Benadir University

Somalia is experiencing rapid urban expansion alongside rising electricity demand, posing significant challenges for sustainable development and infrastructure planning in a context characterized by severe data limitations. Empirical evidence on the urban–energy nexus in Somalia remains scarce, particularly studies employing formal time-series forecasting techniques. This study addresses this gap by applying Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models to forecast urbanization and electricity consumption using quarterly data obtained from international statistical sources. Following the Box–Jenkins methodology and information criteria, ARIMA (4,1,2) and ARIMA (5,1,2) are identified as the optimal models for urbanization and electricity consumption, respectively. Diagnostic tests confirm model adequacy and stability. The forecasts indicate a sustained increase in both urbanization and electricity consumption through 2030, reflecting rising population density and escalating energy needs. The study establishes a robust univariate forecasting benchmark for Somalia and provides empirical insights to inform integrated urban–energy policies and sustainable infrastructure investment. Future research may extend this analysis by incorporating multivariate or hybrid forecasting approaches to enhance policy relevance.

Somalia's recurring hunger crises are often viewed as emergencies that can be addressed by emergency food aid. In reality, chronic food insecurity now stems from structural fault lines-poverty, conflict, displacement, climate volatility, weak land tenure, under-resourced ministries, and fractured markets-that short-term food aid cannot repair. Today, 4.3 million Somalis face acute food insecurity, and more than 700,000 children are acutely malnourished, even though the country boasts a 3333-km coastline, fertile river valleys and a rich tradition of pastoralism and farming. Cycles of drought have decimated herds, forced pastoralists into urban slums, and eroded coping mechanisms, while conflict blocks access to productive land and drives up dependence on imports for over 80% of staple foods. Climate change is tightening this vise through erratic rains, scorching heat, and flash floods. To achieve sustainable food security, Somalia must shift from emergency relief to long-term investments in resilient and inclusive food systems. That means channelling at least five percent of public expenditure into irrigation, water harvesting, and extension services; securing land rights to spur on-farm investment; scaling early-warning and climate-smart technologies; and rebuilding rural infrastructure, cold chains, and digital marketplaces so smallholders can reach consumers. Nutrition gains hinge on diversifying production of fruits, vegetables, legumes, and animal proteins, linked to community health and education programs. A national Food Systems Coordination Council should align humanitarian and development actors with regional frameworks, while public-private partnerships unlock finance for Somali agribusiness innovations. Ending hunger is not only a humanitarian obligation; it is a prerequisite for stability, growth, and social justice. With political will, integrated governance, and sustained investment, Somalia can move beyond food aid, harness its land and heritage, and lay the foundation for a resilient, self-reliant future.

Aflatoxin $$\hbox {B}_1$$ (AFB$$_1$$) is a genotoxic carcinogen that frequently contaminates cereals in tropical food systems. Somalia lacks nationally representative dietary intake data to support exposure assessment and risk management. To estimate dietary exposure to AFB$$_1$$ from maize and sorghum among Somali adults and children and to characterize risk using internationally endorsed toxicological reference points. A deterministic exposure assessment integrated AFB$$_1$$ occurrence data from Somali market surveys with per-capita daily cereal intake derived from SIHBS 2022. Average Probable Daily Intake (APDI; ng/kg bw/day) was calculated for adults (60 kg) and children (20 kg) across mean, P50, P95, and P97.5 consumption levels combined with minimum, median, and maximum contamination scenarios. Margin of Exposure (MOE) was computed using BMDL$$_{10}$$ = 400 ng/kg bw/day. Maize—especially white maize—dominated exposure. Under median contamination, adult maize APDI ranged 293–1366 ng/kg bw/day (MOE 1.37–0.29), while children’s APDI ranged 878–4101 ng/kg bw/day (MOE 0.46–0.10). Sorghum generally contributed much lower exposure except under maximum contamination for red sorghum. Children had approximately three-fold higher exposure than adults on a body-weight basis. Estimated MOEs were far below 10,000, indicating very high priority for risk management. Strengthened regulation, monitoring, and post-harvest interventions are urgently needed, alongside improved dietary data systems.

