A Financial Macro-Network Approach to Climate Policy Evaluation

This dissertation consists of four essays, focusing on the relationship between financial risks, financial market uncertainty and macroeconomic conditions. The first essay estimates the effects of anticipated and unanticipated monetary policy changes on jump variation by employing high frequency non-parametric jump detection methods. We use an event study approach and a structural VAR framework in examining stock price jump variation for the aggregate economy, the financial, health, energy and telecommunication-information technology sectors (Tel-Info). We find that anticipated changes in the Fed funds have no significant effect on jumps. In contrast, jump variation in the price of financial market data increases with monetary policy surprises. We document evidence of asymmetries in the response of jumps to monetary policy changes. Monetary policy surprises and positive changes in the Fed target rate induce increment in jumps. Similar results exist in the sector analysis. In addition, this study uncovers no evidence of endogenous response between jumps and monetary policy surprises. The second essay estimates the response of uncertainty/risk aversion to monetary policy actions in both the financial sector and the aggregate economy using a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model. When compared with other sectors, our constructs reveal that financial risk aversion/uncertainty has greater correlation with the aggregate risk aversion and uncertainty. Our analysis reveals that financial risk aversion and uncertainty exhibit stronger interdependence with monetary policy actions than aggregate uncertainty and risk aversion. The third essay provides the dynamic characterization of the link between ex-ante financial distress risk and the real economy. Using 219, 990 firm-year observations, an ex-ante measure of financial distress is generated at sector level. By employing simultaneous equation model, we provide a comprehensive set-up for predicting ex-ante financial distress risk and examining its effect on GDP growth. Over the period of 1970-2012, the results from the US firms reveal that ex-ante financial distress strongly relate to GDP growth. Ex-ante distress risk contracts GDP growth by up to 10%. Similar contractions in the growth of GDP are uncovered when a single equation approach is used in establishing the relationship between financial distress and growth in GDP. In addition, the results remain consistent when a confirmatory analysis is generated by using a weighted sector index of financial distress. The fourth essay examines liquidity risk and financial integration using bank level flows for 95 countries. The results suggest that global banking network influences liquidity risk. The more the banks are connected to each other the more they are prone to liquidity risk and the result is the same for intermediaries in the network formation. Borrowers that connect to important lenders are not at an advantage, but banks that have independent access to finance in the financial network are at an advantage. On a regional basis, banks in Europe, Africa and Asia and Pacific that have strong connections are prone to liquidity risk. American banks that function as intermediary in the network are prone to liquidity risk. Banks in the American region that have independent access to financing in the financial network are able to reduce liquidity creation, but their degree of connectivity worsens net stable funding.

Introduction. Financial sector plays an important role in the financing of business entities in the real economy sector. A possibility of rising funds through the stock or banking sector enables substantially to expand the scope of enterprises. However, the presence of permanent financial crises does not allow companies to use these opportunities in full. Therefore, the assessment of state and trends of the stock and banking sectors in the context of the use of their funds to finance companies in the real sector of the economy becomes important. Purpose. The article aims to identify contemporary issues of development of the stock and banking sectors in the context of their ability to finance companies in the real economy. Method. In order to achieve the goal of the research we have used the following methods: method of structural and dynamic analysis and method of economic and statistical analysis of the development of the stock and banking sectors of Ukraine. Results. It has been determined that the deterioration of the stock market in Ukraine led to its exclusion from the list of marginal markets. The largest segment of the Ukrainian stock and banking sector services the issuers, which are owned by the state. At the same time, the financial sector has features of bank-centeredness since banks play a leading role in financing of companies and in transactions of the stock market. Ukrainian stock market mainly carries out operations with government bonds and only a small part of operations provides financing for the activities of companies through the issue of stocks and bonds. The share of long-term sources of funding is gradually decreasing and it is critically low for economic growth of the country. The tempos of providing long-term and short-term bank loans for the company are slowing down. A positive trend is the reduction of interest rates on loans. There is a need to develop effective measures for using opportunities of the stock and banking sectors as well for financing companies in the real sector of the economy.

