Federation of American Scientists

The Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) was the first international disarmament treaty to eliminate an entire class of weapons. As it celebrates its semicentennial, the BWC is recognized for enshrining norms against the misuse of biology, even during the height of the Cold War: norms that encapsulated humanity's repugnance of bioweapons. Nevertheless, the BWC faces unique challenges compared to other disarmament treaties, such as the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty or the Chemical Weapons Convention. These include debates around verification, sociopolitical friction across the states parties, and even accusations that states parties have maintained biological weapons programs despite their treaty obligations. Many experts note difficulties in strengthening the BWC, particularly in a multipolar, competitive geopolitical environment. One potential pathway to support the BWC is using open-source information collection, analysis, and methods applied toward a "layered approach to verification [which] could help build confidence in compliance and potentially verify the BWC." Colloquially known as open-source intelligence (OSINT), this intelligence-gathering discipline uses publicly available information and signals sources for fact-checking, investigating suspicious occurrences, and examining items of interest. This approach has shown promise in other weapons of mass destruction applications, from tracking and tracing Syrian and Russian use of chemical weapons to uncovering nuclear weapons arsenals. Further, as stakeholders generate and retain more biological data from multisource samples, now is an opportune time to examine how open-source information and methods might mitigate bioweapons risks. This is particularly germane to the present, as people explore OSINT information and methods as 1 tool to both help strengthen the BWC architecture and support transparency and norm-setting efforts outside of the treaty.

This paper analyzes the collapse of the Qing dynasty (1644–1912) through the lens of the Structural Demographic Theory (SDT), a general framework for understanding the drivers of socio-political instability in state-level societies. Although a number of competing ideas for the collapse have been proposed, none provide a comprehensive explanation that incorporates the interaction of all the multiple drivers involved. We argue that the four-fold population explosion peaking in the 19th century, the growing competition for a stagnant number of elite positions, and increasing state fiscal stress combined to produce an increasingly disgruntled populace and elite, leading to significant internal rebellions. We find that while neither the ecological disasters nor the foreign incursions during the 19th century were sufficient on their own to bring down the Qing, when coupled with the rising internal socio-political stresses, they produced a rapid succession of triggering events that culminated in the Qing collapse.

Despite notable scientific and medical advances, broader political, socioeconomic and behavioural factors continue to undercut the response to the COVID-19 pandemic1,2. Here we convened, as part of this Delphi study, a diverse, multidisciplinary panel of 386 academic, health, non-governmental organization, government and other experts in COVID-19 response from 112 countries and territories to recommend specific actions to end this persistent global threat to public health. The panel developed a set of 41 consensus statements and 57 recommendations to governments, health systems, industry and other key stakeholders across six domains: communication; health systems; vaccination; prevention; treatment and care; and inequities. In the wake of nearly three years of fragmented global and national responses, it is instructive to note that three of the highest-ranked recommendations call for the adoption of whole-of-society and whole-of-government approaches1, while maintaining proven prevention measures using a vaccines-plus approach2 that employs a range of public health and financial support measures to complement vaccination. Other recommendations with at least 99% combined agreement advise governments and other stakeholders to improve communication, rebuild public trust and engage communities3 in the management of pandemic responses. The findings of the study, which have been further endorsed by 184 organizations globally, include points of unanimous agreement, as well as six recommendations with >5% disagreement, that provide health and social policy actions to address inadequacies in the pandemic response and help to bring this public health threat to an end.

As the U.S. and the world struggle through the COVID-19 pandemic, the need for science and technology (S&T) expertise in governance has become even more stark. But in the U.S., the vast majority of legislators and their staffs is generalist, and they have limited resources for engaging with S&T. This can be a barrier to both legislative branch oversight of S&T-related issues and the development of evidence-based public policies, two functions that are especially critical in times of crisis. The obstacles to addressing these gaps have, however, created opportunities for innovations in how lawmakers connect with S&T resources, resulting in new models for scientist-policymaker engagement. Our program, the Congressional Science Policy Initiative , experiments with models for connecting crowdsourced S&T expertise with policymakers, namely, by enriching key congressional hearings with contributions gathered from the science community, organizing advisory councils of scientists and engineers that brief lawmakers, and crowdsourcing technical assistance from the S&T community for legislative initiatives. These activities, which rely on the collective intelligence of the S&T community and have been readily applied to supporting lawmakers’ decision-making processes during the pandemic, have bolstered legislative branch oversight of the executive branch, fact-finding into corporate practices, and evidence-based policymaking.