Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Abstract Visible satellite imagery is widely used by operational weather forecast centers for tropical and extratropical cyclone analysis and marine forecasting. The absence of visible imagery at night can significantly degrade forecast capabilities, such as determining tropical cyclone center locations or tracking warm-topped convective clusters. This paper documents ProxyVis imagery, an infrared-based proxy for daytime visible imagery developed to address the lack of visible satellite imagery at night and the limitations of existing nighttime visible options. ProxyVis was trained on the VIIRS day/night band imagery at times close to the full moon using VIIRS IR channels with closely matching GOES-16/17/18, Himawari-8/9, and Meteosat-9/10/11 channels. The final operational product applies the ProxyVis algorithms to geostationary satellite data and combines daytime visible and nighttime ProxyVis data to create full-disk animated GeoProxyVis imagery. The simple versions of the ProxyVis algorithm enable its generation from earlier GOES and Meteosat satellite imagery. ProxyVis offers significant improvement over existing operational products for tracking nighttime oceanic low-level clouds. Further, it is qualitatively similar to visible imagery for a wide range of backgrounds and synoptic conditions and phenomena, enabling forecasters to use it without special training. ProxyVis was first introduced to National Hurricane Center (NHC) operations in 2018 and was found to be extremely useful by forecasters becoming part of their standard operational satellite product suite in 2019. Currently, ProxyVis implemented for GOES-16/18, Himawari-9, and Meteosat-9/10/11 is being used in operational settings and evaluated for transition to operations at multiple NWS offices and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Significance Statement This paper describes ProxyVis imagery, a new method for combining infrared channels to qualitatively mimic daytime visible imagery at nighttime. ProxyVis demonstrates that a simple linear regression can combine just a few commonly available infrared channels to develop a nighttime proxy for visible imagery that significantly improves a forecaster’s ability to track low-level oceanic clouds and circulation features at night, works for all current geostationary satellites, and is useful across a wide range of backgrounds and meteorological scenarios. Animated ProxyVis geostationary imagery has been operational at the National Hurricane Center since 2019 and is also currently being transitioned to operations at other NWS offices and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Radiographic comparison for identification is widely utilized. However, these methods are qualitative and subject to analyst ability to correctly read and interpret radiographs. With regards to infra-cranial radiographs, few studies have been conducted to explore the role of practitioner expertize on correct classification rates (CCRs). Here, we undertake two such studies using forensic anthropologists [American Board of Forensic Anthropology (ABFA) certified, practicing but not board-certified anthropologists, and chest radiograph comparison (CXR) anthropologists trained via the Defense POW/MIA Accounting Agency CXR competency training program] and compare their results to novices. To ensure participants only referred to the same skeletal morphology, we cropped radiographs to single bones. An array of four simulated antemortem radiographs was presented to each assessor with each postmortem radiograph. Assessors evaluated arrays for a correct match, which was always present, yielding a 25% rate for random correct selections. Study 1 used anteroposterior C7, posteroanterior second metacarpal, and lateral calcaneus radiographs (three arrays each for nine arrays total), which yielded 86, 81, 69, and 68% mean CCRs for CXR experts, ABFA anthropologists, non-ABFA anthropologists and novices, respectively. Study 2 used anteroposterior C7 and left clavicles (three arrays each for six arrays total), yielding mean CCRs of 100, 96, and 84% for CXR experts, ABFA anthropologists and novices, respectively. As reflected by the CCRs, expertise is clearly a factor for radiographic comparisons, evident not just between novices and anthropologists, but also between anthropologists. We recommend all radiographic comparison analysts be subject to competency/proficiency tests prior to their engagement for forensic casework.

In recent years, the use of diagnostic imaging in physical therapist practice in the United States has gained considerable interest. In several countries around the world and in the US military, patient direct referral for diagnostic imaging has been considered normative practice for decades. US physical therapy program accreditation standards now stipulate that diagnostic imaging content must be included in physical therapist educational curricula. The American Physical Therapy Association has made efforts to pursue practice authority for imaging referral. A recent review of state practice acts and other statutory language concluded that many states have no prohibitions against physical therapists referring for imaging studies. Additionally, physical therapists can now pursue certification as musculoskeletal sonographers. In light of these advances, and with a growing number of physical therapists serving patients who have not yet seen another health care provider, it may be helpful for those who have been actively involved in the use of imaging in physical therapist practice to provide their collective recommendations to serve as a guideline to those interested in incorporating this practice privilege. The purpose of this perspective article is to provide an overview of the key elements necessary for effective implementation of referral for imaging in physical therapist practice while emphasizing the cornerstone of effective communication.

