- Research Article
- 10.1080/23737484.2026.2639499
Interconnected economies: Exploring financial and economic dependencies between GCC and Turkey
- Mar 20, 2026
- Communications in Statistics: Case Studies, Data Analysis and Applications
- Haseen Ahmed
This research examines the long-term and nonlinear dependency patterns between Türkiye’s BISTTRKY index and the stock markets of four GCC nations—Saudi Arabia (TDWL), Qatar (QTRGE), UAE (DFM), and Oman (MSM30)—using data spanning from May 2010 to March 2025. By applying Johansen cointegration tests and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the study identifies significant long-term equilibrium connections, notably strong between BISTTRKY and TDWL, QTRGE, and DFM. To address complex and asymmetric interdependencies beyond linear associations, R-vine copula models are employed, which surpass traditional copulas in detecting tail dependencies and dynamic risk linkages. The results indicate that although regional stock markets show varying levels of integration with BISTTRKY, nonlinear dependencies—particularly during extreme market conditions—restrict the potential for portfolio diversification. These findings hold significant implications for investors pursuing cross-border hedging strategies and for policymakers focused on managing systemic risks and enhancing regional financial collaboration. While the study offers solid empirical evidence, it is constrained by its omission of macroeconomic variables and the assumption of static dependence structures. Future research could investigate dynamic copula models, include external factors, and broaden the analysis to other emerging markets for a more thorough understanding of regional financial interconnectedness.
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