Macaulay Development Trust

• Peat bogs have accumulated more atmospheric carbon (C) than any other terrestrial ecosystem today. Most of this C is associated with peat moss (Sphagnum) litter. Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition can decrease Sphagnum production, compromising the C sequestration capacity of peat bogs. The mechanisms underlying the reduced production are uncertain, necessitating multifactorial experiments. • We investigated whether glasshouse experiments are reliable proxies for field experiments for assessing interactions between N deposition and environment as controls on Sphagnum N concentration and production. We performed a meta-analysis over 115 glasshouse experiments and 107 field experiments. • We found that glasshouse and field experiments gave similar qualitative and quantitative estimates of changes in Sphagnum N concentration in response to N application. However, glasshouse-based estimates of changes in production--even qualitative assessments-- diverged from field experiments owing to a stronger N effect on production response in absence of vascular plants in the glasshouse, and a weaker N effect on production response in presence of vascular plants compared to field experiments. • Thus, although we need glasshouse experiments to study how interacting environmental factors affect the response of Sphagnum to increased N deposition, we need field experiments to properly quantify these effects.

Blanket peatlands are rain-fed mires that cover the landscape almost regardless of topography. The geographical extent of this type of peatland is highly sensitive to climate. We applied a global process-based bioclimatic envelope model, PeatStash, to predict the distribution of British blanket peatlands. The model captures the present areal extent (Kappa = 0.77) and is highly sensitive to both temperature and precipitation changes. When the model is run using the UKCIP02 climate projections for the time periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, the geographical distribution of blanket peatlands gradually retreats towards the north and the west. In the UKCIP02 high emissions scenario for 2071-2100, the blanket peatland bioclimatic space is ~84% smaller than contemporary conditions ; only parts of the west of Scotland remain inside this space. Increasing summer temperature is the main driver of the projected changes in areal extent. Simulations using 7 climate model outputs resulted in generally similar patterns of declining aereal extent of the bioclimatic space, although differing in degree. The results presented in this study should be viewed as a first step towards understanding the trends likely to affect the blanket peatland distribution in Great Britain. The eventual fate of existing blanket peatlands left outside their bioclimatic space remains uncertain.

Scots pine (<it>Pinus sylvestris</it> L.) is a foundation species in Scottish highland forests and a national icon. Due to heavy exploitation, the current native pinewood coverage represents a small fraction of the postglacial maximum. To reverse this decline, various schemes have been initiated to promote planting of new and expansion of old pinewoods. This includes the designation of seed zones for control of the remaining genetic resources. The zoning was based mainly on biochemical similarity among pinewoods but, by definition, neutral molecular markers do not reflect local phenotypic adaptation. Environmental variation within Scotland is substantial and it is not yet clear to what extent this has shaped patterns of adaptive differentiation among Scottish populations. Systematic, range-wide common environment trials can provide insights into the evolution of the native pinewoods, indicating how environment has influenced phenotypic variation and how variation is maintained. Careful design of such experiments can also provide data on the history and connectivity among populations, by molecular marker analysis. Together, phenotypic and molecular datasets from such trials can provide a robust basis for refining seed transfer guidelines for Scots pine in Scotland and should form the scientific basis for conservation action on this nationally important habitat.

Ecologists trying to understand the value of habitat to animals must first describe the value of resources contained in the habitat to animals and, second, they must describe spatial variation in resource quality at a resolution relevant to individual animal foraging. We addressed these issues in a study of koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus) in a Eucalyptus woodland. We measured beneficial and deterrent chemical characteristics as well as the palatability of trees using a near-infrared spectroscopic model based on direct feeding experiments. Tree use by koalas was influenced by tree size and foliar quality but was also context-dependent: trees were more likely to be visited if they were surrounded by small, unpalatable trees or by large, palatable trees. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and several mapping approaches demonstrated that foliar quality is spatially structured in the woodland at a scale relevant to foraging decisions by koalas and that the spatial structure is an important component of habitat quality.

The modelling of multivariate riverine water quality time series poses some challenging problems including: weak dependency between observations; nonlinearity; non-Normality; seasonality and missing data. We demonstrate that periodic multivariate Normal hidden Markov models (MNHMMs) are appropriate tools to analyse riverine water quality time series. We introduce a fully Bayesian inference procedure for this class of models, where the number of hidden states of the Markov process is unknown and reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) methods are developed. We present a case study using long-term dissolved inorganic nitrogen time series measured in three Scottish rivers. Our results show the strength of the hidden Markov multistate approach for analysing long-term multivariate riverine water quality time series. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Zusammenfassung. Zur Erklärung von nichtraucherschützendem Verhalten wurde ein erweitertes Normaktivationsmodell angewendet und an einer Stichprobe von 131 rauchenden Studierenden als Strukturgleichungsmodell geprüft. Die Modellgütekriterien zeigen, dass das Modell die empirischen Daten befriedigend beschreibt. Neben den wahrgenommenen Fähigkeiten zum Nichtraucherschutz sind für die Erklärung von selbstberichtetem rücksichtsvollem Rauchverhalten auch persönliche Normen signifikante Prädiktoren. Persönliche Normen werden hauptsächlich durch Problemwahrnehmung und Bewusstheit von Handlungskonsequenzen sowie die wahrgenommenen Verhaltenskosten beeinflusst. Die Ergebnisse werden im Hinblick auf Interventionen diskutiert.

Soil-plant potassium (K) dynamics were studied using a long-term field experiment in order to evaluate the plant performance and K delivering capacity of the soil parent material. Rye grass (Lolium perenne L.) based rotations on a loamy sand derived from granitic bedrock were studied over 30 years with two K-fertilisation regimes, nil (K0) and 65 kg K ha−1 yr−1. Mineralogical and chemical methods were combined to identify and quantify soil K resources including the partitioning of K between minerals. Two or three cuts were taken annually and herbage yield and composition together with exchangeable soil K were analysed. Herbage yield declined with time and significantly reduced when the K concentrations approached 1%. The grass K concentration also declined over time and stabilized at around 0.5–0.7% (dw) in K0 in all cuts. Input-output mass balances showed an accumulated net K off-take (deficit) of 1,100 kg ha−1, i.e. 35 kg ha−1 yr−1. With an exchangeable K pool of 100 kg ha−1 (in the rooting zone 0–40 cm) this indicated a substantial release of K from mineral sources, most probably biotite and hydrobiotite. Assuming a similar net off-take was continued then this particular mineralogical K source would be depleted within two centuries. The study illustrates the strength of combining long-term field experimental data with state of the art quantitative mineralogical methods in order to assess site-specific resources which can form a basis to evaluate the sustainability of different management practices.

This chapter contains sections titled: Introduction Hazard Identification Exposure Assessment Dose–Response Risk Characterization Assessment of Mixtures and Disparate Risks Conclusions References

This paper explores the interconnections and relative importance of seven determinants implicit in the development of sustainable tourism indicators. These determinants provide a framework for understanding the process of indicator selection for sustainable tourism. This research has suggested that some of the implicit determinants may be interconnected and some may be more important than others. The paper reports findings from twelve stakeholder groups in two Scottish National Parks which are engaged in developing sustainable tourism indicators. It is important for park authorities to be aware of the different views of stakeholder groups on the issues surrounding indicator selection and development and this research provided an opportunity for such groups to be consulted. The paper will examine the relative importance each group placed on the implicit determinants and consider possible reasons for between-group differences. Analysis will also focus on the existence of linkages between individual implicit determinants. The paper concludes that different typologies of stakeholder groups exist, affecting both the interpretation of, and importance attributed to, the determinants and that the framework as a whole serves to be more than the sum of its parts.