Probit has not been applied to ancestry estimation in forensic anthropology. The goals of this study were to: (1) evaluate the performance of probit analysis as a classification tool for ancestry estimation using ordinal data and (2) expand our current understanding of human cranial variation for an understudied population. Multivariate probit models were used to classify the ancestral affiliation of Filipino crania using morphoscopic traits. Ancestral reference populations represented Africa, Asia, and Europe in a three-group model, with the addition of Hispanics in a four-group model. Posterior probabilities across these groups were interpreted as admixture proportions of an individual. Model performance was also evaluated for individuals with missing data. The overall correct classification rates for the three-group and four-group models were 72.1% and 68.6%, respectively. Filipinos classified as Asian 52.9% of the time using three ancestral reference groups and 48.6% using four groups. A large portion of Filipinos also classified as African. There were no significant differences in classification trends or accuracy rates between complete crania and crania with at least one missing variable. Multivariate probit models using morphoscopic traits perform well when populations are represented in both training and test samples. Probit can also accommodate individuals with missing data. Classifying Filipinos showed only moderate success. Filipinos are more phenotypically similar to Africans than the other Asian samples used here, but still affiliate most closely as Asian. Ancestry methods would benefit from including Filipinos as a reference sample given the additional variation they provide to the continental category of Asian.

To systematically search the literature for studies evaluating the typical presentation and testing that is performed for divers with inner ear symptoms and then to create a tool for clinicians when evaluating a diver with inner ear symptoms. Nine databases, including PubMed/MEDLINE were systematically searched through 31 January 2018. The PRISMA statement was followed. Three-hundred and two manuscripts were screened, 69 were downloaded and 21 met criteria to be included in this review. The articles were evaluated for symptomatic trends and initial evaluation work-up primarily focusing on inner-ear barotrauma (IEBt) and inner ear decompression sickness (inner ear DCS). The trends for IEBt were compared to typical inner ear DCS presentation based on large study inner ear DCS results consistent with the plethora of research available. Finally, the HOOYAH Tool was developed to assist the receiving provider to better determine the most likely diagnosis and thus initiate appropriate treatment. The HOOYAH Tool is comprised of the following: 1) H: hard to clear; 2) O: onset of symptoms; 3) O: otoscopic exam; 4) Y: your dive profile; 5) A: additional symptoms and 6) H: hearing. For each of these components, the typical presentation is described allowing the provider better to discern the correct diagnosis. The diagnosis of IEBt remains difficult to define short of visualization through surgical exploration. Early treatment is defined by conservative management with a subsequent observational period to determine symptomatic resolution and need for surgery. However, a similar differential diagnosis is inner ear DCS which requires early recompression. The HOOYAH tool provides a method for assisting the provider in forming a more confident decision regarding the underlying pathology and facilitation of the appropriate treatment.

Avoid legal pitfalls when you take a call from a discharged patient who asks for your professional advice about her treatment or condition.

Abstract The Systematic Approach Forecast Aid (SAFA) has been in use at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center since the 2000 western North Pacific season. SAFA is a system designed for determination of erroneous 72-h track forecasts through identification of predefined error mechanisms associated with numerical weather prediction models. A metric for the process is a selective consensus in which model guidance suspected to have 72-h error greater than 300 n mi (1 n mi = 1.85 km) is first eliminated prior to calculating the average of the remaining model tracks. The resultant selective consensus should then provide improved forecasts over the nonselective consensus. In the 5 yr since its introduction into JTWC operations, forecasters have been unable to produce a selective consensus that provides consistent improved guidance over the nonselective consensus. Also, the rate at which forecasters exercised the selective consensus option dropped from approximately 45% of all forecasts in 2000 to 3% in 2004.