Natural History Museum

Understanding the drivers of biodiversity over time is a central goal in macroevolution. Yet, the relative contributions of biotic and abiotic mechanisms remain unclear, especially at broader phylogenetic and spatial scales. This study investigates how biotic (competition proxies) and abiotic (temperature) factors shaped Carnivora diversification across North America and Eurasia over the last 45 million years. Using a Bayesian framework, curated fossil data, and an expanded method to assess competition intensity at multiple spatial scales, we quantify speciation, extinction, and diversity patterns across 17 families. Our results show that competition significantly influences diversification on both continents. While competition can hinder speciation by saturating ecological niches, it may also foster diversity via character displacement and niche partitioning, especially under local spatial coexistence. At regional scales, abiotic factors-particularly cooling temperatures and habitat shifts-act as selective extinction drivers, disproportionately affecting specific regions of the body size traitspace and creating gaps. By integrating temporal and spatial perspectives, our study enhances understanding of how biotic interactions and environmental changes jointly shape biodiversity through deep time.

The SynopiidaeAustrosyrrhoe hamptonae sp. nov. and Syrrhoe manowitzae sp. nov. are morphologically described from the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, Pacific Ocean. Their descriptions are supplemented by molecular barcodes. Both Austrosyrrhoe and Syrrhoe have been recorded from only a few specimens in previous studies. The ten specimens reported here add to the sparse understanding of the Synopiidae. Also remarkable is the depth range of both genera, occurring in shallow waters of ~50 m to depths of ~5000 m. Prior to this study, the known depth range was less than 3000 m for Austrosyrrhoe and 3500 m for Syrrhoe. In the Clarion-Clipperton Zone the new species Austrosyrrhoe hamptonae sp. nov. was collected at 5109 m and Syrrhoe manowitzae sp. nov. from 4368 m, providing a significant increase in the maximum recorded depths for these genera.

ABSTRACT Raman spectroscopy is a valuable tool for detecting trace compounds over wide ranges of concentrations but is usually limited to qualitative analysis (e.g., identification) due to the difficulty of determining concentration from Raman peak intensity except under very controlled conditions. This study presents a new quantitative model, derived from first principles, that can be used to estimate the concentration ratio of binary mixtures from their Raman intensities over several orders of magnitude, fully accounting for any nonlinear behaviors introduced by factors such as overlapping peaks and self‐absorption. By training the model on experimental data of mixtures with known concentrations, the empirical parameters describing a particular mixture can be ascertained and then used to predict concentrations in further samples. The efficacy of the model is explored using synthetic datasets representing four scenarios depending on which compounds contribute to each peak. Bootstrapped model training can be used to consider the effects of noise, determine uncertainties for future predictions, and estimate the limits of detection and quantification for any given measurement. Finally, the model's efficacy is tested on experimental data for aqueous solutions of different organic nucleotides at concentration ratios between 0.1 and 1000 ppm, showing that the model works over 4 orders of magnitude and can be used to reliably predict the concentration ratio of test samples to within 0.1 orders of magnitude. This advanced model will improve our ability to estimate and assess concentrations in a wide range of mixed samples, even when their peaks overlap significantly.

The middle Permian represents a critical interval in therapsid evolution, when gorgonopsians emerged as some of the first specialized apex predators within terrestrial ecosystems. Despite their significance, the early diversification of Gorgonopsia in Gondwana remains poorly understood due to scarcity and fragmentary material. Here, we describe a nearly complete skull (BP/1/8260) with an occluded lower jaw from the lower Abrahamskraal Formation (Tapinocephalus Assemblage Zone). The specimen exhibits a distinctive combination of cranial features, including a transversely narrow snout, small orbital and temporal openings, V-shaped palatine bosses, and a vertically oriented occiput that distinguish it from all known gorgonopsians. Based on its unique morphology, a new taxon, Jirahgorgon ceto sp. nov., is established for this specimen. In our phylogenetic analysis, the new taxon forms a clade with Phorcys dubei, which is here named Phorcyidae fam. nov. Members of Phorcyidae are unique among basal African gorgonopsians in combining a vertical occiput and rubidgeine-like cranial proportions, indicating that large-bodied gorgonopsians were present in the Wordian and overturning notions that they were exclusively small carnivores until the Wuchiapingian. Basal skull length analyses indicate that body size evolution in Gorgonopsia, while largely random through time (Brownian motion evolutionary model), is nonetheless structured by shared ancestry. The discovery of Jirahgorgon illustrates the complexity of gorgonopsian evolution, showing an early appearance of large-bodied, robust morphotypes and highlighting the lower Abrahamskraal Formation as a key resource for understanding the initial radiation of theriodonts.

