수산물 안전의 비경제적요인이 국가간 수산물 교역에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

Comments on Assessment of the Trade Integration Pattern Between the Russian Federation and East/Southeast Asian Economies Using the Panel Gravity Framework

This paper analyzes the implication of economic structural change and dietary transformation on changing patterns of agri-food trade among 17 Asian development countries. Sub-regional trade in Central, South, and Southeast Asia is the focus of the paper, along with trade with other partners outside the sub-regions. The paper finds that Asian markets for total agri-food exports and exports of nutritious foods are generally more important than the markets outside of Asia and for many of them, the importance of Asian markets increases over time. While net exporters and importers co-exist in each sub-region, with a few exceptions, sub-regional trade is often less important. Many small countries trade only with one or two large neighbors and less so with each other. The dietary transformation impacts trade in nutritious foods in diverse ways. With income growth, increased domestic demand for nutritious foods seem to lead to more imports of these foods. While many South and Southeast Asian countries have a comparative advantage in exports of some nutritious food products, growth in these exports can be negatively affected by rising domestic demand. Although nutritious food exports continue to play important roles in total agri-food exports, export growth of nutritious food is often slower than overall growth of agri-food exports. The dietary transformation also seems to lead to increases in demand for processed foods which many Asian countries meet through imports, often, accounting for a large component of total agri-food imports. On the other hand, processed foods generally account for a small portion of agri-food exports. However, there are a few countries where processed food export growth is rapid. In these cases, the sub-regional market is expanding, but with few exceptions, it is still less important than trade with countries outside the sub-regions. The paper also finds that agri-food exports and imports are highly concentrated, and a small group of commodities dominate most countries export and import portfolios and remain unchanged over time. The main markets for these important commodities are generally not in the sub-regions and this mismatch between demand and supply of agri-food commodities within sub-region is a natural barrier for promoting regional trade. The modified trade complementary index developed in this paper is based on Michaely (1996) and shows that trade complementarity measures are positively correlated with actual bilateral trade. Small countries tend to enjoy higher levels of complementarity with one or two large trading partners than with other small countries in the same sub-region. This implies that small countries could be better off from bilateral trade arrangements with large partners compared to a regional trade agreement within the sub-region. Because the sub-regional market is oftentimes not large enough to meet large countries’ import demand or consume their export supply, regional trade agreements within sub-regions may be less likely to serve their needs for trade expansion than negotiating with large trading partners outside the sub-regions. While many Asian developing countries’ governments have been pushing for trade diversification and want to reduce export dependencies concentrated on one or two large trading partners, this paper shows the challenges to achieve this policy goal. For small countries, focusing on bilateral trade arrangements with their dominant trading partners seems to be a more practical and effective strategy than regional trade agreements within sub-regions. Long-term trade arrangements, consistent trade policies, and various preferential trade arrangements should be pursued by small countries with their larger trading partners to promote agri-food exports.

An abundant supply of raw materials and low-cost labour made China the world's largest producer and exporter of textile products since 2000. The value of China's textile exports to the world amounted to approximately US$ 34 billion in 2004, which represented about 16% of the world's total textile exports. Taking the data from 1985 to 2004, the country-specific factors for textile exports between China and its top 10 trading partners were analyzed statistically using the gravity trading model to identify effects of the major determinants that underpin the textile exports of China. The result renders robust support for the gravity model and shows that GDP, real exchange rate, common membership of free trade agreement for bilateral trading partners, per capita GDP and population growth rate of the importers, all these factors, have shown statistical significance on the China's textile exports. On the contrary, geographical distance has no significant effect on textile trading.

This paper aims to empirically analyze Kenya’s and Korea’s export determinants and export performance by using an augmented gravity model. The augmented gravity model for Kenya and Korea was estimated for three different country groups: the 70, 50 and 30 country data sets. The major findings of this study are as follows. A product of exporter’s GDP and her trading partners’ GDP had a significant and positive effect on the export flows of both Kenya and Korea. For Kenya, the border also had a positive impact on her exports. For Korea, labor productivity had a significant and positive impact on her exports for the three data sets of country groups, while free trade agreements (FTAs) had a significant and positive impact on her exports only for the data set of 30 countries. For Kenya, GDP per capita and her trading partners’ GDP per capita had a significant and negative effect on her exports only for the 50 country data set. The exchange rate for Kenya had a significant and negative impact on her exports for all three country data sets, because of Kenya’s peculiar composition of exported goods such as raw coffee, tea, horticultural crops and raw minerals. For Korea, distance had a significant and negative effect on her export flows. For Korea, GDP per capita and her trading partners’ GDP per capita had a significant and negative impact on her exports for all three data sets of country groups. The exchange rate for Korea had mixed effects with the 70 country data set showing significant and positive effects, while the 50 and 30 country data set had a significant and negative effect on her export flows, which implies that exchange rate depreciation for Korea encouraged export with 70 countries, while it slowed export growth with 50 and 30 countries.