This research examines the role of entrepreneurial support in sustaining small and medium enterprises (SMEs). The case study focuses on the National Unemployment Insurance Fund (CNAC) in Annaba and El Tarf, Algeria, administratively known as wilayas. SMEs are vital for job creation, economic growth, and local innovation, yet they face persistent challenges in financial management and long-term survival. The study employs a descriptive-analytical methodology supported by empirical data and questionnaires targeting entrepreneurs engaged in CNAC’s programs. It emphasizes key forms of assistance, including financial and administrative support, training and capacity building, and follow-up processes. Findings indicate that entrepreneurial support has helped reduce unemployment by encouraging business creation. However, such support alone is insufficient to ensure long-term economic sustainability unless complemented by policies such as tax reductions, improved facilities, and a more favorable entrepreneurial climate. The study therefore recommends reconsidering current support mechanisms to help SMEs transition from aid dependency to competitiveness and sustainability, which is essential for local development and a resilient national economy.

IntroductionThe global development discourse primarily emphasizes the vital role of international aid in post-conflict health systems and governance. Somalia’s post-conflict health recovery has relied heavily on multisectoral aid that saved lives but entrenched parallel systems. While the national budget rose from ~ SOS 200 million (2015) to ~ SOS 1.3 billion (2025), the Ministry of Health’s share remained ≤ 7%, leaving sustainability and local ownership at risk. Recent funding cuts have reduced food, health, and WASH services, heightening disease and malnutrition risks. This review examines the long-term impacts of multisectoral aid on Somalia’s health system and governance, focusing on its effectiveness, sustainability, and unintended consequences.MethodWe conducted a narrative review (1990–2024; final search April 25, 2025) across PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Google Scholar, and gray literature (WHO, UNICEF, World Bank, USAID, FMoH). Using SANRA guidance, two reviewers screened 221 records plus prior evidence; 334 studies/reports were synthesized via hybrid thematic coding (NVivo) across five domains: aid-driven system development; aid–governance interactions; consequences of dependency; comparative insights; and sustainability pathways.ResultsAid delivered tangible “fruits”: expanded immunization and MCH coverage; high 2024 delivery performance (health 95% with US$69.8 M spent; nutrition 95.5% with US$73.9 M); and total donor inflows of ~ US$721.9 M fully deposited. However, most funds flowed off-budget through vertical programs and parallel supply/data chains, fragmenting governance and dampening state capacity. Despite the health share peaking at 7% (2023) and stabilizing near 6.8% (2025), cuts in 2025 curtailed essential services, leaving millions more vulnerable. Comparative cases (Liberia, Sierra Leone vs. South Sudan, Afghanistan) show sustainability improves when pooled funding, government payroll integration, and PHC-first strategies are adopted.ConclusionFor Somalia to transition from aid dependency to sustainable health governance, a deliberate shift is needed by strengthening FMoH leadership, funding PHC, unifying systems, integrating staff into public payroll, and ensuring epidemic readiness.

The global population is increasing rapidly, with projections for suggesting this will rise to 60% by 2030 and 70% by 2050. Africa’s long-term vision aligns with Agenda 2063 and Somalia’s development trajectory, including the launch of its National Transformation Plan (NTP) for 2025–2029. This plan highlights the country’s evolving national development strategies, from the post-independence National Development Plans (NDPs) to more recent frameworks. Despite ambitious goals, previous plans have struggled due to institutional fragility, political instability, and heavy reliance on external aid. Somalia, located on the Horn of Africa, has faced numerous challenges, including conflict, climate vulnerability, and economic stagnation, which have hindered long-term progress. The paper traces Somalia’s historical development journey and offers a comprehensive review of how past lessons can inform future planning. The NTP 2025–2029 marks a significant shift in Somalia’s approach to national development. For the first time, the country adopts a participatory, systems-based methodology through the Lab Approach. This approach integrates multiple stakeholders, including federal and member state institutions, civil society, and international partners, to collaboratively design solutions tailored to Somalia’s unique needs. The NTP seeks to foster inclusive economic growth, resilient governance, and environmental sustainability, all aligned with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the African Union’s Agenda 2063. This holistic transformation focuses on overcoming previous obstacles, such as weak institutions and fragmented governance. While NTP presents a forward-thinking framework, its successful implementation is contingent on overcoming significant challenges. The article highlights Somalia’s security threats, technical capacity gaps, and political fragmentation, suggesting strengthening institutional frameworks, enhancing fiscal autonomy, and prioritizing climate resilience through robust monitoring and stakeholder engagement. The NTP aims for a prosperous, democratic, and resilient Somalia by 2029, providing a clear and actionable roadmap for the country’s long-term development and stability.

