Office of Polar Programs

Operating in the polar regions is growing increasingly important due to expanding research needs, emerging economic opportunities and efforts to protect national sovereignty.Ships operating in the Arctic and Antarctic face heightened risks and more severe consequences in the event of an accident due to sea ice, icebergs, harsh sea states, low visibility and extreme temperatures. These hazards are compounded by sparse infrastructures and remoteness, with immediate assistances not readily available during emergencies.While climate change is quickly reducing the amount of sea ice, this does not necessarily translate to a reduction in risk in the short-term. On the contrary, uncertainly due to changing sea ice conditions, and an increase in icebergs due to melting glaciers, can increase risk.The operational sea ice community provides information to lessen risk to life, property and the environment and to improve operational efficiency. That information is used by ships to avoid or navigate through sea ice, by ship operators in planning polar voyages, and by policy makers to assess the impact of climate change on future decisions regarding polar operations. Beyond safety, these services also increase operational efficiency by enabling optimized routing, reduced fuel consumption, and shorter transit times.The information provided by the operational sea ice community comes from in-situ measurements, satellite earth observation data, and sophisticated models of the atmosphere, oceans, sea ice, and icebergs. These data streams have historically been assembled and interpreted by highly trained human analysts. Given the rapid increase in the amount of data that needs to be analyzed and the constraints on workforces due to government fiscal reductions, their work is increasingly being assisted by artificial intelligence. Furthermore, because sea ice is highly dynamic and can change within a matter of hours, automation and AI are indispensable for providing real-time and forecast information.The operational sea ice workflows have many of the attributes of an Earth System Digital Twin:Utilization of detailed digital models of relevant earth systems (atmosphere, ocean, sea ice),Continuous incorporation of near-real-time data from in-situ sensors and earth observation satellites,Use of artificial intelligence and machine learning,Generation of predictive models and forecasts, andProvision of advance analytics and decision support tools to allow end-users to optimize their choices.In fact, much of the information both used and generated by the operational sea ice community is available in Destination Earth, the initiative of the European Commission to develop a digital twin of the Earth.This presentation will examine the provision of operational sea ice information as an example of the application of digital twins to provide actionable insights on climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction. It will present current capabilities, AI-enabled workflows, and lessons learned from operational implementation, with a focus on supporting safe and sustainable polar shipping.

Abstract The conductive heat flux (CHF) from the ocean to the snow/sea ice‐atmosphere interface through sea ice is a crucial component of the surface energy budget over the sea ice‐covered Arctic Ocean. The CHF is influenced by surface skin temperature, sea ice thickness, and depth of snow on sea ice. This study uses monthly mean surface skin temperature from ERA5 reanalysis, and sea ice thickness and snow depth from the Pan‐Arctic Ice‐Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System to derive the means and changes of CHF over the Arctic Ocean from 1979 to 2022. The findings reveal that CHFs are generally positive (from flux to the surface from below) from November to March and negative from June to August. CHFs are large in peripheral seas with thin sea ice and low snow depth, and small over pack ice with thick sea ice and snow. The thinning of sea ice and snow on sea ice contributes to increasing CHF, while rising surface skin temperatures lead to decreasing CHF. Overall, CHF increases from 1979 to 2022, primarily driven by the thinning of sea ice. The magnitude of CHF changes during this period is comparable to or higher than those in sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, and net longwave/thermal radiation flux at the surface from November to March over the peripheral seas. A better representation of sea ice thickness and snow depth over sea ice in the reanalysis would possibly improve the depiction of CHF and surface temperature changes.

Digital health technologies are pivotal for strengthening health systems and accelerating progress toward Universal Health Coverage (UHC). In Nigeria, while digital health interventions have been widely introduced, disparities in maturity and effectiveness are evident across different states. This study comprehensively assesses digital health maturity across ten Nigerian states, leveraging the Global Digital Health Index (GDHI) framework and the UN Foundation/ICT4SOML maturity model. Employing a mixed-methods approach that includes key informant interviews, document reviews, and quantitative scoring, the analysis evaluates seven core domains: leadership and governance, strategy and investment, legislation and compliance, standards and interoperability, infrastructure, workforce, and services and applications. The analysis also situates surveyed states along a maturity spectrum from experimentation to mainstreaming. Findings reveal substantial variations in digital health readiness among the ten states. Lagos emerged as the most advanced, demonstrating robust governance structures, interoperability initiatives, and strategic investments in ICT infrastructure. In contrast, states like Gombe, Niger, Bauchi, Sokoto, Borno, Nasarawa and Yobe were the least matured, hindered by weak workforce capacity, poor infrastructure, and a lack of standardized interoperability. The assessment further identifies heavy reliance on donor-driven projects, limited state ownership, and fragmented governance as key barriers to sustainable digital health implementation. To address these gaps, the study recommends establishing a National Digital Health Observatory for benchmarking and peer learning, alongside targeted state-level capacity building and infrastructure investments. The findings highlight the urgent need for stronger political commitment, structured governance, and the domestication of national digital health policies at the sub-national level. By mapping states on a digital health maturity spectrum, this study offers a clear framework for targeted interventions, optimized resource allocation, and accelerated progress toward a resilient, interoperable digital health ecosystem across Nigeria's states.