The Real Economy: Conceptualization and Dynamics

Research purpose. The development of financial technology sector ( fintech ) poses a challenge for traditional financial institutions. Therefore, it is important to analyze not only how financial technologies can change, but also how the fintech sector affects banks and their profitability. The aim of the paper is to analyze the possibilities for the development of financial technology sector and quantitatively evaluate its impact on the banking sector’s profitability in Lithuania. Design / Methodology / Approach. After the analysis of academic literature and statistical data, the authors used expert evaluation method in order to identify development opportunities of fintech in Lithuania and correlation-regression analysis was applied to evaluate the impact of fintech on the profitability of the Lithuanian banking sector. Findings . According to the results of expert assessment research, Lithuania possesses favorable conditions for fintech enterprises to enter the Lithuanian finance market; it is expected that this sector will continue to rapidly expand mostly in payments and banking business models. Correlation-regression analysis showed that fintech indicators has an effect on the banking sector’s profitability but the effect in not very significant. The significance of the connection is lower because banking sector adapts technologies and is influenced by fintech from inside and outside the environment. Originality / Value / Practical implications. The fintech sector in Lithuania is still new and so far very little researched. The outcomes of this research have expanded the scope of research of the Lithuanian fintech sector. The obtained results would be useful and relevant to (i) the government sector to manage risks and ensure stability in the financial sector; (ii) financial sector entities to monitor possible developments and prepare them accordingly; and (iii) banking sector to analyze the impact of technology and fintech entities on them and take strategic decisions in this regard.

In the article the direction of movement of financial resources in financialisation of modern economies. The system objects impact assessment imbalances movement of financial resources in the economy in terms of the prevalence of the financial sector over the real (social development, economic development, price indices of commodity markets, the stability of the financial sector, the convergence of the financial and real sectors, investment resources). Followed interconnection facilities imbalances traffic impact assessment in terms of financial resources financialisation of the economy with elements of classical model kruhopotokiv (households, firms, market factors of production, goods market, the financial market). Required systematized and auxiliary (optional) indicators to assess the extent imbalances movement of financial resources in terms of financialisation of the economy. The general structure of the integral index of evaluation of imbalances movement of financial resources in financialisation of the economy. Built integral index of financial development (based on use of methods of multivariate statistical analysis). The system of indicators characterizing objects evaluating imbalances movement of financial resources in terms of prevalence of the financial sector over the real economy. Thesis there is determined the components of the conceptual principles of research imbalances movement of financial resources in the economy in terms of its financialisation

This study takes a fresh look at the nature of financial and real business cycles in OECD countries using annual data series and shorter quarterly economic indicators. It first analyses whether the last cycle has been different compared to previous cycles in terms of length, amplitude, asymmetry and changes of these parameters during expansions and contractions. We also study the degree of economic and financial cycle synchronization between OECD countries but also of economic and financial variables within a given country and gauge the extent to which cycle synchronization changed over time. We next describe the connection between the great moderation and the last cycle. Finally, the study discusses the synchronization between the real economy and the financial sector and provides some new evidence on the banking sector's pro‐cyclicality by using aggregate and bank level. The main findings show that the amplitude of the real business cycle was becoming smaller during the great moderation, but asset price cycles were becoming more volatile. In part, this was linked to developments in the banking sector which tended to accentuate pro‐cyclical behaviour. Greater synchronization of cycles may help explain the severity of the crisis.

What explains the choice of corporate political strategy in environmental politics? Drawing on recent models of actor strategy formation in political economy, this article argues that basic material interests of firms are translated into strategies in the context of institutional environments. I advance a typological model that posits how distributional effects—positive versus negative—and perceived regulatory pressure—low versus high—interact in leading firms to adopt one of four ideal-type strategies: opposition, hedging, support, and non-participation. This article examines the model through the case of corporate strategies in the making of the European Union’s Emission Trading Scheme. The article contributes to theory-building on business strategy in environmental politics by offering a probabilistic explanatory model, and it flags hedging strategies as an increasingly prevalent form of business behavior.

An Assessment of the Impacts of Banking Sector Reforms in Nigeria

The finance sector now shows an accelerating trend of virtualization. It is rather pressing for us to enhance coordinated development of the finance market and the real economy. This paper analyzes the mixed conduction mechanism for the finance field and the real economy, and it has been a hot topic in the finance sector to capture the spatial effect and enhance the estimation precision. This paper introduces the regional spatial gravitational effects, which, together with the indicators of the financial market and the real economy, defines the broad economic metric distance and Gravitational effects Spatial Weights Matrix, constructs broad multi-dimensional economic space, and builds multi-variate Spatial-FIAPARCH-DCC models and Spatial SUR contagion models, to explore the impact of the financial crisis on different regions and different real economy sectors. Our research shows that the broad multi-dimensional space has remarkable advantages in the spatial effect between the financial market and the real economy, and there is asymmetric relation between the extent to which the real economy suffers and the degree to which the financial market suffers. The effects of the financial crisis on the real economy show remarkable sectoral industrial agglomeration and hierarchy.

