КОНЦЕПТУАЛЬНІ ОСНОВИ ДОСЛІДЖЕННЯ ДИСБАЛАНСІВ РУХУ ФІНАНСОВИХ РЕСУРСІВ В ЕКОНОМІЦІ

The subject of the research is the Russian financial market. The aim of the study is to develop a cognitive model of the Russian financial market to assess the security of its functioning. The relevance of the study is due to the need to assess the reaction of the national financial market to various exogenous and endogenous stressors in the face of growing geopolitical tensions and the emergence of new artificial restrictions on the access of domestic investors to foreign sources of capital. The belonging of modern financial markets to complex adaptive systems consisting of elements and relationships, the formal description of the dynamics of which is very problematic, determines the advisability of using cognitive analysis and modeling methods in the process of assessing the safety of their functioning. A feature of the study is that when building a cognitive model of the national financial market, the author uses as the main elements not individual actors of the financial market, but macroeconomic aggregates that characterize the state of the financial market and the economy as a whole. The actor-network structure of the national financial market presented in this way makes it possible to consider the high degree of interpenetration of the financial and real sectors, which is characteristic of the modern economy. The novelty of the paper lies in the development of tools for analyzing the dynamics of the financial market as a result of constructing a methodological framework for studying the security of its functioning based on cognitive modeling. The developed cognitive model shows how the identified macro-aggregates change as a result of the spread of a positive or negative impulse, allowing to highlight the critical factors ensuring the sustainable functioning of the financial market. The author concludes that in the case of a balanced state of the considered macroeconomic aggregates, the existing hierarchical structure of the Russian financial market makes it possible to localize and neutralize crisis phenomena of an endogenous nature. At the same time, within the framework of the existing networks of the interaction of the financial market, exogenous stress impulses will intensify and lead to a violation of its effective performance of the function of capital circulation. The practical significance of the research results lies in the ability to determine the stabilizing processes and mechanisms operating in the economy as a whole and in the financial sector in particular, and in their absence, to identify the possibilities for their design that can increase the systemic security of the functioning of the country’s financial market.

The finance sector now shows an accelerating trend of virtualization. It is rather pressing for us to enhance coordinated development of the finance market and the real economy. This paper analyzes the mixed conduction mechanism for the finance field and the real economy, and it has been a hot topic in the finance sector to capture the spatial effect and enhance the estimation precision. This paper introduces the regional spatial gravitational effects, which, together with the indicators of the financial market and the real economy, defines the broad economic metric distance and Gravitational effects Spatial Weights Matrix, constructs broad multi-dimensional economic space, and builds multi-variate Spatial-FIAPARCH-DCC models and Spatial SUR contagion models, to explore the impact of the financial crisis on different regions and different real economy sectors. Our research shows that the broad multi-dimensional space has remarkable advantages in the spatial effect between the financial market and the real economy, and there is asymmetric relation between the extent to which the real economy suffers and the degree to which the financial market suffers. The effects of the financial crisis on the real economy show remarkable sectoral industrial agglomeration and hierarchy.

Introduction. Financial sector plays an important role in the financing of business entities in the real economy sector. A possibility of rising funds through the stock or banking sector enables substantially to expand the scope of enterprises. However, the presence of permanent financial crises does not allow companies to use these opportunities in full. Therefore, the assessment of state and trends of the stock and banking sectors in the context of the use of their funds to finance companies in the real sector of the economy becomes important. Purpose. The article aims to identify contemporary issues of development of the stock and banking sectors in the context of their ability to finance companies in the real economy. Method. In order to achieve the goal of the research we have used the following methods: method of structural and dynamic analysis and method of economic and statistical analysis of the development of the stock and banking sectors of Ukraine. Results. It has been determined that the deterioration of the stock market in Ukraine led to its exclusion from the list of marginal markets. The largest segment of the Ukrainian stock and banking sector services the issuers, which are owned by the state. At the same time, the financial sector has features of bank-centeredness since banks play a leading role in financing of companies and in transactions of the stock market. Ukrainian stock market mainly carries out operations with government bonds and only a small part of operations provides financing for the activities of companies through the issue of stocks and bonds. The share of long-term sources of funding is gradually decreasing and it is critically low for economic growth of the country. The tempos of providing long-term and short-term bank loans for the company are slowing down. A positive trend is the reduction of interest rates on loans. There is a need to develop effective measures for using opportunities of the stock and banking sectors as well for financing companies in the real sector of the economy.

