Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Water Availability: A Comprehensive Study on the Farmers in Northern Bangladesh
ABSTRACT While climate change poses growing threats to agricultural water availability, research examining these impacts remains limited, particularly in northern Bangladesh. To strengthen the evidence base for adaptive water management, this study investigates the impacts of climate change on water availability in northern Bangladesh by exploring the water bodies and rainfall changes, focusing on seven disaster‐prone districts. Utilizing a mixed‐method approach, the research involved 385 purposively selected respondents and employed various data collection techniques like surveys, Key Informant Interviews (KIIs), and Focus Group Discussions (FGDs). Geographic Information System (GIS) was also utilized to analyze changes in water bodies and rainfall patterns. The study revealed significant alterations in water availability, particularly from the perspective of farmers, who reported adverse effects on agricultural practices. Notably, a coefficient for crop choices indicated a detrimental impact, suggesting that unchanged crop choices were associated with a 0.766 times lower likelihood of maintaining water availability. Additionally, changes in river runoff exhibited further emphasizing the negative implications for water resources. Farmers noted declines in water levels and alterations in the water table, attributing these changes to climate change, which prompted shifts in crop water requirements and necessitated adaptations in farming practices. GIS analysis findings revealed a 2.82% decline in water body in Kazipur from 2010 to 2020, while other studied sub‐districts experienced increasing trends, exacerbating water scarcity, and affecting agricultural productivity. The study evaluated water management strategies, such as crop rotation, installing deep motor, and water conservation by digging pond, to address these challenges. Ultimately, the findings highlighted significant threats to agricultural sustainability and productivity due to changing water availability, underscoring the need for adaptive strategies, including alternative water sources, changing planting dates, and implementing water‐saving irrigation techniques like drip irrigation among farmers and the potential for conflicts over water resources in the context of climate change.
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