How to quantitatively measure the macro dynamic effect of monetary policy is one of the most critical issues in the mainstream macro research （Benanke and Gertler, 1995; Christiano, et al., 1999）. In the context of global financial integration, how will a country’s monetary policy affect the macroeconomy of other countries? This international spillover effect of monetary policy has been hotly debated in the academy, but it has not yet been conclusive. The reason is that, empirically, how to identify the impact of exogenous monetary policy has not been well resolved at the technical level; theoretically, mainstream macroeconomic models provide various transmission mechanisms, and no consensus has been reached.Due to the above difficulties, research on the international spillover effect of monetary policy is still in its early stage, and the impact of US monetary policy on China’s economy is seldom studied. From the empirical point of view, this article follows the latest literature Barakchian and Crowe （2013, hereinafter referred to as BC） to identify the impact of exogenous monetary policy in the United States, and studies the dynamic impact of US monetary policy on China’s macroeconomy and its underlying transmission mechanism. This article provides new evidence on the international spillover effect of monetary policy and also tests the existing theories in international economics from an empirical perspective.The primary issue to be addressed in monetary policy research is how to identify exogenous monetary policy shocks. However, macroeconomic regulation often relies on the current situation of aggregate economy. Since there is a strong endogenous relationship among economic variables, it is difficult to directly construct a system that includes policy variables and macroeconomic indicators to identify exogenous monetary policy shocks. To this end, BC （2013） solves the endogenous issue regarding the identification of monetary policy shocks. The exogenous shock constructed through their indicator not only avoids making ad hoc assumptions about the feedback rules of monetary policy, but also avoids the endogenous problems and the sample selection issue in traditional identification methods.Based on the US monetary policy shock constructed by BC （2013）, this article studies the spillover effect of US monetary policy on China’s macroeconomy and therefore solves the aforementioned endogenous problem of monetary policy shocks. The basic model of the empirical analysis is a three-variable structural vector autoregressive error correction model （SVECM） that includes China’s industrial output, price index, and US monetary policy shocks. Based on this model, we find that the opening-up policy of WTO accession at the end of 2001 has a significant structural impact on the spillover effect of US monetary policy and its transmission mechanism. Specifically, we divide the monthly data from 1996−2008 into two sub-samples before and after January 2002. Using the 2002−2008 subsample, we find that the impact of the US’s tightening monetary policy significantly causes China’s output to rise and prices to fall, thus performing as a positive supply shock to China’s economy. Based on the 1996−2001 subsample, US monetary policy will not have a significant impact on China’s economy. The above findings are largely different from the findings in Kim （1999, 2001）, Canova （2005）, and among others.In the analysis of the transmission mechanism, this article finds that the price channel can well explain the stylized facts in the data. Our theory proceeds as follows: The US tightening monetary policy will lead to the appreciation of the US dollar, which will cause US manufacturers to lower their export prices in US dollars （Exchange Rate Pass-Through）. Due to the yuan-dollar fixed exchange rate system, China’s import prices will decline, and the prices of domestic raw materials and CPI will decline. Lower production costs lead manufacturers to increase production, which is reflected by an increase in China’s output. Therefore, the price channel indicates that the US tightening monetary policy is equivalent to a positive supply shock, which will simultaneously increase China’s output and reduce the price level. Based on the extended SVECM system, we find that Chinese macro data can identify the price channels of imported goods. Further robustness analysis shows that our main findings are robust to different sample periods and different model settings. Besides, in order to better explain the identification of import price channels, we have conducted empirical tests on several standard theories in international economics. The results show that the standard theories fail to explain the Chinese data. Therefore, the price channel provides the primary transmission mechanism of the spillover effect of US monetary policy on China’s economy, and this channel also explains the empirical finding that WTO has a structural impact on the spillover effect.