This dissertation consists of four essays, focusing on the relationship between financial risks, financial market uncertainty and macroeconomic conditions. The first essay estimates the effects of anticipated and unanticipated monetary policy changes on jump variation by employing high frequency non-parametric jump detection methods. We use an event study approach and a structural VAR framework in examining stock price jump variation for the aggregate economy, the financial, health, energy and telecommunication-information technology sectors (Tel-Info). We find that anticipated changes in the Fed funds have no significant effect on jumps. In contrast, jump variation in the price of financial market data increases with monetary policy surprises. We document evidence of asymmetries in the response of jumps to monetary policy changes. Monetary policy surprises and positive changes in the Fed target rate induce increment in jumps. Similar results exist in the sector analysis. In addition, this study uncovers no evidence of endogenous response between jumps and monetary policy surprises. The second essay estimates the response of uncertainty/risk aversion to monetary policy actions in both the financial sector and the aggregate economy using a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model. When compared with other sectors, our constructs reveal that financial risk aversion/uncertainty has greater correlation with the aggregate risk aversion and uncertainty. Our analysis reveals that financial risk aversion and uncertainty exhibit stronger interdependence with monetary policy actions than aggregate uncertainty and risk aversion. The third essay provides the dynamic characterization of the link between ex-ante financial distress risk and the real economy. Using 219, 990 firm-year observations, an ex-ante measure of financial distress is generated at sector level. By employing simultaneous equation model, we provide a comprehensive set-up for predicting ex-ante financial distress risk and examining its effect on GDP growth. Over the period of 1970-2012, the results from the US firms reveal that ex-ante financial distress strongly relate to GDP growth. Ex-ante distress risk contracts GDP growth by up to 10%. Similar contractions in the growth of GDP are uncovered when a single equation approach is used in establishing the relationship between financial distress and growth in GDP. In addition, the results remain consistent when a confirmatory analysis is generated by using a weighted sector index of financial distress. The fourth essay examines liquidity risk and financial integration using bank level flows for 95 countries. The results suggest that global banking network influences liquidity risk. The more the banks are connected to each other the more they are prone to liquidity risk and the result is the same for intermediaries in the network formation. Borrowers that connect to important lenders are not at an advantage, but banks that have independent access to finance in the financial network are at an advantage. On a regional basis, banks in Europe, Africa and Asia and Pacific that have strong connections are prone to liquidity risk. American banks that function as intermediary in the network are prone to liquidity risk. Banks in the American region that have independent access to financing in the financial network are able to reduce liquidity creation, but their degree of connectivity worsens net stable funding.

Problem setting. Artificial intelligence is rapidly affecting the financial sector with countless potential benefits in terms of improving financial services and compliance. In the financial sector, artificial intelligence algorithms are already trusted to account for transactions, detect fraudulent schemes, assess customer creditworthiness, resource planning and reporting. But the introduction of such technologies entails new risks. Analysis of resent researches and publications. The following scientists were engaged in research of the specified question: D.W. Arner, J. Barberis, R.P. Buckley, Jon Truby, Rafael Brown, Andrew Dahdal, O. A. Baranov, O. V. Vinnyk, I. V. Yakovyuk, A. P. Voloshin, A. O. Shovkun, N.B. Patsuriia. Target of research. The aim of the article is to identify key strategic issues in developing mechanisms to ensure the effective implementation and use of artificial intelligence in the financial services market. Article’s main body. The paper investigates an important scientific and practical problem of legal regulation of artificial intelligence used by financial services market participants. The legal risks associated with the use of artificial intelligence programs in a particular area are considered. The most pressing risks to address targeted AI regulation are fundamental rights, data confidentiality, security and effective performance, and accountability. This article argues that the best way to encourage a sustainable future in AI innovation in the financial sector is to support a proactive regulatory approach prior to any financial harm occurring. This article argues that it would be optimal for policymakers to intervene early with targeted, proactive but balanced regulatory approaches to AI technology in the financial sector that are consistent with emerging internationally accepted principles on AI governance. Conclusions and prospects for the development. The adoption of rational regulations that encourage innovation whilst ensuring adherence to international principles will significantly reduce the likelihood that AI-related risks will develop into systemic problems. Leaving the financial sector only with voluntary codes of practice may encourage experimentation that in turn may result in innovative benefits – but it will definitely render customers vulnerable, institutions exposed and the entire financial system weakened.

