Export Performance of Indian Walnut: Decomposition Analysis and Gravity Model Approach

Considering the significance of trade relation between India and ASEAN, the present study was conducted to analyze the determinants of India-ASEAN trade in agricultural products. This study incorporated HS 2-digit codes from 01 to 24 chapters, which constituted 85 percent of the total chapter falling under agricultural products. To perceive the significance of ASEAN as a major trading partner, shares of India's trade with ASEAN relative to the world was computed via trade intensity approach. Furthermore, the gravity model was employed to witness the determinants of agriculture trade between the two trading partners. The study found that the GDP of ASEAN and India, the common border between the two trading blocs, was positive and significant. The variable distance and landlocked was observed to be negative and significant, which confirmed that trade would decrease if distance increases and if the country was landlocked, respectively. Interestingly, variables like FTA, GDP of India, common language, and common colony showed no significant effect on the bilateral trade.

Tea exports are one of the primary drivers of economic growth in Kenya. Given its importance in the economy, it is necessary to analyze factors that are determining tea export flows between Kenya and its trading partners. In this paper, the key factors determining Kenya’s tea exports to its major 15 trading partners for the period 1990 to 2017 were analyzed using a gravity model method. For this purpose, the secondary data were collected from official websites of the United Nations as well as other reliable sources. The main findings suggest that an increase in the economic size of importing country and depreciation of Kenyan shilling increases tea exports. On the other hand, an increase in population and per capita GDP of the importing country decreases the demand for tea, leading to a reduction of tea exports. Distance is used as a proxy of transportation cost and it is found to have a negative impact on tea exports. Having a common border and trading with countries that are non-landlocked allows the delivery of Kenyan tea at minimum transportation cost, which increases the export flow of tea from Kenya. Moreover, the results reveal that countries that Kenya shares a common colony with and COMESA members have a strong tendency to receive tea exports from Kenya. These results are essential for the formulation of trade policy to ensure that Kenya’s tea export potential is exploited to boost economic growth and generate employment. Keywords: Gravity model, Kenyan tea exports, panel data, fixed effects, random effects, pooled effects DOI: 10.7176/JESD/10-14-15 Publication date: July 31 st 2020

The present paper examines the impacts of food safety incidents on U.S. beef trade using a gravity model approach. With the variable of food safety incidents (BSE and FSIS beef recalls) and free trade agreements, the gravity models of export and import equations are estimated by the random-effect estimation. The estimated results confirm the general intuition of the gravity model in beef export equation and indicate that the occurrence of BSE could make a huge loss for U.S. beef exports. Furthermore, the volumes of beef that U.S. imports from other countries could have benefit from the free trade agreement.

Purpose – This paper aims to use readily available data to validate several predictions on UK walnut import and consumer use behaviours. It then seeks to hypothesise how this information can be used to determine whether and how additional value can be created in the chain. Design/methodology/approach – The chain used was that from sourcing to retail sale of walnuts in the UK. The data used were: UK import price/quantity/origin and total consumption data, global comparisons for import price/quantity/origin and total consumption data. Findings – This paper validates predictions for walnut quality, market size and pricing from a simple model for the UK walnut market. The UK walnut market is small (0.26 g/capita/day) but expanding per capita (8 per cent pa). Import prices are low (15-25 per cent below several other major EU importers) but rising in real terms (7 per cent pa). The UK generally sources walnuts opportunistically from low cost low “international standard” quality suppliers. These findings are consistent with model predictions of market behaviour and previous findings on walnut quality. Practical implications – There may be an opportunity to improve quality specifications for the UK walnut market &/or to expand the UK market into higher quality uses. Both options require educating the UK consumer market in the additional consumer value created. Originality/value – The study indicates the extent of price seeking purchasing behaviour within global markets for an agricultural product (walnuts). It shows this is not a globally consistent market response and thus offers opportunities for all participants in the UK walnut retail value chain to provide enhanced consumer value.

The gravity model approach was used to examine intra-trade flows and exchange rate volatility among BRICS countries.The study discovered that GDP has a significant impact on intra-trade flows, whereas geographical distance and exchange rate volatility have a negative impact on intra-BRICS trade flows.According to the results of the gravity model, special attention should be paid to improving the exchange rate stability of each BRICS country's real GDP.The study recommended that policymakers in the BRICS countries craft macroeconomic policies that reduce exchange rate volatility while maintaining the level and pattern of trade openness.The BRICS economies should generally strengthen and restructure their domestic foreign exchange markets, as their absence acts as a roadblock in mitigating exchange rate risk.