Background: Breeding pelagic seabirds feed over wide areas. Their diet and space use can therefore provide proxies for otherwise be difficult to observe environmental conditions but interpretation of these proxies requires knowledge of foraging range. Antarctic sea ice regulates global climate, but a paucity of data on its past extent causes uncertainty in climate reconstruction and prediction. Deposits of stomach oils, produced defensively by snow petrels Pagodroma nivea (near-obligate sea-ice foragers), reflect sea ice conditions, sometimes over tens of millennia, but spatial interpretation of these biological archives is hampered by lack of data on foraging range, and how this varies seasonally, among colonies and with sex. Methods: We tracked 34 and 60 snow petrels using light-based geolocators and GPS loggers, respectively to estimate foraging ranges at three colonies located 180-200 km inland in Dronning Maud Land. We tested whether foraging latitude is associated with ice edge latitude, estimated via satellite remote sensing. We then projected potential foraging ranges for all known colonies on the study area to reexamine assumptions made in paleoclimate studies. Results: During most breeding stages, and across breeding seasons, core home ranges were centred approximately 2 degrees south of the outer sea-ice edge and tracked this habitat as it receded during the spring melt. Females were approximately 7% lighter than males but foraged at similar distances and in similar areas. Foraging ranges differed little between colonies but substantially between breeding stages. For example, median range was ~1,400 km during the pre-laying exodus vs. ~550 km during brood-guard. Conclusions: Snow petrel stomach-oil deposits potentially integrate environmental conditions over greater and more seasonally variable areas than previously assumed, probably with a bias towards conditions in the outer Marginal Ice Zone during the early summer when stomach oil deposition due to nest competition is likely greatest. Projected potential home ranges of snow petrel colonies in the western Weddell Sea suggest that breeding is limited by access to foraging habitat, such as coastal polynyas. We hypothesise that as sea ice fluctuated over previous glacial-interglacial cycles, this also regulated breeding distribution across the region.

Abstract Maternal denning plays a vital role in the development and survival of highly altricial polar bear cubs by providing protection from external conditions. The denning period remains challenging to study and monitor because polar bear dens are often remote and difficult to access. Denning is typically inferred from satellite telemetry data, yet the accuracy of these measures in capturing important denning behaviors that are relevant to management and monitoring is unclear. We installed cameras at 13 den sites in Svalbard, Norway, over a 6‐year period, 9 of which yielded observations of behavior and phenology of polar bears at den emergence, and we compared these observations with denning behavior inferred from telemetry data (location, temperature, and activity levels) from satellite collars worn by denning bears. We next developed Bayesian generalized linear models to accurately predict denning behaviors (i.e., observations from cameras) from collar sensor data. From the camera data, mean date of observed den breakout was 9 March (SD = ±6.5 days, n = 7) and departure from the den site occurred 12.1 days later (±10.1 days, n = 7). Estimates of den breakout date based on joint analysis of collar temperature and activity data indicated breakout occurred on average 0.7 days later (±11.4 days, n = 7) and estimates based on collar temperature thresholds alone indicated breakout occurred 4.0 days later (±6.6 days, n = 7) compared to the camera data. Location data from collars suggested departure occurred on average 3.2 days later (±7.0 days, n = 7) than camera observations. We found that the probability a bear had broken out of the den could be accurately predicted from changes in collar temperature, activity, and ordinal date (e.g., a 1 SD decrease in collar temperature increased the probability of breakout by 18.5 percentage points). Post‐den emergence behavior was influenced by external environmental temperature, time of day, and the amount of time since den breakout; bears were more likely to emerge and stay outside longer given warmer temperatures and increasing time since den breakout. Our study highlights the importance of the post‐emergence period for cub acclimatization and development and provides new monitoring tools to study polar bear denning behavior, which is increasingly vulnerable to disruption in a rapidly changing Arctic.

