transformation into discrete variables. The main research method is hedonic wage modeling in the labor market, which allows for estimating the impact of various factors on the salaries of information technology professionals. The econometric modeling employs a two-step OLS approach with Heckman correction and sequential inclusion of variables into the baseline specification. The results show that professional IT skills, personal characteristics, managerial skills, and employment in Moscow, the Moscow region, St. Petersburg, and cities located outside the Russian Federation have a statistically significant positive effect on IT specialists’ wages. Employment in cities with populations between 250 thousand and one million people, as well as social skills, have a significant negative effect. For professional IT skills, significant positive effects were identified in Moscow, the Moscow region, and St. Petersburg, indicating that the city effect remains even after accounting for cross-city differences in skill valuation. The main findings of the study are relevant for the development and implementation of education, regional, and migration policies aimed at fostering the training and mobility of highly qualified employees. The proposed approach to working with relatively small but easily accessible datasets can also be applied in expert HR analytics, for example, to identify differences among local labor markets.

The return to power of Donald Trump, a major businessman unencumbered by academic dogma, was based on slogans resonating with traditional America, economic and political superiority. The previous liberal-progressive dogma of Joe Biden’s day did not withstand a direct confrontation with the energy of Trump and his opponents in a two-party system. The broad coverage of trading partners by increased import duties puts the US in a situation of a large and complex experiment with breaking the usual parameters (and dogmas) on issues of competition and impact on consumer welfare in the country. The new old president is keeping several important industrial policy laws in place and continuing his policy of low business taxes and reduced spending on climate programs (which is basically a dogma). At the same time, he is making a dramatic and risky attempt to influence macroeconomic parameters (budget deficit) and trade and economic parameters (reducing the trade deficit, increasing the inflow of direct investment), shifting taxation from income to consumption, and increasing trade tariffs. By the end of 2025, the temporary equilibrium had been reached in the tariff arena in relations with the European Union, while conflict delayed and difficult negotiations continued with China. The key instrument of long-term domestic economic policy — OВВВ — was approved by the country’s Congress. It is this act that will determine the main parameters for breaking the old model of development and the legacy of Donald Trump. The drama of the Republican president’s steps is partly defined by the need to compress the period of radical shifts with the transition to the 2026 and 2028 election campaigns.

The article shows structural changes in the relationship between the mortgage rate and MIACR (Moscow Interbank Actual Credit Rate), identified in the analysis of the dynamics of weighted average mortgage rates (published on the website of the Bank of Russia) in Russian regions for 2022—2025. The rates of residential mortgage loans and MIACR were multidirectional, and fluctuations in mortgage rates became more frequent. The structural changes are due to the countercyclical policy of the Bank of Russia, the expectations of large banks of a key interest rate reduction, the wide coverage of borrowers with preferential mortgage programs, and refinancing. The spread of mortgage rates among regions has increased due to the heterogeneity of consumers and the uneven presence of regional banks in the regions. The indicated violations of the connection between the mortgage rates and MIACR appeared differently. To account for the heterogeneity, the regions of Russia were divided into 5 main clusters using the K-Means method. A forecast of regional mortgage rates for 2025—2026 has been built for each region separately.

The paper examines the impact of labor supply shocks, wage bargaining shocks, productivity shocks, and external and domestic demand shocks on the Russian labor market from 2017 to 2024. Using a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) identified through sign restrictions and performing a historical decomposition, the study finds that both macroeconomic and market-specific shocks influence key labor market variables. Special attention is given to the factors contributing to labor market imbalances in recent years. The results indicate that the primary drivers of declining unemployment and rising employment since late 2022 have been positive domestic demand and productivity shocks, whereas external demand and wage bargaining shocks have constrained labor demand growth. The labor market conditions observed since spring 2023 can be characterized as a job seeker’s market. The normalization of domestic demand and the rise in real wages are helping to restore equilibrium in the Russian labor market.