Recently, tourism industry has begun to draw attention of researchers as it became one of the biggest contributors to the country’s wealth in terms of services. According to the latest data from The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), revenues from international tourism in the world were roughly half a billion dollars. Of the many studies that have been conducted about tourist arrivals in specific regions, only a few have discussed the motivation to travel based on the culture and the way of life of the tourists. This is important considering that tourism service providers need to understand the culture of the tourists in order to provide their needs. About a quarter of the world's population is Muslim, and their religion governs their way of life. These people constitute a significant market share for the tourism industry, so it is important to understand their tourism patterns. As a country with the largest Muslim population, Indonesia is ranked at top six beautiful countries in the world. Despite its beauty, Indonesia's position as the largest Muslim country potentially affects the decision of tourists from other Muslim countries to come. It is because religion is thought to be the main carrier and exposition of cultural similarity. Using a gravity model framework for bilateral tourism flows, this study seeks to estimate the effect of Muslim country on the number of inbound tourists in Indonesia. Our data set includes a panel of 33 countries of origin for the period 2001-2017. We use pooled least squares, fixed effect and random effect models for our estimations. Our results show the negative effect of Muslim country, implying that the number of inbound tourists to Indonesia from Muslim countries is smaller than those from non-Muslim countries. This finding indicates that Indonesia has not been able to attract Muslim tourists to visit. In line with the gravity model approach, most of the Muslim countries are geographically far from Indonesia, and this hampers the number of inbound tourists. Also, many Muslim countries have low level of per capita income, and among few Muslim countries with high per capita income typically have small population. Therefore, it is not religion similarity that matters in determining tourist arrivals from Muslim countries in Indonesia but rather on the economic capacity and travelling time.

This study aimed to analyze the impact of trade liberalization between ASEAN and China on ASEAN and China export using the gravity models approach. The liberalization of trade openness is measured by the ratio of the total exports of ASEAN countries and China. The data used are annual panel data consisting of the ten ASEAN member countries and US states from 2010 to 2021. The difference with previous research is the object of research which analyzes specifically related to the free trade agreement carried out between ASEAN member countries and China which is analyzed using the Gravity model. The results of the estimation ASEAN models is the variable openness ASEAN countries against the China positive influence on ASEAN exports. China openness toward ASEAN variables did not significantly affect ASEAN exports. Results of the estimation China model shows the openness variable ASEAN against US no effect on China exports. Variable China openness toward ASEAN positive effect on China exports. Of the two models of the estimated proved that trade liberalization ASEAN - China influence on ASEAN exports and China exports. The implication of the study in free trade agreement that ASEAN countries is more focused on the sector of agriculture product, food, textile and some extractive industries. The results of the estimation ASEAN models is the variable openness ASEAN countries against the China positive influence on ASEAN exports. China openness toward ASEAN variables did not significantly affect ASEAN exports. Results of the estimation China model shows the openness variable ASEAN against US no effect on China exports. Variable China openness toward ASEAN positive effect on China exports. Of the two models of the estimated proved that trade liberalization ASEAN - China influence on ASEAN exports and China exports

In this chapter, we discuss the use of gravity models in the study of spatial structure. Using the recent discussion on functional polycentricity as a background, we argue that the gravity model approach has one obvious advantage when examining spatial structure: it can simultaneously assess functional polycentricity and spatial interdependencies within one modelling framework. The chapter concludes with a discussion of methods that can be applied to estimate the gravity model.

PurposeThe main purpose of this paper is to analyse the different factors affecting Sino-African trade based on the gravity model, and propose some solutions to improve the problems.Design/methodology/approachThe paper is based on an extended gravity model, including trade agreement and recession as explanatory variables. The impacts of trade agreement and economic recession on Sino-African imports and exports are examined.FindingsThe results show that the product of GDP affects African exports to China significantly and negatively, and affects African imports from China positively. Real exchange rate affects African exports to China positively, and affects African imports from China negatively. Population affect African exports to China significantly and positively, and affect African imports from China positively. Recession have negative effects on both African imports from China and exports to China but is only significant for imports. Agreement affects African imports from China and exports to China positively. Our findings confirm the impact of economic recession, and imply that the structure of African product exported to China should be improved, and trade agreements should be reinforced.Originality/valueThis paper contributes and extends the literature on Sino-African trade by improving the traditional gravity model to include the impact of all trade agreements, and their aggregating effects on trade. The paper also seeks to assess the trade impact of economic recession through a dynamic gravity model approach for which there has been no research done to our knowledge. In this regard, it provides new understanding of the trade pattern between China and Africa, and ways in improving the Sino-African bilateral trade.

