Escitalopram treatment for patients with major depressive disorder: decision trees for treatment algorithm.
Current treatment algorithms for major depressive disorder (MDD) lack dynamic prediction capabilities, leading to delayed therapeutic adjustments. This study sought to develop escitalopram-specific decision tree models to identify critical treatment adjustment time points and optimize personalized treatment strategies for MDD. Using longitudinal data from two multicenter studies in China (2015-2020), we analyzed 800 patients with MDD receiving escitalopram monotherapy. Decision tree models incorporated baseline characteristics (age, BMI, disease duration, depressive symptoms) and dynamic treatment parameters (dose, 2-/4-week improvement) to predict full response (>50% symptom reduction) or non-full response (≤50% reduction) at weeks 2 and 4, and remission status (QIDS-SR16≤5 vs. >5) at week 8. Model performance was assessed by accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and area under the curve (AUC). The week 2 model (n=800) identified BMI, age, disease duration, course and baseline symptom severity as primary predictors (accuracy=61.88%, NPV=84.04%). By week 4 (n=650), early response status (week 2) merged as a key predictor (accuracy=69.23%, NPV=71.62%). The week 8 model (n=456) demonstrated enhanced predictive power, driven by life quality score, week 2/4 response status, and week 4 dosage (accuracy=78.02%, PPV=81.48%, NPV=72.97%). Logistic regression confirmed week 4 response status as a significant predictor of week 8 outcome (p<0.005). Week 4 emerges as a key decision point for escitalopram-treated MDD patients, where integration of baseline profiles, early response patterns, and dose parameters allows timely intervention. Our decision tree framework offers a methodological approach for dynamic decision points that warrant prospective validation and extension to other antidepressants.
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