The concept of life quality has been studied by specialists from a variety of scientific fields: economics, social geography, sociology, psychology, medicine, political sciences, and others. This contributes to the complementariness of the notion and broadens its interdisciplinary perspective, but on the other hand, it leads to a lack of unanimity in terms of the definition and measurement of the quality of life. Meanwhile, all developed countries in the world regard enhancing life quality as a priority of state policy. With the further advancement of our civilisation, quality of life will become a major issue in economic development. Therefore, monitoring this aspect of economic life, at both country and regional level, seems to be of particular significance. The paper aims to assess the suitability of selected methods of multivariate statistical analysis for the construction of a synthetic measure of objective quality of life. The study employs two methods of constructing synthetic measures of objective life quality: the linear ordering method – TOPSIS, and factor analysis. The results obtained by means of multivariate statistical analysis methods made it possible to create ratings of Polish and Belarusian regions in terms of objective quality of life and to further divide the regions into typological groups.

The paper explores empirically the links between the WTO-driven liberalization of trade in financial services and the stability of national financial systems. Econometric testing of indicators intended to proxy financial sector stability-subdivided into exchange rate and banking sector stability-suggests that opening of the financial sector is an efficient policy instrument at the disposal of the authorities for achieving a variety of macroeconomic goals. While liberalization is found to be broadly conducive to stability, the outcome of liberalization on exchange rate stability is less predictable than on banking sector stability.

It is indisputable that the real sector of the economy requires investment, especially in the current technological age. Banks, on the other hand, possess significant financial resources, but due to insufficient, asymmetric information and the underdeveloped financial system, the interaction between the real and financial sectors is ineffective. The "late response" of the financial sector to changes in the real sector has become the cause of a chronic oversupply of financial services, resulting in a situation where the level of liquidity in banks is largely independent of economic cycles. The paper aims to identify the ways in which interest rate fluctuations impact the real and financial sectors of the RA economy and to evaluate this impact. The paper analyzes trends in the main indicators characterizing the real and financial sectors of RA, as well as the behavior of various types of interest rates according to the factors determining them. It comments on the macroeconomic developments in RA caused by interest rate fluctuations. With the help of econometric models, the study estimates the effect sizes between various links on the interest rate path. The study made it possible to highlight the problems with the transmission mechanisms of the monetary policy of RA and suggest possible solutions. As a result of the assessment, it was found that deposit and credit interest rates, interbank repo rates, and one-year government bond yield rates respond to changes in the refinancing rate of the Central Bank in different time lags.

The article emphasizes the unprecedented growth of the role and importance of monetary relations in the formation of the market component of society, by supplementing it – the financial market and financial services markets, non-bank financial institutions professionally engaged in large-scale financial transactions. In this regard, monetary relations in their interaction with legal norms give rise to financial legal relations, which simplifies and disciplines the understanding and perception of monetary relations as an object of financial and legal regulation. It is stated that the regulatory impact on monetary relations in the activities of non-bank financial latter in market relations goes beyond public finance, expanding due to corporate and private finance, their market component, and the volume of private and commercial monetary resources in such conditions are one of the parties to the financial and credit relations. The environment for the implementation of modern monetary policy is formed by many factors, which together create extremely difficult conditions and reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy in achieving its goals. However, the most significant is the spread of the global financial crisis, to overcome which Ukraine needs to improve the legal framework for monetary regulation and apply market mechanisms to regulate the credit system. From a legal point of view, it is important when considering monetary relations (especially the forms of their expression) to understand the substantial nature of the financial mechanism as a whole. It is not the institutions of the financial system such as commercial banks, insurance companies, pension funds, investment funds or other institutions that generate credit as such, but, on the contrary, the existence of monetary relations generates the relevant institutions. And this is not just a scholastic play on words or manipulation of scientific concepts, but a legal fact. Thus, despite the rather intensive formation, the non-banking financial sector has not yet become the main and convenient mechanism for providing the real sector of the economy with the necessary financial resources. They are going through the initial period of their formation, their development remains little dynamic, sometimes even chaotic, which is why it is important to further study their legal nature, activities, functions they perform in the economy of the state and so on. In order to minimize the risks that may result from the lack of stability, transparency and competitiveness of the non-banking financial sector, it is necessary to strengthen the institutional and financial capacity of bodies regulating the financial services market and create an effective system for preventing crimes committed by non-banking financial institutions. Public policy in the non-banking financial sector should be aimed at: creating a system of risk identification, monitoring and ongoing analysis of the financial services market in order to ensure opportunities to take precautions to ensure financial security; strengthening transparency and openness in the activities of financial institutions and the body that carries out state regulation and supervision of such institutions; increasing the solvency and financial stability of non-bank financial institutions; ensuring proper protection of consumers of non-banking financial services; preventing the use of non-bank financial institutions for unproductive withdrawal of capital abroad.