A gravity model is fitted to 17 annual cross sections, 1980–1996, of bilateral trade data (imports and exports) between CARICOM member states and selected trading partners. Specifically, the paper investigates the effects of regional integration, colonial legacies and linguistic ties on CARICOM bilateral trade flows between member states and between member states and North American and European Union countries. The empirical results indicate that history and regionalism have had significant and strong effects on CARICOM trade. Additionally, two traditional explanatory variables in gravity models, income per capita and population, have significant and positive effects on CARICOM trade while the distance between trading partners exerts the expected negative effect.

With trade liberalization, countries with strict environmental regulations can steer away from polluting industries and put greater emphasis on cleaner industries. They increase the import of the higher polluting products and move the polluting industry abroad, whereby improves their environmental quality. In this regard, Taiwan’s trade regulatory policy has been gradually opened since 1990 and its domestic industrial structure and trade pattern have been greatly changed. The main purpose of this paper is to examine whether Taiwan's polluting industries have been transferred to production in the less developed countries while Taiwan itself goes toward liberalized trade. This assumption has been called the pollution haven hypothesis. We use the 2-digit industry-level panel data of Taiwan’s manufacturing from 1991 to 2003 to study the effect of environmental regulation on trade patterns by regressing panel fixed and random environmental control the industries are under, the higher import portion they have. It shows that Taiwan's industrial structure has already moved toward the cleaner and lower polluting pattern in the last ten years. In addition, the import of polluting-intensive industries increased with the decreasing import tariff, yet this ”indirect pollution haven effect” is not significant. When we separate the import of each industry by OECD countries and non-OECD countries, it is significant that the polluting industries have higher import portion in the regression for the non-OECD countries. Obviously, the non-OECD countries have become the haven of Taiwan's high polluting industries. With the trade liberalized and the import tariff reduced, Taiwan increases the net import of the higher polluting products from the non-OECD countries, while decreasing that from OECD countries. And there are different outcomes for different Taiwan's trade partner in the effect of trade liberalization on pollution havens.

Export performance of Indian walnut has been comprehensively analyzed in this study employing chronological data. The export of walnut from India has significantly increased over the years, but still constituted only 3 per cent of total world export. Between 1979 and 2012, the export of shelled walnut has significantly increased, at an annual growth rate of about 3 per cent, while walnut with shell has shown a declining trend over the years, implying widening of markets for value-added products of walnut. The export instability in quantity and value of both shelled and walnut with shell has declined over the years; however, the instability in unit price of shelled walnut has increased over the years. The decomposition analysis has revealed highest contribution of change in mean export quantity among the other components of change in the average export value of walnut. The unit value of Indian walnut export has been found lower compared to many other nations, indicating the possibility of a higher price by ensuring quality parameters as per global standards. The estimates of gravity model have revealed that per capita GDP, agricultural GDP, and consumption of importing partners, and also the Indian GDP are the significant factors determining Indian walnut export. The study has also unveiled unexploited potential of Indian walnut export to some trading partners. The study has emphasized on the improvement in quality of walnut, integration of production and value addition, export promotion and strengthening of bilateral ties with regular trade partners for enhancing export of Indian walnut.

PurposeThis study aims to quantitatively identify the impact of major economic and political factors on the US apparel imports from its 15 major trading partners between 1995 and 2006.Design/methodology/approachOrdinary‐least‐square (OLS) regression under a gravity model framework was utilized to construct the analysis. The determinants of US apparel imports were determined and their significance and direction of change over the period were quantified.FindingsFirst, the growths of GDP and population both in the USA and within its trading partners have been drivers of US apparel import growth, while greater geographic distance between a trading partner and the USA significantly impedes its exports to the USA. Second, the positive impact on the US apparel imports from the supplying country's infrastructure development, literacy rate and its language commonality with the USA shows that these factors are pivotal to being a competitive US apparel supplier. Finally, preferential market access is proven to be crucial for suppliers to increase apparel exports to the USA.Research limitations/implicationsIn future work, the impact of these factors on disaggregated apparel categories could be investigated. Some emerging issues such as non‐tariff barriers could be exploited.Practical implicationsThe findings reveal that the US apparel sourcing decisions are made on the basis of many different costs, not only labour cost, but also economic condition, government policy, infrastructure, transport time and cost, language/culture commonality etc.Originality/valueThe study provides a springboard for empirically analyzing the US apparel imports under a gravity model framework. The conclusions are drawn based on solid quantitative evidence.