Objective: To analyze the efficacy of intraoperative neurophysiological monitoring (IONM) to keep the patient neurologically functional during surgical management of Tethered Cord Syndrome (TCS). Material and Methods: The retrospective study was done on 40 patients of tethered cord release in Khyber Teaching Hospital, Peshawar, during March 2024 to February 2025. Transcranial motor evoked potentials (TcMEPs), tibial nerve somatosensory evoked potentials (TNSEPs), and pudendal anal reflex (PAR) were used as intraoperative monitoring. Pre and postoperative evaluations were done on motor strength, sensory, and bladder/anal control. The Fisher Exact Test was used to carry out statistical analysis with a p-value of < 0.05. Results: The average time of follow-up of patients (mean age: 20.14 +/- 11.96 years) was 8.41 months. The success monitoring was 95 percent in TcMEPs, 72.5 percent in TNSEPs, and 82.5 percent in PAR. In 7.5 percent of cases, transient deficits were reported. TcMEPs had a sensitivity and specificity of 100 percent to predict motor outcomes. TNSEPs were highly correlated with sensory changes (p = 0.049), whereas PAR was not significantly correlated with bladder dysfunction (p = 0.497). There were no significant complications. Conclusion: Multimodal IONM of tethered cord surgery promotes intraoperative safety and contributes to the maintenance of motor and sensory functions. TcMEPs were very accurate in the determination of motor outcome, whereas TNSEPs were very informative in the determination of sensory activity.

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) affects a large number of pregnant women globally and generates significant health complications for both mothers and their newborns. Objectives: To establish anemia prevalence among pregnant women with and without gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) by investigating how various demographic and clinical factors influence this relationship. Methods: A six-month comparative cross-sectional study was conducted at Khairpur Medical College, Khairpur Mir’s. The study enrolled pregnant women n=200 between 18-40 years of age who had single child pregnancies during the gestational period of 24 to 28 weeks. The criteria established by WHO distinguished anemia while the diagnosis of GDM followed the OGTT results using a 75g Oral Glucose Tolerance Test (OGTT) as per WHO/ADA 2013 guidelines. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics with chi-square tests and logistic regression. Results: The mean age of maternal individuals (29.8 years) along with body mass index (BMI 29.4 kg/m²) was higher in GDM group members than in non-GDM group individuals; p<0.001. GDM mothers had higher anemia prevalence at 78.3% compared to 57.1% in the other group (p=0.004), alongside lower average hemoglobin measurement results (9.8 g/dL compared to 10.5 g/dL, p=0.001). The analysis using logistic regression established both anemia along BMI and maternal age as independent risks for GDM diagnosis (OR: 2.35, p=0.006). Conclusion: It was concluded that anemia occurs more frequently in pregnant women with GDM, while remaining an independent GDM factor, which also correlates with elevated maternal age and BMI compared to non-GDM women.

Between 2022 and 2024, Somalia's ongoing drought claimed more than 70 000 lives, with nearly 40% of these deaths among children under 5. This tragic loss highlights the urgent need for action to address the disproportionate impact of the drought on Somalia's most vulnerable populations. The 2022 drought, which affected nearly half of the country's population, brought Somalia to the brink of famine, leaving many families without essential resources and health care, particularly in the southern-central regions like Banadir, Bay, and Lower Shabelle. Despite narrowly avoiding famine through the efforts of the Somali government and international partners, the consequences of the drought continue to devastate communities. The study "From Insight to Action: An Update on Mortality Patterns in Somalia" reveals that most excess deaths were children, presenting not only a tragedy for families but also a long-term social and economic setback for the nation. WHO and UNICEF stress the need for a long-term approach to address Somalia's vulnerabilities, emphasizing the importance of building resilient health systems, investing in climate-resilient agriculture, and empowering communities. The international community must also commit to supporting Somalia's development to break the cycle of disaster and ensure a brighter future for the nation's children.