Zhejiang Environmental Monitoring Center

Uncertainty is an inherent part of geoscience research and arises at multiple stages of the scientific process, from data collection and modelling to analysis and interpretation. In recent years, growing attention has been devoted to uncertainty quantification and assessment, alongside increasing recognition of the importance of uncertainty communication. These aspects are closely linked, as robust characterization of uncertainty provides an essential basis for transparent communication within the scientific community and beyond it.Communicating uncertainty not only plays a key role in improving the understanding of how scientific knowledge is produced, but can also help to foster trust by increasing transparency and contextualizing results. Nevertheless, reluctance to explicitly assess and communicate uncertainty persists, particularly when addressing non-expert audiences. This challenge is especially relevant in the context of natural hazard risk assessment and management: Here, adequate communication of uncertainties can add particularly valuable information for decision-making, risk governance, and a better understanding of the risks at hand among public audiences.This contribution presents an exploratory, database-driven overview of the scientific literature on uncertainty communication in geoscience, with a particular focus on natural hazards. Using structured queries in the Web of Science database, we examine publication trends over time, disciplinary distributions, thematic emphases, and possible blind spots. Keyword combinations range from general terms such as “uncertainty communication” and “multi-hazard communication” to more specific queries combining uncertainty, communication, and individual natural hazards (e.g., floods, earthquakes, droughts).Preliminary results indicate that uncertainty communication spans a broad range of scientific categories, while the level of attention varies substantially across hazard types, with flood-related studies being more prominent than others. Initial findings also suggest that multi-hazard uncertainty communication remains comparatively underrepresented, despite the increasing emphasis on multi-hazard and multi-risk assessments in recent research and policy frameworks. The growing volume of publications further highlights the need for systematic approaches to literature mapping, as well as the potential role of data-driven and AI-assisted tools in supporting such analyses.This research was partially funded by the European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (ECHO) of the European Commission (EC) through the VOLCAN project (ref. 101193100) and by the 2024 Research Prize of the Dr. K. H. Eberle Foundation to Mohadjer, Pelzer and Dietrich.

Abstract In coastal areas, projected increases in the amplitude of the sea level seasonal cycle will lead to the intensification of coastal flood hazards. Conversely, projected decreases in the amplitude may act to suppress flood hazards in some regions, partially offsetting the impact of sea level rise. Simulations of the sea level seasonal cycle by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models suggest changes up to ±30% are projected under a high emission scenario. We demonstrate that a currently unaccounted increase of 5–10 cm in the sea level seasonal cycle will increase the frequency of extremes from once in 20 years to once in 10 years. However, the sea level seasonal cycle amplitudes in CMIP6 models are underestimated compared to seasonal variability observed by satellite altimetry for almost all coastlines, suggesting that future changes might be underestimated, leading to a large impact on extreme sea levels in coastal areas. Including the changes in the future sea level seasonal cycle will advance future projections of sea level extremes and contribute to the crucial decisions about adaptation in coastal areas.

Solubility still plays an important role in the field of drug development, purification, absorption, and delivery. In this work, the diclofenac (DIC) solubility in 1,4-dioxane, acetone, 2-butanone, acetonitrile, ethyl acetate, cyclohexane, methanol, ethanol, 1-propanol, 1-butanol, 2-propanol, water, and ethanol/acetone + water was determined using the isothermal saturation method at 278.15–318.15 K. The solubility regularity, solvent effect, solvation behavior, and model correlation were discussed. DIC solubility increased with rising temperature and exhibited different rates of increase in various solvents (or cosolvent compositions). The analysis indicated that DIC solubility showed a strong dependence on the solvent polarity, cohesive energy density, and viscosity. The solvent effect quantified by the Kamlet and Taft linear solvation energy relationship (KAT-LSER) model suggested that the contributions were 57.80 and 42.20% from solute–solvent interactions and solvent–solvent interactions, respectively. Thus, hydrogen bond acceptor (HBA) interactions and nonspecific dipolarity and polarizability dominated DIC dissolution. Afterward, solvation behavior analysis revealed positive δ values, suggesting that local ethanol/acetone was enriched around the DIC molecules. This demonstrates that DIC was preferentially solvated locally by ethanol/acetone. Additionally, model correlation revealed that the highest observed relative average deviation and root-mean-square deviation were 3.10% and 2.91 × 10–4, respectively. Consequently, the Apelbat, λh, Jouyban–Acree, and Apelbat–Jouyban–Acree models can accurately correlate the DIC solubility data.

Abstract Fiddler crabs are common intertidal crustaceans with significant ecological and research value. In recent years, human activities have increasingly impacted intertidal zones. Habitat elements such as sediment particle size and vegetation cover may influence fiddler crab burrowing behaviour. Crab burrows are crucial for survival and closely linked to fiddler crab distribution. Therefore, the changes in these habitat elements may have altered the distribution of fiddler crabs. To better understand the mechanisms of habitat effects on fiddler crab distribution, further research is essential. This study focuses on Tubuca arcuata along the northern coast of Hangzhou Bay, China, employing field experiments and observations to examine the effects of three habitat types (bare mudflat, bare sandflat, and vegetated mudflat) on burrowing and other behaviours of T. arcuata . The results show that burrow density in vegetated mudflats is significantly higher than in the other two habitats, likely due to favourable soil compactness, cohesive particles, and root support for burrowing. In contrast, bare sandflats exhibit extremely low burrow density, requiring prolonged burrowing efforts and triggering distinct “chimney” building behaviour. These results are possibly due to poor sediment cohesiveness, low plasticity, and excessive soil compactness. Additionally, observations of other behaviour show that waving behaviour occurs more frequently on bare mudflats but are suppressed in vegetated mudflats, potentially due to visual signal obstruction. Aggregations of T. arcuata in vegetated mudflats may intensify intraspecific competition, leading to more frequent aggressive and defensive behaviours. This study can provide a reference for habitat research on other intertidal burrowing crab species.