Abstract The relevance of education and outreach (E&O) activities about the Antarctic Treaty has been recognized at the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meetings (ATCM) and at the Committee for Environmental Protection (CEP). This study examines the key topics and the target audiences detailed in papers submitted to the ATCM on E&O. Since the Antarctic Treaty entered into force in 1961, a total of 216 ATCM papers on E&O have been produced. The number of papers has increased substantially since the mid-1990s. ‘Science’ (76.9%) and ‘Wildlife/Biodiversity/Environment’ (75.5%) were the most addressed topics in these papers, while the ‘Public’ (81.0%) and those attending ‘Schools’ (69.0%) are the main target audiences. ‘Science’ in ATCM papers increased ~120-fold from 1961–1997 to 2015–2023, while ATCM papers discussing engagement with the ‘Public’ increased ~40-fold during the same period. ‘Climate change’ was first mentioned in 2006, and the number of papers per year increased fourfold by 2015–2023. This study shows the increasing interest in E&O through time, addressing key topics to relevant audiences related to the Antarctic region. From an educational perspective, attention should be paid to emerging topics (e.g. equity, diversity and inclusion), and the engagement of early-career professionals and educators should be made a priority.

Many wildlife species are live captured, sampled, and released; for polar bears (Ursus maritimus) capture often requires chemical immobilization via helicopter darting. Polar bears reduce their activity for approximately 4 days after capture, likely reflecting stress recovery. To better understand this stress, we quantified polar bear activity (via collar‐mounted accelerometers) and body temperature (via loggers in the body core [Tabd] and periphery [Tper]) during 2–6 months of natural behavior, and during helicopter recapture and immobilization. Recapture induced bouts of peak activity higher than those that occurred during natural behavior for 2 of 5 bears, greater peak Tper for 3 of 6 bears, and greater peak Tabd for 1 of 6 bears. High body temperature (>39.0°C) occurred in Tper for 3 of 6 individuals during recapture and 6 of 6 individuals during natural behavior, and in Tabd for 2 of 6 individuals during recapture and 3 of 6 individuals during natural behavior. Measurements of Tabd and Tper correlated with rectal temperatures measured after immobilization, supporting the use of rectal temperatures for monitoring bear response to capture. Using a larger dataset (n = 66 captures), modeling of blood biochemistry revealed that maximum ambient temperature during recapture was associated with a stress leukogram (7–26% decline in percent lymphocytes, 12–21% increase in percent neutrophils) and maximum duration of helicopter operations had a similar but smaller effect. We conclude that polar bear activity and body temperature during helicopter capture are similar to that which occurs during the most intense events of natural behavior; high body temperature, especially in warm capture conditions, is a key concern; additional study of stress leukograms in polar bears is needed; and additional data collection regarding capture operations would be useful.

Abstract To arrive at holistic policy solutions, decision-makers require comprehensive and comprehensible decision support tools based on coherent science-based assessments (Tesar C, Science 353(6306):1368–1370, 2016). The actors involved in decision-making in the Bering Strait (BeSR) and Barents Sea (BaSR) Regions include representatives from all levels of government, NGOs and other civil society organizations, the private sector, and Indigenous and local residents. As consistently acknowledged in the previous chapters, holistic decision-making in both regions is often hindered by a lack of dialogue and understanding among these actors. In this chapter, we address the importance of inclusive and informed decision-making and identify key skills and experiences necessary for early-career scientists situated in the classic science space to communicate decision-support tools to decision-makers (Table 14.1). In the context of this paper, “classic science” represents traditional academic research and training programs, which are bounded by disciplinary silos. We ground our recommendations to early-career scientists and the institutions shaping their development in response to the broad emerging issues currently facing decision-makers in the BeSR and BaSR.

We report the synthesis of the first stable, solution-processable and photocrosslinkable hybrid organic/inorganic titanium dioxide nanorods as ‘hairy rods’ coated with phosphonate ligands with photoreactive coumarin groups located in a terminal position. The relationships between the chemical structure of the diethyl-ω-[(7-oxycoumaryl)-n-alkyl]phosphonate ligands on the ligand exchange rate (LER) and the solubility of the resultant ligand-stabilized titanium dioxide nanorods in organic solvents are elucidated. These TiO2 nanorods, with an organic ligand coating, are short enough (aspect ratio = 5–8) to be dissolved in chlorobenzene at high concentrations, but long enough to form lyotropic nematic liquid crystals. These colloidal solutions are used to deposit a thin, uniform layer of hybrid organic/inorganic TiO2 nanorods with their long axes in the plane of a flat, smooth substrate through a self-organization process. Standard photolithographic patterning creates an insoluble dielectric layer of the desired thickness, smoothness and uniformity and with a dielectric constant of sufficient magnitude, k = 8, suitable for the fabrication of multilayer, plastic electronic devices using solution-based fabrication techniques, such as ink-jet printing, used in roll-to-roll manufacturing.