貿易自由化與國家安全：以《海峽兩岸服務貿易協議》為例

In 2004 the United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER) embarked on a large-scale research project on the ‘Impact of Globalization on the World’s Poor’ co-directed by Machiko Nissanke and Erik Thorbecke. The first conference was essentially conceptual in nature, meant to understand better the various mechanisms and channels through which globalization affects the poor either directly or indirectly. The other three conferences focused on each of the major regions of the developing world: Asia, Africa and Latin America. Theobjectivesofthisintroductionarethreefold:first,toreviewbrieflyhow the forces of globalization influence poverty in general; second, to describe and discuss the main transmission channels and mechanisms; and third to analyze the impact of globalization on Africa and present an overview of the six Africa case studies included in this issue. 1. The Impact of Globalization on the World’s Poor Globalization provides a strong potential for a major reduction in poverty in the developing world because it creates an environment conducive to fastereconomicgrowthandtransmissionofknowledge. 1 However,structural factors and policies within the world economy and national economies have impeded the full transmission of the benefits of the various channels of globalization for poverty reduction. In particular sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) hasbeenrelativelylessaffectedbytheforcesofglobalizationthanotherparts of the world. World income distribution continues to be very unequal and many poor countries particularly in Africa are stagnating. Moreover, there is much empirical evidence that openness contributes to more within-country

This research work evaluates the proposition that trade liberalisation is instrumental in pulling FDI inflows to emerging economies. Using panel random effects model on annual data of 6 emerging countries including Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Russian Federation and Turkey from 1996 to 2014, it is found that liberalisation of trade and investment regime measured by trade agreements significantly affect the multinationals' overseas investment decision. Market size, development level and human capital, considered essential by foreign investors, also have a significant positive effect on incoming FDI. Preferential and regional trade agreements increase the openness of a country's economic and investment borders. They reduce duties, taxes, tariffs as well as the inflexibility in regime policies vis-a-vis foreign firm operations. This usually ensue trade and investment liberalisation and consequentially has a positive impact on FDI inflows to these nations. Among trade agreements only the preferential trade agreement is found to be significantly positive. It is plausible given the fact that except for Mexico all other countries selected are far away from the major FDI source nations

本研究旨在透過台灣國內貿易政策的實際案例，深入分析促使社會發展的貿易政治模式，同時也對於現有制度框架內各種行為者（政府、非政府組織、工商團體）進行分析，以瞭解貿易政策制訂的過程與實施，各行為者間之互動與影響，進而深探其意涵與展望。 運用「新制度主義」的分析視角，以「台灣進口美國牛肉問題」及「兩岸服務業貿易協議」為案例，蒐集相關次級資料進行案例分析。從貿易政策的行為者，以各自擁有的權力或活動方式進行互動，及其互動的過程與結果中，瞭解促進社會發展的貿易政治模式。研究結果發現：一、政府貿易政策的提出是以帶動經濟成長為主要考量；二、行為者透過既定的制度框架，影響貿易政策的制定及實施；三、面對經濟成長與社會發展兩者之輕重，是分配問題而非取捨之間。經由本文之論證，瞭解到貿易政策的制訂賦蘊著社會貿易政治的內涵，對於政策的制訂，除了公開透明外，政策制訂實施之後，更需要有完善的監督制度，依此或許可以避免或減少不必要的衝突及疑慮。

After the 30th anniversary of reform and opening, the mainland of China makes achievements in economic growth and business development. It knocks the socks off other countries. The diplomacy thought of Deng Xiaoping has been changed. China has more influence in international affairs and takes part in the world. In the trend of globalization, 2011 was a critical and important year. 2011 was not only the first year of China's 12th five-year plan, but also first year of golden decade of Taiwan. 2011 was also the second year after the cross-strait signed ECFA. There are more than 60 years about the development of cross-strait relation. But the change in recent years has been much more than the past decade. Nowadays, China gets good grades in economic growth and business development. Everyone looks China with new eyes. With the relation development, cross-strait gets cooperation in various areas. Because of the financial storm and high unemployment rate, the job market’s influence of ECFA in Taiwan is concerned by society. This research mainly responses to the global and regional integration trends, keeps the trading advantage of Taiwan and excludes other countries or regions to sign a free trade agreement. Strait signed an economic cooperation framework agreement, ECFA, in June 2010. ECFA early harvest program was implemented in 2011. The cross-strait have not negotiated yet about the commodity items and the trade in services of ECFA. It will overstep the range of ECFA early harvest program. Because of that, it is hardly using the real data to predict the influence to Taiwan. From experiences, the government of Taiwan should do something to protect the traditional and weak industries and to avoid the problem of unemployment. How to lower the negative impact of ECFA and intensify the economic benefits is the research direction of this paper. Nevertheless, any trade liberalization has advantages and disadvantages. ECFA is not a panacea or a miracle drug. But the economic theory tell us that trade liberalization can promote the efficient allocation of resources and lower the gap of commercial trade. It will upgrade the economic benefits on both side. Finally, we try to find the way to protect the sovereignty of Taiwan, raise trade interests, and get the future of Taiwan. This is the summary of the paper.

