His Majesty's Treasury

On many counts, UK economic performance has been disappointing since 2007.Average GDP growth has been 1 per cent compared with around 3 per cent in the previous 15 years.Debt interest has become a significant expenditure item.After years of low inflation, we have experienced a significant spike of inflation, with the rate exceeding 10 per cent in 2022 and remaining stubbornly above the target range even today.In the previous 15 years there were no significant inflation spikes.I first became actively involved in economic forecasting at the London Business School in 1965.Over the past 60 years, I have observed significant changes to the monetary and fiscal policy framework.I would like to begin by setting out those changes and the main inflation episodes before trying to answer the question 'could we have done better since 2007'? | FOUR PHASES OF POLICYFor me, there have been four distinct policy phases in the UK over the past 60 years, which are shown in Figure 1.The first phase, ending in 1972, turned out to be 'The breakdown of Bretton Woods'.Interest rates were rising but the rates for the leading economies were still bunched together.The second phase, from 1972 to the late 1970s demonstrated 'Life without an inflation anchor'.Interest rates soared, were volatile and varied between countries.The third phase, from the late 1970s to the early 1990s could be characterised as 'The search for a new monetary anchor'.This included monetary targets, the Medium Term Financial Strategy and a failed membership of the European exchange rate mechanism (or ERM).Interest rates remained high by today's standards, but volatility was reduced and there were growing signs of rates in different countries coming closer together again.The final phase, from the early 1990s onwards is

The increasing demand for sustainable construction materials has motivated the optimization of mortar mix designs to reduce cement consumption and its environmental impact while maintaining adequate mechanical performance. This study develops a machine learning (ML) model for optimizing mortar mixtures used in concrete roofing tiles by integrating aggregate particle packing techniques with non-linear regression algorithms, using an industry-grade dataset generated in the Central Laboratory of Wienerberger Ltd. Unlike most previous studies, which mainly focus on compressive strength, this research targets the transverse strength of industrial roof tile mortar. The proposed approach combines Tarantula Curve gradation limits, experimentally derived packing density (η), and ML regression within a unified and application-oriented workflow, representing a research direction rarely explored in the literature for optimizing concrete mix transverse strength. Fine concrete aggregates were characterized through a sand sieve analysis and subsequently adjusted according to the Tarantula Curve method to optimize packing density and minimize void content. Physical properties of cements and fine aggregates were assessed, and granulometric mixtures were evaluated using computational methods to calculate fineness modulus summation (FMS) and packing density. Mortar samples were tested for transverse strength at 1, 7, and 28 days using a three-point bending test, generating a robust dataset for modeling training. Three ML models—Random Forest Regressor (RFR), XG-Boost Regressor (XGBR), and Support Vector Regressor (SVR)—were evaluated, confirming their ability to capture nonlinear relationships between mix parameters and transverse strength. The analysis of input variables, which consistently ranked as the highest contributors according to impurity-based and permutation-based importance metrics, revealed that the duration of curing, density, and the summation of the fineness modulus significantly influenced the estimated transverse strength derived from the models. The integration of particle size distribution optimization and ML demonstrates a viable pathway for reducing cement content, lowering costs, and achieving sustainable mortar mix designs in the tile manufacturing industry.

In the world of digital commerce, Artificial intelligence (AI) is starting to shift the game and transform how organizations run. AI benefits firms and consumers both in retail and digital commerce. This review provides a comprehensive analysis of the critical role AI plays in fostering value creation in the digital commerce industry, with a particular emphasis on the ways in which task and information complexity affect the application of AI technologies. The review then looks at AI possibilities in digital commerce from a variety of angles, such as supply chain efficiency, cost savings, product recommendation, enhanced customer experience and marketing plans. The aim of this review is to exploring how AI applications create value in e-commerce. The approach that was employed described the search technique for locating pertinent academic sources and was based on a survey of the literature on recent 15 studies about the effect of AI for Value Creation in Digital Commerce. Finally, the findings demonstrate that utilizing AI as an advanced instrument in the digital commerce sector appears to be a positive move since it applying AI may foster creativity, improve decision-making, and enhance overall marketing performance.

De 1532 à 1540, Thomas Cromwell est ministre principal du roi Henri VIII, alors que le processus de rupture entre Rome et l’Angleterre est presque consommé. Appeler à l’union des Princes par la religion permet de ménager la place de l’Angleterre dans la diplomatie européenne. Ainsi, dans les lettres diplomatiques de Cromwell, on constate que le positionnement religieux de l’Angleterre est adapté en fonction de l’interlocuteur, ce qui permet un rapprochement diplomatique avec les Princes européens. L’étude de la correspondance de Cromwell avec les ambassadeurs John Wallop, ambassadeur anglais en France, Gregorio de Casali, agent pour l’Angleterre auprès du pape et Eustache Chapuys, ambassadeur pour Charles Quint auprès de la cour d’Angleterre, s’avère éclairante : comme Cromwell construit son discours sur l’idée qu’il se fait de la religion de son interlocuteur, pour arriver à un consensus stratégique, alors, le motif religieux – sujet de discorde entre Henri VIII et les princes chrétiens – devient un outil de rapprochement diplomatique. Ainsi, dans les lettres de Cromwell, on propose de comprendre l’appel à la religion comme un usage rhétorique permettant de se prémunir des critiques en invoquant des valeurs morales communes indiscutables, dans une forme de tolérance religieuse.

Abstract Nanowires are known to be thermally unstable and may break up into chains of nanoparticles at temperatures below their melting point. This phenomenon is reminiscent of the well‐known Rayleigh–Plateau instability of liquid jets, when periodic sausage‐like perturbations of the jet surface increase with time. The corresponding nanowire/jet shape modifications must be followed by a decrease in total surface energy. However, unlike isotropic liquid jet surfaces, the realization of this abatement in the system with a strong lattice structure and physical dissimilarity of bounding facets, leads to specific features of nanowire break‐up, namely, significant variations in the size of nanodrops and the average distance between them, the formation of long‐living dumbbells, and zigzag‐like structures. Here, the physical mechanisms of such diversity are analyzed. Apart from scientific insights, the yielded results can be potentially useful in applications such as the development of optical waveguides based on ordered nanoparticles chains.

It is becoming increasingly accepted that to understand and model the bacterial colonization and infection of abiotic surfaces requires the use of a biofilm model. There are many bacterial colonizations by at least two primary species, however this is difficult to model in vitro. This study reports the development of a simple mixed-species biofilm model using strains of two clinically significant bacteria: Staphylococcus aureus and Pseudomonas aeruginosa grown on nanoporous polycarbonate membranes on nutrient agar support. Scanning electron microscopy revealed the complex biofilm characteristics of two bacteria blending in extensive extracellular matrices. Using a prototype wound dressing which detects cytolytic virulence factors, the virulence secretion of 30 single and 40 mixed-species biofilms was tested. P. aeruginosa was seen to out-compete S. aureus, resulting in a biofilm with P. aeruginosa dominating. In situ growth of mixed-species biofilm under prototype dressings showed a real-time correlation between the viable biofilm population and their associated virulence factors, as seen by dressing fluorescent assay. This paper aims to provide a protocol for scientists working in the field of device related infection to create mixed-species biofilms and demonstrate that such biofilms are persistently more virulent in real infections. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Biomed Mater Res Part B: Appl Biomater, 107B: 129-137, 2019.