This paper analysed the determinants of Malawi’s cotton exports, given the challenges faced by main traditional export crop which has rekindled interest in the development of cotton as a key export crop. The gravity model of trade was estimated following the Helpman, Melitz and Rubinsten (2008) framework. Using a balanced panel data, with the set of 36 countries that Malawi has exported cotton to for 13 years (2001 to 2013), the model was estimated to find the determinants of the extensive and intensive margins of Malawi’s cotton exports. It was found that Malawi’s GDP per capita, price, exchange rate, production index, similarity in continent and eligibility for African Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA) significantly affected the extensive margin of Malawi’s cotton trade. It was also found that the per capita GDP, distance with trading partners and the exchange rate affected intensive margins of Malawi’s cotton exports. Key words: Agricultural trade, gravity model, cotton, panel data, Malawi.

An abundant supply of raw materials and low-cost labour made China the world's largest producer and exporter of textile products since 2000. The value of China's textile exports to the world amounted to approximately US$ 34 billion in 2004, which represented about 16% of the world's total textile exports. Taking the data from 1985 to 2004, the country-specific factors for textile exports between China and its top 10 trading partners were analyzed statistically using the gravity trading model to identify effects of the major determinants that underpin the textile exports of China. The result renders robust support for the gravity model and shows that GDP, real exchange rate, common membership of free trade agreement for bilateral trading partners, per capita GDP and population growth rate of the importers, all these factors, have shown statistical significance on the China's textile exports. On the contrary, geographical distance has no significant effect on textile trading.

The paper analysis the flows of Foreign Direct Investment and common factors that drive the Foreign Direct Investment flows between India and Gulf Cooperation Council countries, in this paper for empirical analysis of flow of FDI, gravity model of international trade executed, data is collected from the secondary sources from the year 2001 to 2022. The main objective of the paper is to know that how FDI is effect by the GDP of two regions like India and GCC countries and other determinants of FDI in this paper, finding of the paper describes factors like GDP of India and GCC countries and employment, real effective exchange rate of India as a regressor in the model are very deterministic for explaining the flow of FDI between India & GCC countries, and in future it will benefits the countries for their development and growth.

A timely analysis for carbon emission reduction in buildings is an effective global response to the crisis of climate change. The logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition analysis approach has been extensively used to assess the carbon emission reduction potential of the buildings sector. In order to simplify the calculation process and to expand its application scope, a new open-source Python tool (PyLMDI) developed in this article is used to compute the results of LMDI decomposition analysis, including multiplicative and additive decomposition. Users can quickly obtain the decomposition result by initializing the input data through a simple class data structure. In addition, the carbon emissions from commercial buildings are used as a numerical example to demonstrate the function of PyLMDI. In summary, PyLMDI is a potential calculation tool for index decomposition analysis that can provide calculation guidance for carbon emission reduction in the buildings sector. The data and codes for the numerical example are also included.

The recent changes in world politics and economy, along with the breakup of the Iron Curtain, directly influenced the foreign trade structure of the Eurasian countries. The foreign trade relations, controlled by the central planning during the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) era, began to be formed according to free-market conditions. In this paper, empirical gravity models, covering data of 86 countries for the 1994–2018 period, are used to determine factors affecting the international integration process of the Eurasian countries. For these purposes, we estimated the classical and augmented gravity models to scrutinize the effects of border, infrastructure, trade policies, and institutions, along with the main factors. Based on the estimation results, we concluded that the Eurasian countries during the analysis period were 35% less integrated with the world trade system than the predicted potential level.

We explore the effect of the non-economic factors in the safety of fishery products as well as economic and geological factors on fishery trade across countries, using the gravity model in this study. We focus on the effect of non-economic factors, especially, Seafood Traceability system, HACCP, and SPS agreements, which have not been considered in Korean studies using the gravity model. Our findings demonstrate the followings: First, for one trade pattern- fishery export-, Korean total fishery exports and each trading partner’s total fishery imports have a significant effect on Korean fishery exports to them. The proxy variable for distance across countries, transportation time, and companies with HACCP certification have a significant effect on Korea’s fishery exports to trading partners. Second, for the other trade pattern- fishery import-, trading partners’ total fishery exports and transportation time have positive effects on Korean fishery imports from them.