With over US$ 2.300 million in bilateral trade in the year 2011, Chile and Taiwan have developed strong economic linkages according to market interests and economic complementarity. In the current regional process of trade liberalization in the Asia Pacific, Taiwan is struggling to strike Free Trade Agreements with its trading partners. On the other hand, Chile has been the most active trade liberalization agent in Latin America, being especially active in the Asia Pacific region. The path towards an FTA between them would seem to be an obvious next step if trade liberalization leads to a strengthening of competitiveness for both sides. Why hasn't the step been taken yet? That is because this move towards and FTA would involve as many economic gains- through first mover advantages, avoiding the damages of New Zealand being the first mover, and enhancing complementarity-as politico-economic risks-since Chile's main trading partner is Mainland China. A game of tightrope walking and careful gradual progress will be necessary for Chile to be able to reach economic cooperation agreements with Taiwan, without hurting its situation of vulnerability dependence with Mainland China.

Trade liberalization in recent years has been part of important world agenda in an attempt to create an unlimited relationship. The endogenous growth literature provides persuasive support that stresses the importance of international trade levels for economic growth. This research uses endogenous growth approach to analyze the effect of international trade on manufacturing industry sector of Indonesia, and importantly to find out the impact in relation to trade liberalization in 1985. The panel data is used and the trade deregulation policy is captured by using dummy variable. A piecewise linear regression model is applied. Observation covers 26 manufacturing sectors between 1979 and 1997. In general, the results show that trade variables used to measure productivity growth rate have small effect on output growth. There is also a positive effect of export growth in one year time lag on productivity but it lesser than that of the imported input growth. We confirm that trade deregulation in 1985 contribute to the increase in productivity of the manufacturing sectors, especially the export oriented firms. Nevertheless, the relatively smaller effect of trade variables than production variables can be a sign of low productivity rate in international trade that is expected to lead the growth of Indonesian manufacturing industry. Keywords: Trade liberalization, productivity, growth, Indonesian manufacturing industry.

The purpose of this survey is to review the available empirical evidence on the impacts of agricultural trade liberalization on poverty – considering both the impact of domestic and international liberalization. Since trade liberalization is generally an economywide phenomenon, with tariff cuts occurring across a wide range of commodities, we do not restrict ourselves to episodes where only agricultural trade was liberalized, although emphasis in this survey is given to agricultural trade policies. Furthermore, given the difficulty of isolating the effects of trade policies alone, we will also consider the impact of other types of external shocks which have the effect of changing the relative prices of tradeable and non-tradeable goods. By examining the way in which households adjust to such external shocks, we can learn a great deal about how they would respond to sharp reductions in tariffs, or significant changes in a country’s international terms of trade engendered by multilateral trade liberalization.

With trade liberalization, countries with strict environmental regulations can steer away from polluting industries and put greater emphasis on cleaner industries. They increase the import of the higher polluting products and move the polluting industry abroad, whereby improves their environmental quality. In this regard, Taiwan’s trade regulatory policy has been gradually opened since 1990 and its domestic industrial structure and trade pattern have been greatly changed. The main purpose of this paper is to examine whether Taiwan's polluting industries have been transferred to production in the less developed countries while Taiwan itself goes toward liberalized trade. This assumption has been called the pollution haven hypothesis. We use the 2-digit industry-level panel data of Taiwan’s manufacturing from 1991 to 2003 to study the effect of environmental regulation on trade patterns by regressing panel fixed and random environmental control the industries are under, the higher import portion they have. It shows that Taiwan's industrial structure has already moved toward the cleaner and lower polluting pattern in the last ten years. In addition, the import of polluting-intensive industries increased with the decreasing import tariff, yet this ”indirect pollution haven effect” is not significant. When we separate the import of each industry by OECD countries and non-OECD countries, it is significant that the polluting industries have higher import portion in the regression for the non-OECD countries. Obviously, the non-OECD countries have become the haven of Taiwan's high polluting industries. With the trade liberalized and the import tariff reduced, Taiwan increases the net import of the higher polluting products from the non-OECD countries, while decreasing that from OECD countries. And there are different outcomes for different Taiwan's trade partner in the effect of trade liberalization on pollution havens.