With biodiversity increasingly under pressure from human activities and global environmental change, decisive actions to halt and reverse its decline is essential. Global policy frameworks such as the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KM-GBF) offer guidance to governments and corporations by outlining clear goals and targets for achieving this transition. Effective implementation and monitoring of progress toward these goals require robust modelling tools that incorporate past trends and project future trajectories under different scenarios. Moreover, within the KM-GBF is the need to recognise clear recognition of diverse values of nature – such as those reflected in the Nature Futures Framework - to ensure that multiple worldviews are considered in locally-relevant contexts. Models incorporating different value perspectives provide important insights into how physical, environmental, and socio-economic interventions could support the synergistic and coherent implementation of the KM-GBF across sectors and value systems. However, there remains no representative accounting of models that can inform holistically on the KM-GBF goals and targets. Here we present a review of the current biodiversity modelling landscape around 60 models identified through a multi-evidence-based approach. We evaluate current capacities, strengths and limitations, and adaptability of these models in providing a toolbox for modelling and projecting biodiversity change for policy and decision-making processes. Through this review and analyses, we found that biodiversity and nature’s contribution to people (NCP) focussed goals (i.e., goal A and B) and biodiversity and NCP-centred targets (i.e., targets 1- 8) are well informed by indicators produced by the models. However, there remains critical gaps in informing the ecological restoration, genetic diversity and invasive alien species. The review also presented opportunities for model intercomparison and complementary modelling with common and comparable metrics/variables produced and shared across the models. Major shortcomings relate to the lack of indicators on drivers that can inform on how policy options were reflected in model parameterization and under-representation of cultural values of nature. Future developments can accelerate progress through integrative scenario analysis and improved detection and attribution capabilities for more robust predictions of how different future pathways affect may progress and synergize in responding to evolving societal and environmental challenges.

Abstract The fossil record of coelacanths (Actinistia) is diminished by several nominal gaps that obscure vital information pertaining to the clade's evolutionary history. Latimeriidae, the family that includes the extant coelacanth Latimeria , in addition to the Cenozoic, has an outstanding missing gap of 50 myr during the Mesozoic, with no records of this family from the Lower Cretaceous. Upper Cretaceous latimeriids are morphologically derived and show close anatomical similarities with Latimeria , although an understanding of their macroevolutionary trends, timings of key character acquisitions, and gross patterns in their skeletal evolution are largely obscured by a lack of diagnosed Lower Cretaceous taxa. Using x‐ray computed tomography (XCT), we here report the first diagnostic latimeriid from the Lower Cretaceous: Macropoma gombessae sp. nov. based on an articulated cranium and associated fragments of the post‐cranial skeleton from the Albian Gault Formation of southern England. The new species demonstrates a drastic shift in dermal ornamentation between the Lower and Upper Cretaceous, including an unusual narrowing and change in placement of the supraorbital sensory canal within the supraorbitals, and increased reduction in the dentary leading towards the morphologies present in Latimeria . Phylogenetic analysis resolves the new species as sister to Macropoma , and together are sister to a clade containing Swenzia and Latimeria . We additionally reappraise ‘ Macropoma ’ willemoesii (Upper Jurassic, Germany) as not belonging to Macropoma , indicating M. gombessae as the stratigraphically oldest species of this historic and evolutionarily novel genus.