The objective of this study is to analyze the determinants of Brazilian exports by levels of technological intensity in the period 2000-2015. Gravity models were estimated for total of the exports and for each type of exports by levels of technological intensity, using the PPML-estimator. The study indicates that there is a process of concentration of Brazilian exports in low technology and medium-low technology products, at the same period in which China's share of total Brazilian shipments abroad grew. Estimates of empirical gravity models have shown that the income and size of the consumer market of Brazil’s trading partners seem to have the greatest positive influence on the Brazilian exports. Indications of this study are that the Brazil should continue to diversify its trading partners to minimize the impacts of a possible reduction of the economic growth of large trading partners (such as China and the US) on its exports and increase its exports of products with greater technological intensity. The results also highlight the need for Brazil to make greater efforts to increase its competitiveness in the international market to reduce the negative impacts of transport costs on the final prices of products exported by the country.

911 Emergency Medical Services and Re-Triage to Level I Trauma Centers

The Effects of Capital Outflows from Neighboring Countries on a Home Country's Terms of Trade and Real Exchange Rate: The Case of East Asia

Nations have used economic sanctions as foreign policy tools for centuries. Policymakers have known for some time that sanctions can and usually do have multiple goals, both instrumental and symbolic. Every time policymakers in the sanctioning nation consider imposing sanctions, they should assess the nature of the target nation, what goals sanctions are most likely to achieve, how comprehensive the measures should be, and whether they should be well publicized or behind-the-scenes. Import and export sanctions usually have their maximum effect in the short term when the target nation's trading patterns are disrupted, while dissipating in the long term as new trading partners are cultivated and illegal evasion takes its toll. In contrast, the effects of financial and cultural sanctions increase over time. Market forces frequently strengthen the effects of financial sanctions. Financial sanctions can have a chilling effect on the target economy.

The foreign trade of a state represents a determinant in assessing its economic statute among the neighbours and in the whole world. Actuality of the studied topic is determined by the changing trade relations that the Republic of Moldova is passing through in the last years. Republic of Moldova holds the necessary criteria for becoming a competitive country in the region in terms of the manufactured and marketed goods. The aim of the study is to evaluate the foreign trade of the Republic of Moldova, by emphasizing the main traded groups of products, trade partners as well as to analyze the average price index and physical volume index of imports and exports. The paper also comes with an analysis of re-export and re-import, which represent a peculiarity for our country’s trade pattern. Research methods that have been used within the paper are the following: analogy, systemic approach, statistical and scientific analysis, Laspeyres index method. The obtained results focus on the recovery of the foreign trade between 2015 and 2017 with higher revival rates of exports, and a growing reorientation of exports towards the European Union and other countries markets.

Sanctions and Consequent Effects on North Korea's Trade

This study aimed to evaluate the impact of Jordan Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with 17 Arab countries (Greater Arab Free Trade Area (GAFTA)), United States of America (USA) and European Union (EU) on Jordan trade flows. A Gravity model is used to estimate the impact of FTAs in term of trade creation and trade diversion. The study utilizes a panel data sample coving 125 selected countries trading with Jordan for the period 1997-2017. The study used Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) to estimate the Gravity model. The study results showed a significant impact of Jordan Gross Domestic Product (GDP), trade partners GDP, Jordan GDP Per Capita (GDPC), trade partners GDPC, distance, common language and border variables on Jordan trade. Further, the differences between Jordan and trade parents GDPs showed an insignificant impact on Jordan trade which implies that most of Jordan trade is among trade partners whom have significant different size of GDP. Furthermore, Jordan – EU agreement showed a significant imports trade creation and exports trade diversion. Jordan – USA agreement showed an imports trade diversion and extra regional exports expansion. Finally, Jordan – GAFTA agreement has a significant import and exports trade creation.