Agriculture has been at the center of conflicts over world trade from the beginning in 1986 of the eighth, Uruguay Round, of multilateral trade negotiations. Yet it is only in the final phases of the Round that linkages from trade to the environment have come to the fore. In this paper, the specific linkages from trade to the environment in the agricultural sector are developed. The impacts of trade flows and policies on environmental quality in agriculture have features which make them unusually difficult to resolve. In many respects, the same domestic agricultural policies at the root of trade distortions also encourage environmental damages. Hence, reforming these domestic and trade policies would be a partial, though not a complete, step in the direction of greater environmental benefits. A complete set of policies will require targeted environmental interventions as well. Market failures in agricultural production and consumption have widespread effects on soil, water, human health, and natural ecosystems which are difficult to monitor and therefore to estimate. These market failures are generally reinforced by government policies which distort the prices of agricultural products and inputs (water, fertilizers, pesticides). These distortions occur in agriculture to a greater extent than in many sectors of both developed and developing countries. Trade flows and policies are a direct result of these domestic distortions. This case study will consider market failures with adverse environmental impacts in agriculture and their interaction with failures in agricultural trade policy in developed and developing countries. Section II develops a theoretical perspective on market and government failures in agriculture. In it, a simple model is discussed which emphasizes the distinction between the welfare effects of trade liberalization with and without appropriately targeted environmental policies. Section III provides some concrete examples of trade flows in agriculture and their environmental impacts in developed and developing countries, and analyzes the domestic policies at the root of distortions in agricultural trade. Section IV considers the likely impact of agricultural trade liberalization on market failures with adverse environmental effects, and the need to integrate environmental and trade policy reforms. Section V discusses the relationship between trade and environmental policy instruments in this context, and proposes some principles to guide trade and environmental policy in the agricultural sector. Section VI offers a summary and some proposed guidelines for the agricultural sector.

This paper argues that different types of trade liberalization { multilateral versus regional { may lead to different R&D and productivity levels of firms. Trade agreements between countries are modelled with a network: nodes represent countries and a link between the nodes indicates the existence of a trade agreement. In this framework, the multilateral trade agreement is represented by the complete network while the overlap of regional trade agreements is represented by the hub-and-spoke trade system. Trade liberalization, which increases the network of trade agreements, reinforces the incentives for firms to invest in R&D through the creation of new markets (scale effect) but it may also dampen these incentives through the emergence of new competitors (competition effect). The joint action of these two effects within the multilateral and the regional trade systems gives rise to the result that, for the same number of direct trade partners, the R&D effort of a country in the multilateral agreement is lower than the R&D effort of a hub but higher than the R&D effort of a spoke. This suggests that a "core" country within the regional trade system has higher R&D and productivity level than a country with the same number of trade agreements within the multilateral system whereas the opposite is true for a "periphery" country. Additionally, the paper finds that while multilateral trade liberalization boosts productivity of all countries, regional trade liberalization increases productivity of core economies but may decrease productivity of periphery economies if the level of competition in the new trade partner countries of the periphery economy is "too high". Furthermore, the aggregate level of R&D activities within the multilateral trade agreement exceeds that in the star { the simplest representative of the hub-and-spoke trade system.

This paper examines the relationship between trade liberalization and wage inequality for 50 U.S. states during the period from 1999 to 2008. The Difference-in-Differences and fixed effects methods are employed to evaluate the effect of trade liberalization on wage inequality in the U.S. states. Empirical results reveal that trade liberalization and de-unionization do increase the wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers. Evidence shows skill-biased technological change has no significant impact on rising wage inequality. As Difference-in-Differences estimation on time-series cross sectional data involves many years, the conventional standard errors often understate the standard deviation of the estimators. This paper employs the standard bootstrapping procedure and the clustering error procedure to correct the problem, and all sign patterns still hold.