The LC-curve method, a novel approach to time-series analysis, was applied to a composite Business Uncertainty Index (BUI) constructed from regular Rosstat business surveys. This approach made it possible to trace uncertainty trajectories across Russia’s major industries and sub-sectors using two index specifications: ex ante (expected) and ex post (realized). The empirical analysis for 2020—2024 demonstrates the high sensitivity of LC-curves to economic shocks and their relevance for identifying the stages of business activity across industries. Both crisis periods within the study horizon — 2020 and 2022 — were clearly captured by the curves, with the pandemic showing a more pronounced negative impact. The forecast dynamics suggest that industrial activity will enter a phase of slower growth in 2025. Particular attention is given to medium-highand high-technology industries, highlighting those that exhibit the greatest resilience and are likely to play a key role in the structural transformation of the Russian economy.

The events of 2022—2023 created a setting for a quasi-natural experiment that makes it possible to assess how the Bank of Russia’s support measures influenced the stock-market valuation of banks. While the general external environment affected all participants in the equity market, banks experienced an additional influence not faced by other companies—namely, the support measures introduced by the Bank of Russia in 2022. A quantitative assessment of the effects of Russia’s macroprudential-easing policy shows that these measures acted as an extra factor supporting banks’ market value. Specifically, the share prices of banks covered by the supportive macroprudential policy changed less than those of other firms.

Economic theory and empirical research link economic growth with education, a key component of human capital. Yet high levels of education do not guarantee economic growth if a weak institutional environment hinders the productive use of knowledge and skills. By studying the nexus between institutions and education in different countries, we conclude that weak institutions are usually paired with low levels of education. Some post-socialist countries, as well as a number of other countries with relatively high levels of education that have experienced institutional deterioration after major crises are among exceptions. The argument about the unproductive use of human capital due to institutional problems is most applicable to such countries. Using system GMM on a panel of 134 countries over the period 1970—2015, we obtain significant positive estimates of the impact of both institutions and education on economic growth. Our results indicate that weak institutions markedly constrain economic growth even in countries with educated population.

Perestroika (restructuring) was the last of three large-scale attempts to reform the Soviet economy on the basis of market principles. Similar to the previous two attempts (the NEP and the Kosygin economic reform of 1965), it failed to produce a sustainable result but led to the aggravation of political problems. However, unlike the previous two, perestroika ended with the collapse of the entire Soviet system. The paper deals with the processes of unfolding of the economic crisis, objective problems of the Soviet model and mistakes of economic policy in 1985—1991. The author discusses the principal possibility of implementation of market reforms while remaining within the framework of the Soviet political system. Special attention is paid to the logic and consistency of socio-economic policy, the correlation of macroeconomic, institutional, and structural transformations. The sources of the systemic crisis and the first programs to overcome it are considered as well.

Carrying out decarbonization of the economy requires a mechanism for determining the price of carbon. The work is built on the data of the world’s leading studies, statistical and exchange indicators, that are analyzed using the methods of descriptive statistics and integral equations. The features of carbon as an external effect are highlighted, which, in comparison with standard exchange assets, to a greater extent limit the possibility of setting a price for it in the course of negotiations and bargaining (the Coase theorem). The incompatibility of ensuring physical equivalence of emitted and stored carbon with economic equivalence, taking into account time preferences, is shown. The method for determining the price of carbon is proposed to achieve a balance of interests between current and future generations, taking into account differences among countries and emitted greenhouse gases. This method was tested for Russia. The criteria and mechanisms of carbon pricing as an external effect, keeping in mind its highlighted features, are put forward. Measures aimed at maximizing the effect of decarbonization of the economy are proposed.

The article examines the US trade policy reversal during the second term of Donald Trump’s presidency towards neo-protectionism, which contradicts the principles of the multilateral trading system and undermines transatlantic relations. The new Republican administration imposes tariffs and restricts trade flows, following a policy that weakens established global economic practices. This policy, aimed at reducing the trade deficit, national debt, and taxes, as well as revitalizing production in the US, may harm the American economy itself and trigger a global recession. Despite the deep economic interdependence between the US and the EU, the institutions of the Union, along with the leaders of individual member states, are determined to retaliate to safeguard their domestic industries. In this confrontation, compromises cannot be ruled out. The article provides an assessment of the economic impact of the duties imposed by Trump and examines the possibilities and limitations of the EU’s retaliatory measures.