Swedish Prison and Probation Service

Abstract AimsTo study associations between intellectual disability (ID) and sexual and violent offending among individuals subject to pre-trial forensic psychiatric assessment. To investigate sentences following pre-trial forensic psychiatric assessment in offenders with and without ID.MethodsA population-based observational study using data from pre-trial forensic psychiatric assessments in Sweden (1997–2013), the Swedish National Crime Register and several other Swedish national registers. The study population consisted of 7450 offenders (87% men, 13% women) who were subject to forensic psychiatric assessment in 1997–2013, of whom 481 (6.5%) were clinically assessed as having ID.ResultsID offenders were more likely than non-ID offenders to have a sexual crime as an index crime [26.2v. 11.5%, adjusted odds ratio (OR) 2.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.02–3.58] as well as previous convictions regarding sexual offending (10.4v. 5.6%, adj OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.70–3.12). These associations were restricted to male offenders; sexual offending was uncommon among women. Comorbid attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder reduced the association between ID and sexual offending (adj OR 2.7v. 3.1,p= 0.017), while comorbid autism spectrum disorder had no significant influence on the association (adj OR 2.7v. 3.0,p= 0.059). Violent crime was equally common among ID and non-ID offenders. Offenders with ID were more likely than non-ID offenders to be sentenced to forensic psychiatric care or community sanctions and measures (such as probation, conditional sentences or fines) than to prison; however, 15% of individuals who received an ID diagnosis during the forensic psychiatric assessment were sentenced to prison. Previous criminal convictions, concurrent antisocial personality disorders and substance use disorders were associated with a higher probability of a prison sentence among offenders with ID.ConclusionsSexual crime is overrepresented among offenders with ID compared to offenders with other mental disorders than ID in forensic psychiatric contexts. ID offenders become subject to forensic psychiatric care and forensic psychiatric services need evidence-based treatment programmes for offenders with ID. In addition, there is a need for early intervention strategies suitable for disability services and special education schools, in order to address the complex needs of individuals with ID and prevent sexual and violent offending.

More than 30 million people are released from prison worldwide every year, who include a group at high risk of perpetrating interpersonal violence. Because there is considerable inconsistency and inefficiency in identifying those who would benefit from interventions to reduce this risk, we developed and validated a clinical prediction rule to determine the risk of violent offending in released prisoners. We did a cohort study of a population of released prisoners in Sweden. Through linkage of population-based registers, we developed predictive models for violent reoffending for the cohort. First, we developed a derivation model to determine the strength of prespecified, routinely obtained criminal history, sociodemographic, and clinical risk factors using multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression, and then tested them in an external validation. We measured discrimination and calibration for prediction of our primary outcome of violent reoffending at 1 and 2 years using cutoffs of 10% for 1-year risk and 20% for 2-year risk. We identified a cohort of 47 326 prisoners released in Sweden between 2001 and 2009, with 11 263 incidents of violent reoffending during this period. We developed a 14-item derivation model to predict violent reoffending and tested it in an external validation (assigning 37 100 individuals to the derivation sample and 10 226 to the validation sample). The model showed good measures of discrimination (Harrell's c-index 0·74) and calibration. For risk of violent reoffending at 1 year, sensitivity was 76% (95% CI 73-79) and specificity was 61% (95% CI 60-62). Positive and negative predictive values were 21% (95% CI 19-22) and 95% (95% CI 94-96), respectively. At 2 years, sensitivity was 67% (95% CI 64-69) and specificity was 70% (95% CI 69-72). Positive and negative predictive values were 37% (95% CI 35-39) and 89% (95% CI 88-90), respectively. Of individuals with a predicted risk of violent reoffending of 50% or more, 88% had drug and alcohol use disorders. We used the model to generate a simple, web-based, risk calculator (OxRec) that is free to use. We have developed a prediction model in a Swedish prison population that can assist with decision making on release by identifying those who are at low risk of future violent offending, and those at high risk of violent reoffending who might benefit from drug and alcohol treatment. Further assessments in other populations and countries are needed. Wellcome Trust, the Swedish Research Council, and the Swedish Research Council for Health, Working Life and Welfare.

Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is associated with bipolar disorder and schizophrenia, and it has been suggested that combined bipolar disorder and ADHD is aetiologically distinct from the pure disorders. To clarify whether ADHD shares genetic and environmental factors with bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. By linking longitudinal Swedish national registers, we identified 61 187 persons with ADHD (the proband group) and their first- and second-degree relatives, and matched them with a control group of people without ADHD and their corresponding relatives. Conditional logistic regression was used to determine the risks of bipolar disorder and schizophrenia in the relatives of the two groups. First-degree relatives of the ADHD proband group were at increased risk of both bipolar disorder (odds ratio (OR) = 1.84-2.54 for parents, offspring and full siblings) and schizophrenia (OR = 1.71-2.22 for parents, offspring and full siblings). The risks of bipolar disorder and schizophrenia among second-degree relatives were substantially lower than among full siblings. These findings suggest that the co-occurrence of ADHD and bipolar disorder as well as ADHD and schizophrenia is due to shared genetic factors, rather than representing completely aetiologically distinct subsyndromes.

Epilepsy and traumatic brain injury are common neurological conditions, with general population prevalence estimates around 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively. Although both illnesses are associated with various adverse outcomes, and expert opinion has suggested increased criminality, links with violent behaviour remain uncertain. We combined Swedish population registers from 1973 to 2009, and examined associations of epilepsy (n = 22,947) and traumatic brain injury (n = 22,914) with subsequent violent crime (defined as convictions for homicide, assault, robbery, arson, any sexual offense, or illegal threats or intimidation). Each case was age and gender matched with ten general population controls, and analysed using conditional logistic regression with adjustment for socio-demographic factors. In addition, we compared cases with unaffected siblings. Among the traumatic brain injury cases, 2,011 individuals (8.8%) committed violent crime after diagnosis, which, compared with population controls (n = 229,118), corresponded to a substantially increased risk (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 3.3, 95% CI: 3.1-3.5); this risk was attenuated when cases were compared with unaffected siblings (aOR = 2.0, 1.8-2.3). Among individuals with epilepsy, 973 (4.2%) committed a violent offense after diagnosis, corresponding to a significantly increased odds of violent crime compared with 224,006 population controls (aOR = 1.5, 1.4-1.7). However, this association disappeared when individuals with epilepsy were compared with their unaffected siblings (aOR = 1.1, 0.9-1.2). We found heterogeneity in violence risk by age of disease onset, severity, comorbidity with substance abuse, and clinical subgroups. Case ascertainment was restricted to patient registers. In this longitudinal population-based study, we found that, after adjustment for familial confounding, epilepsy was not associated with increased risk of violent crime, questioning expert opinion that has suggested a causal relationship. In contrast, although there was some attenuation in risk estimates after adjustment for familial factors and substance abuse in individuals with traumatic brain injury, we found a significantly increased risk of violent crime. The implications of these findings will vary for clinical services, the criminal justice system, and patient charities.

The Child and Adolescent Twin Study in Sweden (CATSS) is an ongoing longitudinal twin study targeting all twins born in Sweden since July 1, 1992. Since 2004, parents of twins are interviewed regarding the children's somatic and mental health and social environment in connection with their 9th or 12th birthdays (CATSS-9/12). By January 2010, 8,610 parental interviews concerning 17,220 twins had been completed, with an overall response rate of 80%. At age 15 (CATSS-15) and 18 (CATSS-18), twins and parents complete questionnaires that, in addition to assessments of somatic and mental health, include measures of personality development and psychosocial adaptation. Twin pairs in CATSS-9/12 with one or both twins screening positive for autism spectrum disorders, attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder, tic disorders, developmental coordination disorder, learning disorders, oppositional defiant disorder, conduct disorder, obsessive-compulsive disorder, and/or eating problems have been followed with in-depth questionnaires on family, social environment and personality, and subsequently by clinical assessments at age 15 together with randomly selected population controls, including 195 clinically assessed twin pairs from the first 2 year cohorts (CATSS-15/DOGSS). This article describes the cohorts and study groups, data collection, and measures used. Prevalences, distributions, heritability estimates, ages at onset, and sex differences of mental health problems in the CATSS-9/12, that were analyzed and found to be overall comparable to those of other clinical and epidemiological studies. The CATSS study has the potential of answering important questions on the etiology of childhood mental health problems and their role in the development of later adjustment problems.

In January 2006 the Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe adopted Recommendation (2006) 2. The Recommendation contains the revised European Prison Rules. A new Rule 50 requires that prisoners be allowed and encouraged to discuss matters relating to the general conditions of imprisonment with prison administrations. This article examines existing legislation on this question in the member States of the Council of Europe and the administrative instructions for putting this legislation into practice. The results of prisoner participation in practice in 26 prisons in England and Wales are described. The contribution of prisoner councils to a prison climate that helps prisoners to address their criminal behaviour is considered. The use of prisoner councils is also considered in relation to the inspections of the Council of Europe’s Committee for the Prevention of Torture and Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment (CPT). Essential next steps for enlarging practice and encouraging research are presented.