The Current Conjuncture: In Summary Form A brief overview of some of important features of current conjuncture which demonstrates interconnectedness between global and hemispheric trade regimes, evolving CARICOM Single Market and Economy and gendered realities of women and men, is a useful way to begin this discussion. During 1980s, overall economic policy environment Caribbean was characterized by economic reforms which moved through stabilization to structural adjustment The IDB (1998:1) notes that in countries such as Jamaica and Guyana, acute economic situation required comprehensive adjustment strategies which involved harsh austerity measures, supported by loans from IMF and World Bank. Other countries such as Grenada and Suriname, designed their own home grown adjustment early 199Os, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Haiti and Trinidad and Tobago were pursuing various types of structural adjustment programmes. The Structural Adjustment Programmes (SAPs) undertaken region included trade liberalization, tax reform, privatization, reduced government involvement economic activities, as well as reduced budgetary support for critical social services and infrastructure. As globalization process intensified, and global trade policy was increasingly determined by a complex of multilateral trade agreements, room for Caribbean countries to manoeuvre policy options was increasingly restricted. By 1992, countries of Caribbean Basin had already taken first step towards free trade by signing Framework Agreements on Trade and Investment, with United States. The groundwork for this step had already been prepared, as many countries had begun a process of trade liberalization mid to late 1980s largely as part of policy conditionalities linked to structural adjustment agreements with multilateral agencies such as World Bank and International Monetary Fund. (Wedderburn 1998: 24). The economic reform process with trade liberalization as a major focus, proceeded more rapidly, more comprehensively under WTO after 1995. With limited policy options, limited resource base and productive capacity, small size and, some cases, a debt burden, among other problems, Caribbean nations saw a trade and investment agreement with United States as an attractive option. Any other option, as attempted even tentatively by Jamaica, Grenada and Guyana, was viewed with much disquiet and suspicion by United States, major trading and donor partner of several CARICOM countries. In 1995, against this background, CARICOM governments like most others of world, signed on to Beijing Platform of Action. With this act, they committed to improving conditions of life and opportunities for women several specific areas. Some are relevant to multilateral and regional trading agreements. Specifically, paragraph 165 (k) reads: the governments: seek to ensure that national policies related to international and regional trade agreements do not have an adverse impact on women's new and traditional activities. Ten years later, there is a growing recognition that little progress has been made most countries towards fulfilling these commitments. Instead, extremes of poverty and wealth are now more evident. In CARICOM countries, fiscal policy as part of economic reforms impacted social policy, and resulting redistribution of budgetary resources associated with these reforms seriously affected resources available for health, education and critical subsidies for various social Given socially defined roles of women, they ended up being 'de facto' providers of those social services no longer supplied by public sector. More recently, 2000, governments of world adopted Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). These goals are being used as an important instrument for guiding policy Caribbean towards achievement of a number of specific goals and targets. …

Agricultural trade policies in the new millennium

Vietnam' s integration with the global economy has accelerated in recent years. Vietnam became a member of ASEAN in 1995 joined APEC in 1998 and has applied for membership in the WTO. Various commitments to trade liberalization have been made under bilateral and multilateral trade agreements and will be carried out in coming years. The ongoing trade reforms will significantly change Vietnam' s highly protective trade regimes and bring about profound implications on the economy. In this paper we have used a computable general equilibrium(CGE)model to assess the impacts of unilateral trade liberalization at both macro and sectoral levels and examine the role of complementary policies. The simulation results have indicated that tariff reductions cause a decline in GDP but the overall output loss is small. Capital producing industries and public services suffer considerable losses while export‑oriented industries experience a significant expansion. Sustaining the fiscal revenue mitigate the negative effects of tariff cuts on public services and reduce the output loss. Currency devaluation appears to have a strong impact on exports imports and the trade balance.

Technologies supporting the process of educating police personnel have become an indispensable element of the infrastructure of police schools. The primary source of financing for the technologies built is the National Center for Research and Development. In consultation with the Minister of National Defense and the minister competent for internal affairs, the institution carries out activities related to research for the benefit of state security and defense. In competitions for specifically defined research topics, projects that promise the most considerable real increase in national security are financed. The programs and projects being implemented aim not only to increase the Polish scientific and industrial entities’ potential but also to strive for technological independence by creating Polish “know-how” in critical technologies in the area of national security and defense. The article presents technologies supporting the training process of traffic officers developed by Polish scientific and industrial consortia. The first presented trainer is Simulator Supporting the Training of Police Officers in the Implementation of Activities at the Scene of a Road Accident (project no. DOB-BIO9/06/01/2018). On the other hand, the second training solution presented in the article is the Emergency Vehicle Driving Simulator During Typical and Extreme Operations (project no. OROB 001101/ID/11/1). The mentioned projects were co-financed by the National Center for Research and Development as part of a competition for the implementation and financing projects in the field of scientific research or development work for the national defense and security.