The study investigates the impact of climate risk on the financial sector stability of the selected SADC countries in the context of Angola, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Namibia, Tanzania, Eswatini, the Democratic Republic of Congo, South Africa, and Zambia. Countries chosen for this study face similar climate-related shocks, such as rising annual carbon dioxide emissions, affecting their agro-based economies and the real sector. The study employed Panel Ordinary Least Squares (POLS), Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) and Feasible Generalised Least Squares (FGLS) models to estimate the long-run parameters of climate risks' impact on the region's financial sector stability. The results show that climate risk negatively affects financial stability while positively increasing lending activities. The study recommends that SADC countries expand government-guaranteed bank credit schemes targeting capital projects needed to facilitate the transition to green energy sources and incentivise targeted green investments, particularly green bonds, carbon credits, and green banking, to enhance green growth and financial sector resilience.

An Assessment of the Impacts of Banking Sector Reforms in Nigeria

The financial sector plays a very significant role in triggering the economic growth of a country and also became the locomotive of growth in the real sector through capital accumulation and technological innovation. High performance financial sector will result in increased economic growth instead of economic growth is not the main cause of the improvement in the performance of the financial sector. This study aims to examine the relationship of causality between financial sector and economic growth in Indonesia, where the financial sector in the show by the monetization ratio, the ratio of loans, demand deposits and savings. By using secondary data for the period 2000-2010, This research uses the analytical framework cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) between financial sector development and economic growth. The results showed that the financial sector indicated by the ratio of monetization, credit ratios, demand deposits and savings have no causal relationship with economic growth in Indonesia. Significant influence given variable demand deposits to economic growth. Instead of economic growth significantly affect the monetization and savings.

The financial sector in developing and transition countries is heavily supported by donor assistance. Hundreds of millions of dollars are poured into the finance industry every year on the grounds that this public money fills holes left behind by the private financial sector. This assumption is supported by studies showing that specific target groups (such as the informal sector and small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs)) which are regarded as essential for economic and social development are not adequately served by banks and therefore lack the funds necessary for sustained development. The gap left by the private sector is filled by a wide range of programmes which focus, for example, on supporting existing banks in downscaling their operations in order to reach the “unbanked” or to better serve their corporate clientele, on greenfield operations or on upgrading non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and microfinance institutions (MFIs). All of these programmes aim to enhance economic and social development. In this sense, financial institutions are used as intermediaries to provide the target group (the economic actors in the real economy) with access to capital.

A Financial Macro-Network Approach to Climate Policy Evaluation

In a globalized world, the financial sectors and the real sectors are interlinked. Although it is a common phenomenon to a developed economy in its national as well as provincial levels, it has hardly been tested for the low-income countries like India. It is further difficult to have such linkage effects at the provinces and district levels. This article aims to examine whether per capita commercial bank credit and per capita net district domestic product for the districts of West Bengal state in India have long-run associations for the period 1993–2014 in a panel data framework. Using the panel cointegration and Vector error correction mechanism (VECM) technique, the study reveals that both the financial and real sector indicators are cointegrated and the short-run errors are corrected significantly to establish that there is bilateral causality between credit and output in both long run and short run.