Leafmines found on Genista berberidea Lange in northern Portugal led to the discovery of two new species: Phyllonorycter berberidella Nunes, Laštůvka & Laštůvka sp. nov. (Lepidoptera: Gracillariidae) and Achrysocharoides genistae Hansson sp. nov. (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae). The moth is described based on specimens reared from the host plant, and the wasp from individuals that emerged from the moth larvae. Notes on the conservation status of the host plant at the type locality and a key to related Achrysocharoides species are presented.

The marine Grippia bonebed from Vikinghøgda Formation, Lower Triassic, Svalbard is composed of scattered skeletal remains, teeth and coprolites. From this, five coprolite morphotypes have been identified and described. In this study 97 coprolites were examined and classified based on their morphology and inclusions. Thin sections, scanning electron microscope (SEM) and micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) were used to analyze the inclusions revealing skeletal material, fish scales and notably the first observations of invertebrates in this locality. Among the invertebrate components were sponge spicules, a fragment of a cephalopod shell and numerous onychites. Potential coprolite producers are evaluated and likely include chondrichthyans, osteichthyes, ichthyopterygians and temnospondyls. Additionally, this research provides a CT-scanning method for identifying low-density inclusions such as onychites and contribute to a better understanding of the marine Early Triassic paleoecosystem and food web on Svalbard.

Abstract Antarctic lakes and surrounding habitats are natural laboratories for studying microbial ecology in extreme environments, yet assembly and dispersal across these systems remain poorly understood. We analyzed bacterial (16S rRNA) and eukaryotic (18S rRNA) communities across benthic lake mats, pond mats, and desiccated mats around Lake Untersee, East Antarctica. Both domains showed significant environmental differentiation with stochastic assembly dominating, but eukaryotes exhibited stronger habitat-specific structuring. Core microbiomes revealed contrasting strategies: bacteria showed broad colonization with few dominant taxa, while eukaryotes maintained smaller cores anchored by Adineta vaga . Cyanobacterial indicators demonstrated complete strain-level turnover despite uniform phylum dominance. Dispersal patterns diverged strongly: prokaryotes exhibited substantial cross-habitat exchange (28-61%) while eukaryotes showed minimal dispersal (2-16%). Distance-decay relationships revealed significant spatial structuring (bacterial r=0.316-0.70; eukaryotic r=0.43-0.84). Cross-domain networks shifted from facilitative in ponds (65% positive) to competitive under desiccation (54% negative), suggesting resource limitation overrides facilitation at extremes. Functional predictions highlighted habitat specialization: lakes enriched in biogeochemical cycling, desiccated mats in stress tolerance, ponds in CRISPR genes. These findings reveal divergent strategies shaped by environmental filtering, dispersal limitation, and viral interactions, with implications for ecosystem connectivity and resilience. Importance Antarctic lake ecosystems serve as natural laboratories for understanding microbial community assembly under extreme conditions, yet connectivity between aquatic and terrestrial habitats remains poorly characterized. This study reveals fundamentally divergent ecological strategies between bacterial and eukaryotic communities across Lake Untersee’s contrasting environments. While bacteria maintain broad dispersal networks (28-61% cross-habitat exchange) with strain-level habitat specialization, eukaryotes exhibit strong dispersal limitation (2-16% exchange) despite occupying adjacent habitats. Most strikingly, cross-domain interaction networks shift from predominantly facilitative in ephemeral ponds (65% positive associations) to competitive under desiccation stress (54% negative associations), directly challenging the stress gradient hypothesis that predicts cooperation dominates in extreme environments. Combined with habitat-specific functional specialization—from biogeochemical cycling in lakes to stress tolerance in desiccated mats—these findings provide a mechanistic framework for predicting ecosystem connectivity, resilience, and responses to climate-driven habitat transitions in polar regions.