What role do people think distributional aspects should play in the design of climate policy? The literature assessing climate policies has shown that assumptions regarding peoples’ distributional preferences for climate change policy impacts are central for policy assessment, but empirical evidence for such preferences is lacking. We design a discrete choice experiment that varies how climate policies affect the income of future generations living in three geographical regions, with distinctly different current and predicted future income levels. The experiment is implemented on a sample of the Danish population and preferences are modelled in a latent class model. Our results show that a small majority of the sample (60%) hold preferences consistent with inequity aversion with respect to future income effects of climate policies across regions. For the same group, we find that preferences for co-benefits for current generations reflect a form of altruism, but not inequity aversion. In both cases, the altruistic aspects are moderated by an element of preferences for positive outcomes in own region too. The remaining classes display preferences with a varying focus on impacts in their own region or simply no support for further climate policy. Our results provide some support for the inclusion of social preferences regarding distributional effects of climate change policies in policy assessments, and hence for the significant impact on policy, this inclusion will have.

The primary objective of the study aimed to examine the effectiveness of the 2016 environmental management policy of Zambia in curbing deforestation a case study of Mumbwa District. Specific objectives included assessing the policy's impact on reducing deforestation rates, examining the effectiveness of mitigation interventions in curbing deforestation, and identifying the challenges faced in implementing the policy. A Simple random sampling method research design was employed, integrating both qualitative and quantitative approaches to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the policy's effectiveness. The study utilized purposive sampling to select stakeholders, including policymakers, environmental NGOs, community leaders, and local residents affected by deforestation. The approach ensured that diverse perspectives where captured in relation to the policy's implementation and impact. Data collection methods include literature reviews, stakeholder interviews, questionnaire based surveys, and case studies. Surveys were distributed to gather quantitative data on perceptions of the policy’s effectiveness among various stakeholders, interviews provided qualitative insights into the experiences and challenges faced during implementation. Quantitative data was analyzed using statistical methods to identify trends and correlations related to deforestation rates and policy effectiveness. Qualitative data from interviews were coded and thematically analyzed to extract key themes from the three main objectives; assessing the effectiveness of Policy on reducing Deforestation., examining effectiveness of Mitigation interventions in Deforestation, and challenges the Policy has on Curbing Deforestation. using STATA and Excel. The expected results included a comprehensive evaluation of the policy’s effectiveness in reducing deforestation, identification of significant barriers to its implementation, and insights into stakeholder perceptions regarding the policy's impact on sustainable forest management practices. Based on the findings, recommendations were provided for improving the 2016 Environmental Management Policy. These may include enhancing stakeholder engagement in decision-making processes, strengthening enforcement mechanisms for compliance, and promoting adaptive management strategies that respond to emerging environmental challenges. The study aims to contribute valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders involved in environmental management in Zambia and other developing countries facing similar challenges.

Purpose – Trust in financial institutions has been eroded through the collapse of mortgage-related securities, with confidence further denuded through well publicized cases of rogue traders and rate fixing cases, such as with the Lehman brothers, the Libor rate-fixing scandals, and the hypo real estate breakdown. In response to these events, governments have introduced a range of distinct policy initiatives designed to restore trust in this sector. Thus, the question arises: are these regulations and control mechanisms sufficient in isolation, or are there other elements that this sector needs to pay attention to in efforts to build and sustain customers’ trust? The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – There is a compelling agenda for both financial organizations and academics to understand better organizational trust in this context especially the role and impact of regulatory mechanisms in its development and repair. The paper therefore examines the special facets of the fin...

The impact of policy on the growth of precision medicine

The successive financial crises have highlighted the interdependence between the financial system and the real economy. Prudential measures to limit the negative repercussions of the financial crisis, through the Basel I and Basel II agreements, have shown their limits and the Basel III agreements have consequently integrated the macro-prudential component which aims to ensure the stability of the financial sector as a whole within the economy. The financial stability assessment tool known as the “stress test” has also been developed in various forms and its application to the financial sector, particularly the banking sector, is strongly recommended by the Bank for International Settlements. Indeed, the purpose of this study is to assess the resilience of the Malagasy banking sector to macroeconomic shocks and to evaluate its impact on the capitalization of the banking system through the macroeconomic stress test tool. To do so, we used a dynamic panel model. Non-performing loan forecasts are used to obtain capital projections at both the banking system and bank levels under adverse scenarios. The results show that most banks were able to hold capital above the minimum regulatory threshold of 8% under Basel III standards. However, only one bank fails to meet the minimum capital adequacy threshold. Non-performing loan forecasts are used to obtain capital projections at both the banking system and bank levels under adverse scenarios.